Round 21


Data to be added 2.00AM Friday 17 Aug 2012 EST

Round 21, 2012

Scores after round 20 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 7 and cumulative: 129 winners (including bonus 2 points) and slipped back slightly from 12,499 to 12,777 out of 73,164 tipsters. Streak:  tipped 5 of 5 certs correctly. 
The streak is now up to a healthy 16.

50/50 tips: correct for the round (Tigers won by over ), so now at 12 out of 20 = 60% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Sportingbet’s free Accumulator comp (This is like the Herald Sun 2011 weighted tipping):  7.77 points for the round and dropped back from 1,231 to 1,366 out of 11,857 tipsters.

Early thoughts for R21 (added Wed 15 Aug 2012):  The certs for the round appear to be Sydney (over the dog-tired Dogs) and Hawks (over the Suns) on Sunday.  With more injuries to the Giants, the Dees are now certs as well.  The Eagles look like certs as well.  
In the other games, keen (at this early stage) on the Cats, Dockers and Pies.  
The Dons / Blues game is a tough one and will need to see the teams before deciding.



Game                  Tip      By     Variance       Outsider is

GEEL V STK GEEL 25 HIGH Saints a small chance
ESS V CARL CARL 3 EXTREME Dons a huge chance
GWS V MELB MELB 67 HIGH Giants no hope
FREO V RICH FREO 27 EXTREME Tigers a small hope
COLL V NMFC COLL 27 EXTREME Roos a small chance
BRIS V ADEL ADEL 22 HIGH Lions a chance
PORT V WCE WCE 40 HIGH Port no hope
WBD V SYD SYD 60 HIGH Dogs no hope
HAW V SUNS HAW 120 HIGH Suns won’t shine



Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

Psychological: includes teams about to peak or drop in form, players coming into form after injury, technical analysis observations, whether a team is really UP for the game or, alternatively, horribly flat; and other things not covered by the other categories.

Accumulator: is the same as the old Herald Sun weighted tip.  You pick a winner and the comp (Sportingbet, in this case) gives you the bookies odds for tipping the winner.  EG: in round 10 ESS v MELB, you would have got a score of 1.04 for tipping the Bombers and 12.00 for tipping the Dees.



The Cats to win

The Cats team looks much better this week with 5 big “ins” plus Hawkins recovering to play.  The biggest doubts of the 5 are Chappy and West.  West may be the more important one to watch for team balance purposes.  Smedts will miss again.

The odds shortening with the bookies early in the week suggested that Riewoldt wasn’t going to play and that the Cats would regain a few.  This proved correct.

For the Saints, Stanley (returning from a hammie) is an emergency. Blake returns from injury, having last played AFL in R14 and a half in the 2s last weekend.  Expect him to be underdone, but they may need him with the Cats’ tall forwards.

Jones was a late withdrawal last week to play 2s and he remains there.  Maybe he is carrying a niggle!!  His tagging could have been a bonus vs Geelong.

The Saints will be slightly marked down in psych for their drop-off late last week vs the Dees (although percentage is not an issue for them right now – it is wins).

The risk with several players returning for Geelong and a question mark over Blake makes this almost an extreme variance game.

Just enough variance to refrain from labelling the Cats as certs.


If you can delay tour tips, watch for the late team changes (about 1 goal for any key player out)

Maths (in points)

Ability:   GEEL + 12 POINTS

Home Ground:  Even

Current Form:  GEEL + 4

Freshness:  GEEL + 1 (longer break, but trip back from Perth)

Team Changes:  GEEL + 1

Pyschological:  GEEL + 6

Injuries:  GEEL + 1

Total: Cats by 25 points

Accumulator tip: GEEL (just) ~ 1.33


Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 25 points and they won by 42.  Analysis was pretty good, but the Saints ran into problems during the game.  They subbed off Come On Kozzie, Come On early in 3Q then Stanley (a little underdone anyway) copped a nasty rib injury.  So they were always likely to run out of steam; in fact, they did so at the end of 3Q (without great penalty) and 4Q (where they got blown away).  In the end, the right calls were made and the scoring patterns plus Saint injuries justifies the non-cert label for Geelong.



The Blues in a tough one to pick.  Avoid this game if you can!!

The Bombers were really dreadful last week and there is a possibility that their confidence is now totally shot.  If so, they won’t win again this year (as they don’t play a really down and out team again). However, if the confidence has any sort of pulse, they will be boosted by the return of 3 top players from injury.  Crameri and Monfries will be better for one run back from an injury.  Hooker returns after a week’s rest. He was dropped after R19, but Bendigo had the bye last week.

