Round 22

Data to be added 2.00AM Friday 24 Aug 2012 EST

Round 22, 2012

Scores after round 21 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 7 and cumulative: 136 winners (including bonus 2 points) and improved from 12,777 to 11,214 out of 73,198 tipsters. Streak:  tipped 4 of 4 certs correctly. 
The streak is now up to a promising 20.

50/50 tips: incorrect for the round (Dees failed to win by over 6 goals ), so now at 12 out of 21 = 57% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Sportingbet’s free Accumulator comp (This is like the Herald Sun 2011 weighted tipping):  11.70 points for the round and improved from 1,366 to 879 out of 11,857 tipsters.

Early thoughts for R22:  This is a tough round with plenty of chances to pick up a game or 2 on the leaders.  Lock away the Saints, Blues and Cats as certs.  The other 6 games are tougher:

Tigers are tipped, but they are coming back from Perth on a 6 day break

The Roos should carry on their winning way

The Crows will probably bounce back, but it is a danger game as this is their 2nd week on the road

The other three games (Port v Lions; Swans v Hawks and Eagles v Pies) are all toss-ups at this stage




Game                 Tip    By     Variance       Outsider is





Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

Psychological: includes teams about to peak or drop in form, players coming into form after injury, technical analysis observations, whether a team is really UP for the game or, alternatively, horribly flat; and other things not covered by the other categories.

Accumulator: is the same as the old Herald Sun weighted tip.  You pick a winner and the comp (Sportingbet, in this case) gives you the bookies odds for tipping the winner.  EG: in round 10 ESS v MELB, you would have got a score of 1.04 for tipping the Bombers and 12.00 for tipping the Dees.



The Tigers, but not totally convinced

The Bombers have struggled recently.  James Hird said in his post match presser that the team is failing to run out the season this year like last (although lasting longer this year before the downturn).  He is virtually telling us that the Dons are gone.  Those who have struggled in the second half of the season are Crameri, Monfries and Stanton.

Having said that, the will be desperate to “atone” for the embarrassment of the big loss to the Blues in R22.

The expected result is likely to be an honourable loss, rather than a famous victory.

The Tigers cannot play finals, but have one last chance to claim a scalp (they play Port in R23 and no kudos for that likely win).  And a win would put them ahead of Essendon at year’s end, provided that results go as expected in R23.

The trouble is that they are back from Perth on a six day break – this is the Dons’ best hope for a win.

And lose Jake King + Ben Griffiths.

The Bombers lose the expected Fletcher and Carlisle, but Ryder also exits with a knee injury and David Hille (among the best in the VFL last week) does not come in.  So Bellchambers rucks alone.  Gumbleton comes in, but it is unsure how well he will come back from soreness.

The doubts and the team changes make this an EXTREME variance game.

Forecast: Windy, cold, showers

Maths (in points)

Ability: Even

Home Ground: RICH + 6

Current Form:  RICH + 14

Freshness:  ESS + 3

Team Changes:   ESS + 2

Pyschological:   RICH + 11

Injuries:   ESS + 2

Total: Tigers by 24 points

Accumulator tip: RICH ~ 1.62 (just)


Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 24 points and they won by 45.  Analysis was pretty decent overall; but there is still some debate about whether the EXTREME variance call was correct.  The only real downside for Richmond was not coming up off a 6 day break back from Perth.  This was not a problem, although the Tigers did miss a chance to inflict a huge thrashing by kicking 1:8 in 4Q and continually chipping the ball back and forth across the half forward line.  Were they tired and trying to avoid Bomber fast breaks for easy goals??

The down side for the Bombers was too many players underdone or overworked.  Jobe Watson seems to be tiring after a great season and would probably been given a rest, given a healthy list.  Stanton and Zaharakis failed to fire second up from a spell; and both probably need more time now.



The Saints are certs

Gram almost got leather poisoning last week and was instrumental in the Saints 3Q comeback.  He has been relegated to an emergency this week!?!?  Surely Stanley (named this week) will be a late withdrawal to be replaced by Gram.  Still no Jones and Blake!!!!  Well, they are playing at home to GWS.  Maybe they are preparing for a possible miracle in other games and to make the finals!!!

If Jones is fully fit, he may think about going elsewhere.

