Round 23, 2014 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R23, 2014

By Penny Dredfell

Added 25 Aug 2014

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week (R22): the “most likely outsiders to win” was the topic last week.  What didn’t help was that this was one rare occasion that all 9 favourites saluted.  So there was not much in it for tipsters – except to steer them away from Carlton.

Now for round 23: Richmond is the one team with its final 8 prospects in its own hands

But they have to beat the Swans to make it.  The Tigers are on an 8 game winning streak – with their last loss to the Swans in Melbourne.  When teams get on such long winning runs, they often show signs of mental fatigue.

Last weekend, the Cats ended a 7 match winning streak by losing to the Hawks.  And, despite having a longer break (8 days vs 6), the Cats ran out of puff late in the game.  This after struggling late against the Dockers and Blues in the weeks prior.

This is symptomatic of a team about to lose. On this basis, the Tigers are virtually no hope to win against the Swans.  Last weekend, the Saints came from 44 points down to lose by 26 to the Tigers (won 4Q by 18 points).

The technical analysis points not only to the Tigers NOT being able to win, but that they are also likely to under-perform.  The Richmond drop-off could be dramatic late in the game once it “feels” lost.  Expect the Swans to win by more than 5 goals.

For outsiders, Port and the Suns are better options.

A quick word on the FNS (Friday Night Shocker):  the Blues had the shocker to beat all shockers last weekend.  They lost by about 80 points more than expected.  Teams in this situation would normally be expected to bounce back strongly the following week.

But, in the Blues case, they may be too injured to respond with enough energy to be a winning chance.  It is therefore postulated that the FNS effect be discounted this week – with the Bombers likely to be able to win without too much of a scare.