But how right are they?  Zaharakis wasn’t expected until next week and could be the key.  The doubt is about how well he can run out the game after last playing in R10. Then there is Ryder, who has missed 4 and Stanton 2.  So this may make the Bombers vulnerable.

Jamison was a test, but didn’t make it back.  But, in recent weeks that have got back Murphy, Simpson, Robinson, Waite, Walker and now Judd.  Robinson will be improved by the run last week.  The only trouble with the Blues’ injuries now is that they all seem to be defenders (Jamison, Henderson, Laidler and Rowe) and rucks (Hampson and Warnock).  This makes the Blues vulnerable down back with Hurley and Ryder as forward marking targets.  And they also tended to drop off a little last week vs Brisbane.  The week prior, they were okay against the Swans, but Sydney had been up for a long time.

Ellard is blitzing in the 2s but only an emergency this time.

This game has EXTREME variance written all over it.  A team that gets a decent break may go right on with it.  So we will have 2 bob each way and go for the Blues narrowly, but Dons as the Accumulator tip

Forecast: Rain, windy, cold

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ESS + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:  Even

Current Form:  CARL + 2

Freshness:  CARL + 4

Team Changes:  ESS + 1

Pyschological:  CARL + 1

Injuries:  CARL + 3

Total: Blues by 3 points

Accumulator tip:  ESS ~ 2.15

Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 3 points and they won by 96.  Analysis was good in one respect, otherwise not flash.

The evidence for the Bombers having a shocker was there, but it was not given enough “weight”.  There was the shocker against North and then too many players coming back all at once.  Ryder, Stanton and Zaharakis all performed below par.  Add to this the injuries to Fletcher & Carlisle.  Then Hurley didn’t look fully fit (according to and we get to the BEST part of the analysis – the EXTREME VARIANCE call.  Pity Torch Magee on the Coodabeens didn’t read that part before doing his bit on the radio show.  To quote just above:

A team that gets a decent break may go right on with it.

That was certainly true!



The Dees to win well

Melbourne’s road form has not been great.  Their form everywhere has been ordinary, in fact.  This game is being played in Canberra, which puts the home team (Giants) on the road for the 2nd week in a row.   This also happened to them in R6&7 when they beat the Suns in the capital.  But that day the Suns played injured players and suffered as a result.  The 2nd week syndrome will be a negative for GWS this week.

Luke Power plays his 300th game (almost all of them for the Lions).  While they may want to play well for him, their constant team changes won’t help.  Despite 1 or 2 good ones coming back, they lose 5 players who all performed well last week.  And still no Palmer & Ward.  The big minus is that they are losing players at a greater rate than replacing them.

The artist formerly known as Junior McDonald plays his last game against his old team.

For Melbourne, still no Martin & Jamar.  Moloney dropped and not an emergency.  He was red vested last week. May have a niggle of sorts.

Forecast: Possible shower, cold, wind change some time in the day

Maths (in points)

Ability:  MELB + 30 POINTS

Home Ground:  GWS + 12

Current Form:  MELB + 11

Freshness:  MELB + 6

Team Changes:  MELB + 12

Pyschological:  Even

Injuries:  MELB + 20

Total: Dees by 67 points and BIG certs

Accumulator tip:  MELB ~ 1.20

Post Match Review:  Dees were tipped by 67 points and they won by 25.  Analysis was a bit off in this instance.  This is 3 times the Giants have outperformed expectations in Canberra.  It seems more like their home than Sydney.  The Dees were seemingly on target for a huge win at 3QT, but kicked 2:5 to 5:0 in the last.  And maybe one shouldn’t get too excited about lower teams when they travel interstate (especially with a record as bad as that of Melbourne).

Still, the “cert” label was correct.



The Dockers to keep the dream alive

Last week, Fyfe may have got the living suitcases belted out of him by his coach.  But he’s back.  Sandilands is an emergency, but don’t expect anything sneaky necessarily.  Griffin is doing well in his absence.

The Dockers really ought to be certs here, but the fact that the Tigers are on a bit of a roll and Freo were ordinary last weekend signals “caution”.   And enough caution to make this an EXTREME variance game.

Richmond’s good win last week, however, was against a depleted Dogs’ team last week which lost Griffen just before the bounce.