The Giants look a bit better with Ward, Treloar and Palmer back.

But there is no way the Saints could drop this one.  The loss last week vs Cats was made to look worse by subbing Kozzie off just after half time, then losing Stanley in 3Q.  So they were one rotation short for a quarter and a bit and eventually got overrun late in the game.

In a wet winter, they will appreciate playing the Giants at the dome.

Saints are the certs of the week

Maths (in points)

Ability:  STK + 54 POINTS

Home Ground: STK + 18

Current Form:  STL + 10

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  GWS + 11

Pyschological:   STK + 13

Injuries:   GWS + 1

Total: Saints by 83 points and certs of the week

Accumulator tip: STK ~ 1.01

Post Match Review:  Saints were tipped by 83 points and they won by 128.  Analysis was okay here.  The Giants’ late changes made a huge difference.  Late withdrawals were Cornes and Palmer.  This loss of experience helped to blow out the margin.  A positive for St Kilda was that all their “ins” contributed – now to do it against better opposition.  Saints were correctly labelled the certs of the week, but that’s nothing to brag about.



The Power perhaps

Port are virtually anchored in 14th spot.  They are level on wins and 9% ahead of the Dogs who are unlikely to win again in 2012.  Are they are 3 wins behind the Lions.

But their incentive has been handed to them by stand-in coach Garry Hocking: they will be under scrutiny in the last 2 matches (inference – underperform and you are out next year!).  This may help because most players were getting a game due to the long injury list.

But here is the big news:

Players have been banned from using mobile phones during training. The story came out this week, but it is unclear if the coach’s edict was after the R21 game.  In any case, it should help the players focus.

Port has the advantage of being at home for the 2nd week in a row.

And Boak is a handy inclusion.  Surjan still is not back, however and Hartlett has another week of his suspension to serve.

Last week, Brisbane won the tackle count 56-51. Like the vote when Paul Keating unsuccessfully challenged Bob Hawke.

There is still no Golby for the Lions.  How does one analyse the R21 “come from behind” win over the Crows?  That is the key to picking a winner here.  The assessment is that the Lions were great in their fightback, but the Crows had an off day (in 2,3,4Q, anyway).  And the Crows are only just going as the season comes to an end.

The uncertainties surrounding last week’s win makes this a tough call and an EXTREME variance game.  The temptation was to pick Brisbane to win it and Port in the Accumulator.  But Port did win their last home game last year in similar circumstances against the Dees.

Forecast: Showers, breezy, cool

Maths (in points)

Ability:  BRIS + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: PORT + 18

Current Form:  BRIS + 12

Freshness:   PORT + 6

Team Changes: Even

Pyschological: Even

Injuries:   BRIS + 5

Total: Port by a point

Accumulator tip:  ~ 2.20

Post Match Review:  Port was tipped by a point but the Lions won by 11.  Analysis was reasonably close, but OH the pain of the wrong tip + wrong Accumulator tip.

Given this tip over again, it wouldn’t change. From the Age website:

When Matthew Lobbe felt hamstring tightness late in the third term the Power lost ruck ascendancy and Brisbane lifted.

It is also noted that Paul Stewart was concussed last week and failed to fire this week.  And Port gave away 2 x 50 metre penalties for 2 goals in the match.  Good excuses, but OUCH!!!




The Swans in a toughy

Refer to mobile phones in the above game.  When the Hawks last played the Swans in Sydney, Clarko took their mobile phones off them and they responded with a big upset win.

The Swans are doing better this year and the phone trick would be old hat now.

Franklin is he really back? It matters now

Pyke faces a fitness test but is likely.

Still no Rioli, but the other big guns have been named.  There is some small doubt on Mitchell and, for Lance’s likelihood of returning this weekend, please refer to the play “Waiting for Godot”.  He really needs to play now even if only 70% fit – because the finals loom.  Adjusting to Buddy in the forward line may be a negative for one or two games for the team.  And how well he does after a long absence is another query.  Just enough doubt to pick the Swans.

The only doubt for the Swans was Pyke, but he seems to be 100% according to the Swans website.  Morton gets another go after coming on as sub last week.

The Hawks were less impressive than the Swans last week (getting motoring later when both teams played lowly opposition).  However, they probably had some petrol in reserve for R22 and 23.

