Round 22, 2013

Round 22, 2013

Scores after round 21 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp.

Tips correct: 8 for a score of 136 (132 real winners + 4 bonus points) and improved from 11,734 to 9,269 out of 66,749 tipsters.

Accumulator: 7.85 (just so-so) for a total of 164.98 and dropped back slightly 1,993 to 1,998 out of 11,800 tipsters

Last Man Standing Comp: Eliminated in R14

NOTE: for those still “alive” in the Sportinbgbet free Last Man Standing comp changed from R13 onwards. Those “alive”, they have to pick the “line”.  These “lines” are subject to change, but you will get the “line” applicable at the time you enter your selection. Streak:  tipped 3 of 3 certs correctly – streak now up to 32 (with Lions, Dockers and Swans all winning).  Once again, the tips weren’t hard this week, but the key was to avoid tipping the Tigers who were hotly fancied to beat Carlton.  By doing this, the ranking improved from 179 to 114 out of 66,781 tipsters

50/50 tips: 0 out of 2 correct for the round (OUCH)
Wrong:  The Lions and Swans didn’t win by enough
so now at 21 out of 48 = a poor 44% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Early thoughts for R22:  There are quite a few certs this week:  Pies, Crows and Tigers.  Slight favourites Cats, Saints and Lions look the goods at this stage.  The Dockers will be highly fancied, but they are not rated as total certs.  The Hawks face a danger game against the Roos and who knows what the Bombers will dish up this week – but the Blues will be the outright tip.

A quick note for those close to the lead in footy tipping comps: the favourites all look fairly likely to win, so picking them is a good ploy to stay on top or to protect 2nd or 3rd prize money.  In the 50/50 game (Saints vs Suns), it is STRONGLY recommended that you tip the Saints.  For those who need a surprise winner, the best options (in order) are: Roos, Bombers (but who knows what they are going to do this time), Dogs and Swans.

Games                  Tip / By    Variance       Outsider is:
1 COLL V WCE     COLL 63     HIGH           no hope at all
2 ADEL V MELB   ADEL 44     HIGH           no hope at all
3 NMFC V HAW    HAW  22      EXTREME   a small chance
4 GEEL V SYD      GEEL 25     HIGH           a small chance
5 CARL V ESS      CARL 20     EXTREME   some chance
6 FREO V PORT   FREO 29     HIGH           a small chance
7 STK V SUNS      STK   29      HIGH           a small chance
8 GWS V RICH      RICH 45      HIGH           no hope at all
9 BRIS V WBD      BRIS  26      EXTREME   a small chance

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions



1 COLL V WCE    
The Pies by plenty

The big thing to note on this game is the rest periods between games each team has to deal with.  Last week, the Pies played the Hawks off 2 x 6 days breaks and a trip interstate.  The Hawks had a 6 and 7 day break from Friday to Friday and all game sin Melbourne.

Now the Pies get a 7 day break, whereas the Eagles have 2 x 6 day breaks.  This, on top of form issues and home ground advantage, means that the Pies are the CERTS of the WEEK.   And any last hurrah by the Eagles is likely to come in R23 when Embley (dropped for this game) is expected to play his 250th and final game before his home crowd.

The Eagles team looks a little better this week, but nowhere near enough to be threatening.

The Pies are on a good, shocker, 3rd week pattern and they would be expected (as a top team) to slightly outperform expectations at this time of year.  Also, the Eagles are on the same pattern.  But they, as a middle of the road team, would be expected to underperform by 5 goals or so.

Finally, Wellingham (an ex Pie – can we call him a pasty?) and Lynch get to play against each other, after swapping clubs.  They are 12 and 21.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  COLL + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: COLL + 21

Current Form:   COLL + 10

Team Changes:  WCE + 6

Psychological:    COLL + 12

Freshness:    COLL + 12

Injuries:     WCE + 2

Total:     Pies by 63 points and CERTS of the WEEK
Accumulator tip:  COLL ~ 1.13

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 63 points and they won by 62.  Analysis was beautiful.  The Magpies were correctly tipped as the CERTS of the WEEK.  It should be noted that Beams was a late withdrawal for the Pies and Ball went off injured and was subbed off at HT.  This was offset by the injuries to Darling (who was subbed out early 3Q) and Wellingham.  Basically, the experts got this one wrong. Also, the good week, shocker, 3rd week pattern for each team confirmed the Pies as a top team and the Eagles as a middle of the road outfit.