Forecast: Sunny, light winds, warm

Maths (in points)

Ability:   Even

Home Ground: FREO + 24

Current Form:  FREO + 1

Freshness:  FREO + 3

Team Changes:  FREO + 6

Pyschological:  RICH + 9

Injuries:  FREO + 2

Total: Dockers by 27 points

Accumulator tip:  FREO ~ 1.38

Post Match Review:  Dockers were tipped by 27 points and they won by 22.  Analysis was fairly close and so all good, but just a question about whether the variance should have been extreme???  Maybe “high” was the correct reading.  The late change Griffin to Sandilands was genuine, and didn’t really affect the game one way or tother.



The Pies should be hot enough to win

The Roos’ win last weekend was terrific in adversity.  They lost Wells and Adams in 1Q and still managed to overrun a disappointing Dons.

Trouble is, this type of win can really take it out of a team.   There are other examples, but the only one that comes clearly to mind is Hawthorn 1990 when they lost Brereton and Dunstall to serious injuries in R9 vs Melbourne (that year Melbourne eventually bat the Hawks in an elimination final).  The Hawks were 14 points down at QT, but drew away to win by 44 points.  It was possibly their greatest win of the year.   But the next week, the Hawks played Fitzroy (who struggled that year) and Fitzroy won in a huge upset by 14 points.

Expect the Roos to be a little flat this week after their recent heroics.

North has lost its past four games to Collingwood by an average of 80.5 points.     This recent record will not really help them this week.

The Pies had a few sore players last weekend.  Their win was similar to that of the Roos, but not nearly as dramatic.  So they should recover (mentally) more quickly.

The uncertainties about the ability of each team to get up after last week makes this an EXTREME variance game, so the Pies are no certs.  But they are clearly the tip.

Maths (in points)

Ability: COLL + 18 POINTS

Home Ground:  Even

Current Form:  COLL + 2

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  NMFC + 3

Pyschological:  COLL + 7

Injuries:  COLL + 3

Total: Pies by 27 points

Accumulator tip:  COLL ~ 1.32 (just, but Roos at 3.5 is tempting)

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 27 points but the Roos won by 30.  Analysis was a fair way off.  Thankfully, the variance was (correctly) labelled as EXTREME and so the Pies were never going to be called certs.  There was a report that a few Pie players were sore after last week’s win in Sydney.  This was largely ignored, regrettably.  Pendelbury, Clarke and Jolly were listed and they all performed below expectations.  Losing Toovey before the game didn’t help.  The same goes for Maxwell (Collingwood’s traffic cop in defence), who went off in 3Q.   Furthermore, the R20 win by the Roos seemed to inspire, rather than flatten them.  Where to from here?  Onwards and upwards; or some sort of coming back to earth??



The Crows in a slight danger game

Here is a chance for Tippett to audition in Qld.  Rumours abound about him “heading home” next year.  He plays his first game since a brief stint in R17.  Porplyzia still hasn’t returned, but the list is fairly healthy otherwise.   The forecast of low humidity is a plus for Adelaide.  The Crows next play the Dees (again, away) and then an easy one at home vs the Suns.  They will most likely need to win all 3 to secure a top 2 spot and a home final in week 1.

For Brisbane, Maguire is back but may be in some doubt.  They fought back well late against Carlton, but it is unclear if the Blues are really flying or not – we may know after this weekend.

The Crows should really win this one, but they are not totally convincing.  And the Lions are just dangerous enough to make this a risky game.

Forecast: Sunny (in the daytime), moderate winds, low humidity

Maths (in points)

Ability: ADEL + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: BRIS + 18

Current Form: ADEL + 11

Freshness:  ADEL + 3

Team Changes:  ADEL + 3

Pyschological:  ADEL + 2

Injuries:  ADEL + 3

Total: Crows by 22 points

Accumulator tip:  BRIS ~ 4.60

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 22 points but the Lions won by 10.  Analysis was fair in this instance.  Most had pencilled din a win for the Crows and, while the Crows were tipped, they were too highly fancied by the experts.   That’s why the Lions were tipped in the Accumulator at a juicy 4.80 (eventually).  The margin tipped probably should have been smaller due to Tippett coming back after such a long lay-off and with Cloke-like controversy hanging over him.  Still, how the Crows lost after being 6 goals up is a mystery.  Maybe they got ahead of themselves (in this match) and were already planning for the future.



The Eagles are going well enough to beat Port

Port was competitive early last weekend in Tassie, but fell away badly vs Hawks late in the game.