The good news is that the victory matters.  The Swans are guaranteed a top 2 spot with a win.   The Hawks would be 90% likely to finish 1 or 2 with a victory, but a loss would probably give them a 3 or 4 finish.

The Swans will enjoy playing a big game at home and Reid will be fitter for one run back.  Also, many Victorians still aren’t convinced about the Swans.

The Hawks are currently the flag favourites, but the Swans are the tip.

Forecast: Sunny, Breezy

Maths (in points)

Ability:  HAW + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: SYD + 15

Current Form:  SYD + 1

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  HAW + 9

Pyschological:   SYD + 2

Injuries:   SYD + 2

Total: Swans by 5 points

Accumulator tip: SYD ~ 2.00

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 5 points but the Hawks won by 7.  Analysis was not too far off but, in a repeat of the above game: OUCH!!!!! 2 wrong tips for one game.  Nothing much in the way of surprises, except for the “mood swings” in the first half.  No more to report here except Hawks for the flag.




Tough game to pick – Eagles

The Pies travel well and the best example of this is a win against the Crows earlier in the year with a depleted Magpie team.

Pendels went to ground with a sore knee at training on Wednesday morning, but appears to be fine now.  Just make sure he is on the plane on Friday!!  Shaw left that training session early and looked sore.  Goldsack is an underrated “in”, especially with Cloke and Dawes out of form.  The Thomas as an emergency is Josh Thomas, not Dale.  Dale is in the starting line-up.

It’s not good for the Pies to have 5 changes (4 enforced and Clarke omitted – although Clarke has also struggled with soreness recently)

Adam Selwood looks to be fine after his concussion last week and Rosa is an important inclusion.  The indication is that he was close last week, so should be cherry ripe this time.

The case for the Eagles is the home ground, winning ruck combination, the tall forward line to stretch the Pie defence and no Maxwell to direct traffic down back.

The case for Collingwood is a superior midfield and an outstanding record on the road.  And the injuries provide an excuse for the loss to the Roos last weekend.

Having two bob each way here with the Eagles as the tip, but the Pies as the Accumulator tip.  The doubts on Collingwood (and a few on the Eagles) makes this an EXTREME variance game.

Forecast: Sunny in the daytime, very light breeze

Maths (in points)

Ability:  COLL + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: WCE + 18

Current Form:  COLL + 3

Freshness: Even

Team Changes:  COLL  + 3

Pyschological:   COLL + 7

Injuries:   WCE + 5

Total: Eagles by 4 points

Accumulator tip: COLL ~ 2.15 (just)

Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by 4 points and they won by 43.  Analysis was just fair (at least the winner was tipped, even in the Accumulator was incorrect).  The weakness in the analysis (with the benefit of hindsight) was that, although the Pies are a great travelling team, they rarely have to travel 3 times in 5 weeks.  In rounds 18 and 20, the trips were 1 hour flights to Sydney.  But the third and longest one may have got the better of them, as suggested by the team dropping off after quarter time.

The correct part of the analysis was the EXTREME variance aspect.  Both teams had question marks on them and if either dropped away a bit, they had the chance of getting smashed.  43 points is not a smashing by general standards, but to Pies fans it was a huge loss.  Goldsack may have needed the run.




The Blues to beat the Suns again!

A talkback caller to radio today mentioned that the last Suns / Blues game was in R2, 2011.  It is probably the longest break between games involving current teams.

This is a game where the Blues need to go flat out regardless of margin.  They need every bit of percentage they can get.  And they won’t know the Freo result as the Freo / Roos game is on the Sunday.

Ellard has earned his place with BOG form recently in the 2s.

The Suns look slightly better with Dixon and McKenzie back; but seeing Brennan out omitted it not good.

The Suns have a home ground advantage, but they have too many injuries to be any realistic chance.

Blues easily, but how easily may depend on how much fight the Suns show.