The Crows look like certs this time

The Crows looked set for a handy win last week when almost 4 goals up in 3Q, but they were overrun by the slobbering Dogs.   They will be keen to atone for that fade-out.  Laird was expected to miss this week, but has been named.

Meanwhile, the Dees had a dignified player retirement during the week when Aaron Davey announced he will be hanging up the boots at year’s end.  This is a positive sign that which could give the players a boost.  But it is not enough to make them winners this weekend.  Maybe it could see them being competitive.  Now for the negative.  They are on a good week, shocker, 3rd week pattern.  This often leads to a big underperformance in the 3rd week – which would equate to something like a 15 goal thrashing in this instance.  But the positive news above may offset this.  On exposed data, we will call it a draw

Their team looks better now with Frawley and Dawes back in.  But they won’t win.

Maths (in points)

Ability: ADEL + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: ADEL + 16

Current Form:   ADEL + 13

Team Changes:  MELB + 6

Psychological:    EVEN

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     MELB + 3

Total:     Crows by 44 points and CERTS
Accumulator tip:  ADEL ~ 1.01

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 44 points and they won by 68.  Analysis was just okay.  At least the Crows won like certs.  The experts had predicted a 10 goal win and this was about right.  In actual terms, the Dees underperformed by 6 points.  This slightly justified the good week, shocker, 3rd week theory (which suggests that they would underperform – but by about 5 goals).  But the more likely explanation is that the positive mentioned above ALMOST offset the negative technical chart.





The Hawks should do it

The last time these teams played, the Hawks were expected to win easily.  As it was, they just fell over the line.  Back then, the injury quotient was Roos 6 vs Hawks 11.  This time, things are more in favour of the Hawks, as it is Roos 14, Hawks 7.  In fact, the Hawks are less injured now than in any time for the year.  This fact should be enough to help them get over the line against a lower rated Roos outfit.  Shiels still hasn’t made it back from the VFL.

But there is some uncertainty.  They would have had a BIG build-up to the Magpies’ game.  They won that on a Friday night and there is the chance that they could relax slightly after a nice weekend off.  Also, the Roos may think that they were “robbed” in their last match-up and may mark this down as their grand final (although beating the Pies in R23 would also be enticing).

Of note is that Scott Thompson didn’t make it back and is actually out for the year.   Ziebell has been selected but might be a risk.

Maths (in points)

Ability: HAW + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: NMFC + 3

Current Form:   EVEN

Team Changes:  NMFC + 2

Psychological:    NMFC + 6

Freshness:    HAW + 3

Injuries:     HAW + 6

Total:     Hawks by 22 points
Accumulator tip:  HAW ~ 1.33 (but Roos at 3.35 is tempting)

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 22 points and they won by 14.  Analysis was quite good and, fortunately, the temptation to select the Roos in the Accumulator was just resisted.  The EXTREME variance call was justified.  The Hawks went from leading to about 3 goals down in 1Q, then back to level, then worse than 4 goals down, back to 3 goals up and finally winning by 14 points.  The early sub out of Shiels (a late replacement for Jordan Lewis) didn’t help the Hawks.  But the Roos also lost Adams before the game (replaced by big name player Sierakowski), then Tarrant, Wright and McMillan also copped injuries late in the game.  A positive for North is that Ziebell (under an injury cloud) managed to get up and do well..



The Cats to win at home

The Swans have a problem.  And the concern is that they have had too many best 22 players out for too long.  Goodes, Jetta, LRT and Reid have all been out for ages.  Shaw is finally getting back to form, but Rohan will need more time.  Despite having a good win against the Saints last week, they missed a chance to totally crunch them.  It will be a top effort if they can beat the Cats at KP this time.  But they were the last side to do so (in late 2011).