This is a bad sign for a lowly club.  It points to them having no hope this weekend.  Their injury list is longer than Al Capone’s rap sheet and a home game next week against the Lions is their only chance to notch another win.

Surjan is still not back despite being considered likely.

The Eagles aren’t firing fully yet, both Butler and Rosa failed to make it back.  But they will have enough firepower to get the job done vs Port.

Forecast: Possible shower, light winds, cool

Maths (in points)

Ability: WCE + 30 POINTS

Home Ground:  PORT + 21

Current Form: WCE + 14

Freshness:  WCE + 3

Team Changes:  PORT + 1

Pyschological:  WCE + 13

Injuries:  WCE + 2

Total: Eagles by 40 points

Accumulator tip:  WCE ~ 1.13

Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by 40 points and they won by 48.  Analysis was good here, but nothing too difficult.  If anything, the Eagles missed on a chance for s big percentage with Boak a late withdrawal for Port and then Port going a man down when Moore went off with a hammie around 3QT



The Swans by streets

The Swans had won 9 in a row before Pies match.  They were slowing down vs Blues 2 weeks ago (a sign that they had been up too long and were due for a loss).  Then they underperformed a little against the Pies and lost.  The technical charts suggest a big spike in form this weekend.

However, in the past 4 years, the Swans have lost following their home loss to the Pies.  But this is the easiest assignment they have faced as a follow-up opponent.
Balancing up these two facts, the first is the stronger lead.

The Dogs have their best “ins” for the year.  Cooney will be watched with interest, but he has been a shadow of his best form this season.

Despite the good “ins”, Pearce and Williams failed to come up from injury.

Goodes had a shocker against Collingwood and expect him to excel this week.  Swans like Etihad and will win by a fair margin

Maths (in points)

Ability: SYD + 42 POINTS

Home Ground:  WBD + 12

Current Form: SYD + 18

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  WBD + 10

Pyschological:  SYD + 14

Injuries: SYD + 8

Total: Swans by 60 points

Accumulator tip:  SYD ~ 1.05

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 60 points and they won by 82.  Analysis was pretty good here as the experts were tipping around 8 goals and we were closer.  Easy winner to tip given the Dogs’ woes.  It is interesting that the Pies played the Swans last week.  This week, the Swans fell out of the blocks before powering home, while the Pies blitzed early and were then overrun.  Hmmmmmm?



Aint no Sunshine

The Suns lost Smith, Rischitelli, Hunt, Prestia and Day last week (but played a depleted Giants team and won).  This week, they get none of them back and also lose Allen, Patrick, Swallow and Aaron Hall to injury while McKenzie cops a 1 week club suspension.

That’s 10 players lost in 2 weeks.

And Russell is still not back either.

Here is a positive for the Suns:  the Hawks will be wearing their special Kokoda jumper.  That should confuse a few of them when looking to give the ball off under pressure.

The only interest here is margin and “is Buddy right this time”

The experts have set the margin at around 100 and the Hawks could win by more, depending on the weather and the condition of the ground.  Oh, and there is a small chance they may rest 1 or 2 from the selected side.

Forecast: Maybe a few showers, cold

Maths (in points)

Ability: HAW + 54 POINTS

Home Ground: HAW + 18

Current Form: HAW + 20

Freshness: Even

Team Changes:  HAW + 18

Pyschological:  SUNS + 12

Injuries:  HAW + 22

Total: Hawks by 120 points (less if very wet) and CERTS of the week

Accumulator tip:  HAW ~ 1.01

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 120 points and they won by 64.  Analysis was a bit adventurous, perhaps – especially when Mitchell and Franklin were late withdrawals.  And the Hawks didn’t seem greatly interested for much of the match.  Wearing the combat gear didn’t help them and the Swans certainly had a better lead-in to next week’s game.  Hawk fans better hope that they were only half going against an injury-weakened Suns outfit.



Best cert: Hawks (obviously), Dees, Swans and Eagles (all won easily)

Best Outsider Dons, if you call them an outsider (they were dreadful!); small chances to the Lions (great come from behind win) and Roos (tremendous effort)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Don’t normally like to get excited about a lowly team on the road, but Dees to win by more than 6 goals against a battling Giants outfit (always looked likely but dropped off late in the game)

Happy tipping!  If you are on top or near the top, just pick the Bombers vs Blues correctly.  Other than this game, round 22 is a better round to make ground on the leaders.