Forecast: Mostly Sunny (in the daytime), light breeze, low humidity

Maths (in points)

Ability:  CARL + 36 POINTS

Home Ground: SUNS + 15

Current Form:  CARL + 15

Freshness: Even

Team Changes:  SUNS + 4

Pyschological:   SUNS + 3

Injuries:   CARL + 15

Total: Blues by 44 points

Accumulator tip: CARL ~ 1.02

Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 44 points but the Suns won by 12.  Analysis was a long way off and yet another OUCH game.  The Blues were wasteful in front of goal and were extremely slow out of the blocks.  The only excuse that can be found is that teams competing for a finals berth often get up for the BIG matches and then drop off in intensity for the easier ones.

This was known but not mentioned here because the Suns had SO MANY players out injured.

It was clear that Carlton were working on being UP for the Saints match; but that is all academic now.  It is probably twice now this year that they got ahead of themselves.  While the loss made many non-Blues deliriously happy, Carrrrrrrrrlton fan Mr David Blom reckons that it was the year they had to have a la Geelong 2006.

Struggling to find a positive in the analysis, but the experts were tipping the Blues by 11 goals, so the 44 point prediction was closer than most!!




The Cats easily

The Cats have had big, big games ever since R15 against the Suns.

With a game against the Swans to come, this nice little R22 match is a chance for a breather.  Consequently, Joel Selwood (who had his worst SC score for the year last week when he was pestered all night by the Saints) is out with soreness.  And Varcoe gets a run on a limited preparation.  And the Cats may be nicely relaxed after a 9 day break.

The Dogs are turning over young players and aren’t a realistic chance to win.  And they cannot seem to finish off games at present (not surprising with so many experienced players out).  The big mystery is that retirees Gilbee and Hargrave and not in the seniors or VFL this week.  There was no news of them retiring “immediately”!!!

So it’s the Cats to win comfortably, but perhaps by less than the experts think (about 12 goals).  The only doubt is the habit of the Dogs to totally capitulate late in a game.

Forecast: Possible shower, windy, cold

Maths (in points)

Ability:  GEEL + 36 POINTS

Home Ground: GEEL + 6

Current Form:  GEEL + 24

Freshness: Even

Team Changes:   WBD + 1

Pyschological:   WBD + 15

Injuries:   GEEL + 9

Total: Cats by 59 points

Accumulator tip: GEEL ~ 1.01

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 59 points and they won by 34.  Analysis was quite good here.  Again, the experts had a 12 goal blow-out in mind.  There was a temptation to pick them by such a margin, but the (correct) analysis above was that the Cats would be a little way off top form this weekend.  Just how much off top form was slightly underestimated.  Both teams had injury worries on the day, with the Cats faring slightly worse.  They also pulled out Scarlett and Taylor Hunt prior to the game.  But no harm done (a rarity this weekend) and maybe people who need to tip margins were talked out of something huge!!




The Roos shouldn’t lose

The talk this week has been the 2 team’s styles:  North’s free flow versus the Dockers’ stifling method.   This is the sort of game Freo has won this year.  EG Saints and Tigers in Melbourne.

But the Roos are going better currently than both St Kilda and Richmond.

North’s selection was easy with not bothering to name Wells, who was marked as a test.

Meanwhile, the Dockers have doubts on Pavlich and Mzungu with injuries.  Mzungu, Griffin and Pav all missed training on Wednesday. Mzungu and Pav have been named, while Griffin is still out and Clarke comes into the 25 man squad.

Pavlich leads the goal kicking currently and is almost certain to play.

Silvagni was tipped to come in, but not named.

Crowley hobbled off from training with an ankle injury, before being cleared to play.

The risk on the Roos is that the Dockers might be able to make this an inside game.  It is slight, but just enough to avoid calling the Roos certs.  If you want to be adventurous, you can go for them as certs.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  Even

Home Ground: NMFC + 24

Current Form:  NMFC + 4

Freshness: Even

Team Changes:   NMFC + 1

Pyschological:   FREO + 2

Injuries:   FREO + 1

Total: Roos by 26 points

Accumulator tip: NMFC ~ 1.42

Post Match Review:  Roos were tipped by 26 points but the Dockers won by 53.  Analysis was SOOOOOOOO far off.  The Roos were almost tipped as certs, but the Dockers did a job on them.  It is their third win in Victoria against a potential final 8 team (having beaten the Saints and Tigers previously, but they were much closer games).  The North talls were dreadful, with Goldstein and Petrie both having their worst days for the year.