The Cats may be vulnerable, however, as they are bringing back Hawking and Chappy.  Motlop was subbed out with hammie tightness last week and is allegedly okay.  A Sydney victory may come if something goes wrong with any of these early.

Then again, Tippett may be a small risk as well after being subbed out in 4Q last week.

The Cats should win this one, but the confidence is insufficient to call them certs.

Maths (in points)

Ability: GEEL + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: GEEL + 18

Current Form:   GEEL + 5

Team Changes:   EVEN

Psychological:    SYD + 3

Freshness:    SYD + 3

Injuries:     GEEL + 2

Total:     Cats by 25 points
Accumulator tip:  GEEL ~ 1.45

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 25 points and they won by 44.  Analysis was very good.  Firstly, the experts only tipped the Cats by about 2 goals.  Nest, the Swans had several injury concerns during the game – which blew out the margin somewhat.  Shaw was off early with an ACL, then Hannebery went off with a sore knee in 2Q, but managed to play out the game.  Then Smith also had a knee issue.  The Cats had a few injury concerns of their own, with Motlop (nose bleed, perhaps, afte flying high) and Vardy having some problems, while Tommy Hawkins was subbed off at 3QT with only 26 SC points.  Still, the Swans were worse off in terms of injuries.  Note also that Tippett (under an injury cloud – see above) struggled with the first goal of the game, then no more and only 39 SC points





The Blues, but who knows what the Bombers might bring to the table

The Blues looked great after QT last weekend, but the Tigers had significant injury problems last weekend.  So the Carlton win needs to be put into perspective.

Their form has been patchy over recent week.  The Richmond win aside, their only good efforts since the R13 bye was R17 (narrow win over the Roos) and R18 (big win over the Suns).  In those matches, Henderson and Kreuzer starred, while Carrazzo was playing.  Now Carrazzo is out, while Henderson has dropped off a little.  And Kreuzer returns.  But Garlett (expected to be okay0 hasn’t mad eit back.

Now a look at the Bombers!  It would help a lot to get inside the players heads.  This cannot be done, so the trick is to try to get a gauge (that’s “gage” for you Americans) on their mindset from snippets of news.  This does NOT involve reading the legal documents on the web.  A lawyer can do that.

The AFL website has a story about an unnamed footy mum saying her son (who plays for the Dons) is thinking of quitting the game because of all the stress.  This would suggest that a quick rebound is unlikely.  But the player is more likely to be a fringe player and not on big money.

(click on the link if needed and then hit the GO BACK arrow to return back here)

The question becomes: when, if at all, will the Bombers hit some sort of form this year?  If there was going to be a pre-finals game that would bring out the best in them, then a Carlton game would be it.  They really don’t like the Blues.

Crameri should be improved after getting a hit on the head last week first up from an injury lay-off. 

And, although the patience with the Bombers is wearing thin, they will be (for the last time if they put in a shocker) be tipped in the Accumulator.  Variance is EXTREME

Maths (in points)

Ability:  EVEN

Home Ground: ESS + 3 POINTS

Current Form:  CARL + 10

Team Changes:  ESS + 1

Psychological:    CARL + 12

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     CARL + 2

Total:     Blues by 20 points
Accumulator tip:  ESS ~ 3.15 (but Blues at 1.36 was considered)

Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 20 points but the Dons won by 6.  Analysis was reasonably okay in this instance.  It was virtually impossible to tip the Dons to win with any confidence, but the key was really whether to give them a chance.  A chance they were given, indeed, and they were also tipped in the Accumulator (yippee!!).  But some factors need to be considered.  Firstly, Kreuzer and Walker were both late withdrawals for the Blues (replaced by Duigan and Joseph).  This had a big influence on the game.  Kreuzer, especially, has been crucial in the 2nd half of the season for the Blues.  Next, McLean was subbed off in 1Q.  And Jamieson played after hurting his shoulder early in the game.  When 3QT time came, the Bombers seemed to have a few sore players and were 17 points down.

But they were able to roll over the top of the Blues.  The scoring fluctuations (not to mention the uncertainty about the Dons’ mindset – oops, just mentioned it) justified the EXTREME variance call.  There were 8 lead changes and the Dons went from around 2 goals down to 2 goals up to 20 points down.  They were 3 goals down at the 9 minute mark of 4Q but still managed to win.  Put the win down to Stephanie Hird.  All in all, the tips were justified.




The Dockers are almost certs

Port could play this one either way:
A: go flat out and hope to win (which is what we all, as fans, would like to see them attempt); or
B: take it easy and save themselves for R23 vs Blues.

It seems that they have chosen option A, judging by the team selections.

Cassisi (something you buy in a gelati shop) is still not back from a hammie.

The Dockers do not have the luxury of dropping a game now.  Almost any loss would mean the home final in week 1 would disappear.  Nonetheless, they will be hot favourites to win this one.  Ballantyne has been named, but may require a test.

The Dockers are almost CERTS, but not quite.

Maths (in points)

Ability: FREO + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: FREO + 21

Current Form:   FREO + 12

Team Changes:  PORT + 3

Psychological:    PORT + 18

Freshness:    PORT + 3

Injuries:     FREO + 2

Total:     Dockers by 29 points
Accumulator tip:  FREO ~ 1.17

Post Match Review:  Dockers were tipped by 29 points and they won by 74.  Analysis was quite a long way off.  With hindsight, the Dockers were really genuine certs.  Perhaps the notion that Port would drop off dramatically if they get well behind (which happened VERY EARLY) should have been given more consideration.  To help Freo further, Ballantyne was actually fit to play and did well.  And while Suban was subbed off in 2Q with a hammie, Port was worse off with injuries to both Wingard and Ebert.  The positive is that the tips were correct.





The Saints to eclipse the Suns

The Saints have been competitive of late in most games of late, without getting close to a win.  Hayes coming back is a bonus, but Gwilt is still out.

The Suns’ injury list is a bit longer than that of the Saints.  This had been made worse by 3 more outs to injury this week.  As well, Gazza seems to be playing with a niggle and has dropped off in intensity of late.  Hunt and Rischitelli come back, but still need to make the cut from the 7 man bench.

All this adds up to a win for the Saints….. BUT remember not to get too excited about tipping a lowly team as a CERT – even at home.  But the strong advice for this week is to tip the Saints.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  EVEN

Home Ground: STK + 18 POINTS

Current Form:   SUNS + 5

Team Changes:   EVEN

Psychological:    EVEN

Freshness:    STK + 12

Injuries:     STK + 4

Total:     Saints by 29 points
Accumulator tip:  STK ~ 1.8 (great value!!)

Post Match Review:  Saints were tipped by 29 points and they won by 46.  Analysis was extremely good!!  Just to confirm WHY the Saints were given a +12 for freshness:  the Suns were on the road for R21 (to play Port) AND R22.  This, for a young team, was always going to be a stretch.  As a measure of the tiredness and its effect as the game wore on, the Saints won the first half by 18 points and the second by 28.  In terms of scoring shots, they won the first half by 3 and the 2nd half by 8.

Once again, as per the Pies / Eagles game, the experts simply got it wrong.  Given that SO many tipsters selected the Suns (60% in the AFL tipping comp), locking in the Saints proved to be a great boost.  Both teams lost a player prior to the game, with the Suns faring slightly the worse (Harbrow out vs Lee out for the Saints).





The Tigers to atone

Horror of horrors!! The Tigers lost to arch enemy Carlton last weekend after being 5 goals up at QT.  But all is not lost.  There were reasons for the loss last week – injuries.  Cotchin, Riewoldt and Petterd all suffered injuries.  Grimes was subbed out in 3Q with a sore ankle, while McDonough struggled after coming in for his debut game as a late replacement for White.  There may be some doubt on Riweoldt playing.  Watch for possible late changes.