And maybe the win against the Pies took them to an Icarus-like state.  The Pies were badly wounded last weekend and perhaps the Roos’ win wasn’t as good as it looked.  And maybe they were due for a letdown after finally beating the Pies, following several recent thrashings.  As a comparison, the Tigers finally beat the Saints this year in R10 following 13 consecutive losses and a draw.  The next week, the Tigers underperformed and lost to Freo (again the “recipient”).  Given all this, Freo should have at least been the Accumulator tip.




The Crows without much confidence

The Dees still do not get back Jamar (still injured) and Moloney (in 2s).  Martin didn’t make it back, so Spencer rucks alone.

Brad Green plays his last game in R22 and will not play R23 in Perth (as indicated earlier in the week).  Dean Bailey has gone from Dees to Crows and Neil Craig vice-versa.  Who will have the best insight into the opposition??

The red stuff plagiarised from a website somewhere:

Forward Ian Callinan described the club’s 10-point loss to the Lions as a “wakeup call”.

Sanderson admitted a response was needed against Melbourne, but he remained confident that the Crows would threaten in September.

Percentage doesn’t really matter to Crows (unless the Eagles win both), so they really just need the four points and no need to grind the Dees into the turf if they get a good lead – they may prefer late in the game to rest players and chip the ball around.  Unless they really want to “prove themselves” and come out like ravenous wolves.  The big win after throwing away a lead is a technical analysis lead which tends to suggest the Crows may come out and really smash the Dees.

But the lack of need for percentage and others factors (EG the Crows are on the road for the 2nd week in a row – which can often sap a team’s energy late in the game – but they DO get an 8 day break) cast some doubt on the strength of the technical lead.

The fact that the team was up for the pre-season grand final and also up in the first half of the year does give a lead to the Crows petering out as the season unfolds.

The Crows’ form has really tapered off late in the year:

R17 Easily beat the Eagles at home and their last really good effort.  But the Eagles were missing Shuey.

R18 Lost to Geelong, despite the Cats being a man down at half time

R19 Just fell over the line at home vs Essendon

R20 Beat Freo well at home, but the Dockers were missing Fyfe & McPharlin.

R21 Lost to the Lions after leading big

Last time the Crows played the Dees, it was a 96 point victory to Melbourne.  Any victory this time would delight the local supporters.  But the experts are far too keen on Adelaide as 6 goal plus favourites.

The divergent leads given by the technical analyses above cause this to be an EXTREME variance game.

Forecast: Showers, breezy

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ADEL + 30 POINTS

Home Ground: MELB + 15

Current Form:  ADEL + 7

Freshness:   MELB + 9

Team Changes:  Even

Pyschological:   ADEL + 6

Injuries: Even

Total: Crows by 19 points

Accumulator tip: MELB ~ 6.75

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 19 points and they won by 69.  Analysis was patchy, but plenty was gleaned.  There were 2 competing technical leads.  They were wrongly “weighted”.

The one about the Crows petering out at the end of a match against lower opposition after a string of wins was the main technical lead and this should have been taken more notice of – meaning that the Crows were likely to outperform expectations and should have been called certs.

The second technical lead was about the Crows being on the road for the second week in a row and that they were likely to fall away late in the game.  In fact, they narrowly lost 4Q after winning the other quarters by 11, 20 and 43.

So both technical leads were correct, but the first was the strongest.  For Dee fans, the second lead didn’t help much.  The horse had bolted!



Best cert:  Saints (won easily), Cats (won well enough), Blues (forget the plight of Brett Ratten, what about the 21 game streak of certs!!!!!)

Best Outsider Port (gallant in defeat), Swans (gallant in defeat), Pies (fell away badly), Dees are a rough hope (gone at half time)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  Tough choice here between Dees (to win or get done by less than 6 goals) or Tigers…… lets get it over and done early and go for the Tigers to overcome the trip back from Perth and win over the Dons by more than 2 goals (at last a correct call!!! Never in doubt)

Happy tipping!  This is the round to catch up on the leaders.  If you are close, go for the favourites in all games, but try to pick the winner of the Port / Bris, Syd / Haw and WCE / Coll games.  The slight outsiders Port, Sydney and Pies are all huge chances in these games.