This has implications for both Carlton and Richmond.  For the Tigers, it is expected that they will rebound quite well.  Also, the Tigers were looking towards a loss when they threw away a big lead against the Lions the previous week.  When this happens – followed by a loss the next week, the team involved excels.  And the generally excel more in 2H than 1H.  However, they are playing the Giants.  And they are 2 games away from their first finals series since 2001.  These two facts may lessen this trend, but it is still expected that the Tigers will do better later in the game.

The Giants are looking towards 2014.  They have their win (the AFL bosses are still giving thanks about this win); they are sending players for operations in preparation for next year.  They may want to find something for their last home game, but nowhere near enough to pluck an unlikely win.

Maths (in points)

Ability: RICH + 48 POINTS

Home Ground: GWS + 15

Current Form:   RICH + 15

Team Changes:  GWS + 6

Psychological:    EVEN

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     RICH + 3

Total:     Tigers by 45 points and CERTS
Accumulator tip:  RICH ~ 1.02

Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 45 points and they won by 121.  Analysis was way off in terms of winning margin.  It was expected that the Giants would find something extra for their last home game, but were totally blown away.  The positive here is that the tips were correct and the Tigers were correctly labelled as certs.  The positive for the Tigers is that Cotchin, Riewoldt, Petterd and Grimes all got through the game (without starring as much as some of their team mates).  All 4 had slight injury concerns from last week.




The Lions to remain undefeated under interim coach

The problem with this game is to work out the Brisbane mindset.  Firstly, there was the non-renewal of Michael Voss.  Next there is the potential overthrow of the board that sacked Voss, with the apparent intent to get Roos as the coach.  The bookies have Roos as odds on to be the next Lions coach.  How this will affect the players this weekend is unclear.

The Dogs are on a bit of a hot streak of form – well, not hot like a top side, but pretty good from their 4 and 12 status a month or so ago.  The trouble is that they run hot and cold within matches.

Then there is the R1 meeting between a Lions team fresh from a NAB Cup GF win vs a struggling Dogs team.  On this day, the Dogs were 6 goals to zip at QT and romped home.  Maybe the Lions will be desperate for revenge.  Many considered Brisbane finals contenders prior to this game.

These issues make this an EXTREME variance game.  In most cases where this occurs, the outsider is tipped in the Accumulator.  However the value is just not there for the Dogs at this stage.

Maths (in points)

Ability: BRIS + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: BRIS + 18

Current Form:   WBD + 1

Team Changes:   EVEN

Psychological:    EVEN (but hard to assess)

Freshness:    BRIS + 6

Injuries:     WBD + 3

Total:     Lions by 26 points
Accumulator tip:  BRIS ~ 1.55 (Dogs at 2.45 is not tempting enough)

Post Match Review:  Lions were tipped by 26 points and they won by 7.  Analysis was jut okay in terms of the margin.  It was excellent in terms of picking the winner outright AND in the Accumulator.  But the best thing was the call of EXTREME variance.  Given that the experts picked a 2 goal win for the Lions and they were almost exactly correct, this doesn’t seem to make sense.  But the fact that the Lions turned a 57 point lead into a 7 point win makes it an EXTREME variance game.  It explains the Dogs all over – their hot and cold patches while they mature as a young playing group.
It also explains why the call of CERTS was correctly not applied to the Lions.






Best cert: Pies, then Crows and Tigers (all won easily)

Best Outsider: This is not a good week for outsiders, but maybe the bombers if they are in the mood, but also could get done by heaps!

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated)
Pies to win by over 38 points (correct)
Cats to win by over 16 points (correct)
Saints to win by over 5 points (correct)
Giants to win or to lose by less than 60 points (incorrect)

For those still alive in the Last Man Standing, the lines are approx

Pies 35.5

Crows 62.5

Hawks 18.5

Cats 13.5

Blues 17.5

Dockers 32.5
Saints 2.5

Tigers 62.5

Lions 11.5

The recommendations is to go for the Pies or Saints (both correct)

Happy tipping!  This is a week where the favourites look the goods, but with some of them not being total certs.  See purple writing at top for a guide to winning your local footy tipping comp.