Round 3, 2013


Round 3, 2013

Scores after round 2 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 7 (reasonable) and a slight improvement to 46,946 out of 63,934 tipsters

Accumulator: 8.11 (just average) and ranking slipped to 3,949 out of 11,731 tipsters

Last Man Standing Comp: Alive (Swans won again). Streak:  tipped 2 of 3 certs correctly, with the Lions losing (so streak was wiped out and back to 1 once Port won)

50/50 tips: incorrect for the round (the Lions lost to the Crows), so now at 2 out of 3 = 67% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Early thoughts for R3: this is a VERY TOUGH ROUND, which is illustrated by the fact that the hottest favourite (Eagles) are in very poor form.  While they should win, there is no huge confidence in labelling them certs.  Of the other strongly fancied teams, the Tigers are vulnerable and the Saints should probably beat the Giants.  Port is a huge chance in the Showdown MCMLXVIII (lost count), while the Lions are favoured in the Q Clash.  The tipping ladder may change dramatically after this week!

This week’s special guest tipster is LAURIE ANDERSON.  His tips are listed here because he is currently sitting on 16 wins in the Herald Sun tipping comp and is 644th out of 63,934 tipsters.  Super effort, Laurie!!  His tips this week are:


He is a Tigers fan and would be happy to finish 9th in the tipping at year’s end!!

Back to the normal tipping now

Apologies for lack of table format

Round 3, 2013

Games                  Tip / By    Variance       Outsider is:        
1 FREO VS ESS       FREO 25       EXTREME   a small chance
2 NMFC V SYD       SYD 8             HIGH             a definite chance
3 MELB V WCE      WCE 29         EXTREME   a small chance
4 GWS V STK          STK 19          HIGH             a small chance
5 GEEL V CARL     GEEL 16       HIGH             a small chance
6 SUNS v BRIS        BRIS 31         HIGH             a tiny chance
7 RICH V WBD       RICH 20        HIGH             a small chance
8 COLL V HAW      HAW 13        HIGH             a definite chance
9 PORT V ADEL     PORT 7         EXTREME   tipped to win

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions


Dockers without total confidence

The Bombers will be listed as EXTREME VARIANCE in every game they play until things settle down a bit as far as bizarre news stories and amazing score lines.  So far, all the news has been good. 

Maybe their form is similar to that of the devil in the book of Revelation who knew his time was short.  Perhaps the Dons are making hay while the suns shines and, a la 2012, might eventually come crashing down.  Then again, with a healthy list this year (so far), they may take it to the next level.

The fundamental analysis tends to suggest a Dockers win, but they will not be tipped as certs while the Dons are flying as they are.

Maths (in points)

Ability: FREO + 12 points

Home Ground: FREO + 21

Current Form: ESS + 3

Team Changes: FRE0 + 1

Psychological: ESS + 3

Freshness: EVEN

Injuries: ESS + 3

Total: Dockers by 25 points
Accumulator tip: FREO ~ 1.48

Post Match Review:  Dockers were tipped by 25 points but the Dons won by 4.  Analysis was just fair.  Maybe the drama of late in the week had a bonding effect on the Dons.  And also the overachieving teams in the early season tend to hold their form for at least a few weeks and this should have, at least, made Essendon the Accumulator tip.

Swans just

Note that this game is at Blundstone Arena in Hobart.

The Roos’ first three games this year are vs the last 3 premiers.  Life will get easier soon, but they are now getting desperate for a win.

There are 2 big questions which will probably decide this game:
1.  How can the Roos rebound from last week’s shattering loss?  Interestingly, a similar score line occurred last year in Hobart when they played the Eagles.  They led the Eagles by about 6 goals and eventually lost by 2 points.  The following week the Kangas totally demolished the Blues on a Friday night.  This lead tends to suggest that the Roos should win well against the Swans this weekend.  But the loss to the Eagles was assisted by Goldstein copping a knock mid game.

The Roos were in the middle of their purple patch when they rebounded to beat Carlton in 2012.  They are not going so well now, although the loss to the Cats was better than their R1 loss to an injury depleted Pies outfit.  The answer to this question is: unclear – maybe a slight negative

2. Will the easy games in R1 & 2 count against the Swans?  This theory has been postulated by many.  The belief of this website is that the Swans have been planning to peak in R3-5 (Roos, Cats at home & Saints away).  There is a slight chance that they will not peak until R4, but they should be close to their peak this weekend.  And they have been able to set themselves for R3; no such luxury for the Roos who faced the Pies and Cats so far.  The answer here is – a slight plus for the Swans.

Maths (in points)

Ability: SYD + 12 points

Home Ground: NMFC + 6

Current Form: EVEN

Team Changes: NMFC + 4

Psychological: SYD + 6

Freshness: SYD + 3

Injuries: NMFC + 3

Total: SYD by 8 points
Accumulator tip: SYD ~ 1.67 (narrowly in front of NMFC ~ 2.20)

Post Match Review:  The Swans were tipped by 8 points and they won by 39.  Analysis was reasonable and no harm done as the winner + accumulator was tipped.  But the letdown factor (point 1 above) was probably underrated.  Also, the late withdrawal of Liam Anthony did not help.


Eagles, but not convinced that they are the biggest certs of all time.

Given the events of the week and the form of both teams, this is an EXTREME variance game.  The most likely result (the median of this EXTREME range) would be a much smaller Melbourne loss.  As an example, in 2008, the Dees (14th in 2007) lost the opening round by 104 points to highly fancied Hawks; next round it was a disastrous 95 point loss to the top 8 team Collingwood.  By round 3, they improved enough to get within 30 points of Geelong (reigning premiers) down at the Cattery.  The pressure on both teams coupled with, an heightened by, the media scrutiny leads to difficulty in predicting with confidence.  As such, this will be one of the few websites to NOT call the Eagles the certs of the round.

The Dees had a team meeting on Monday night – often the forerunner to an improved performance.  The (seemingly clumsily arranged) departure of CEO Cameron Schwab may be a positive for on-field performance, but this is uncertain.  He almost went a couple of years ago – was apparently sacked then reinstated a few days later.

One thing is sure – that the Dees are performing well below their potential.  However, they still seem to have some confusion about who their best 22 is; what has happened to Magner?  And maybe Strauss?  And was Watts injured last week when subbed off?  If so, has he been dropped or is he still slightly unwell?  The revolving door at the selection table is a negative

The Eagles would have been certs, but their injury toll is high and there must be some doubts that Kerr and Le Cras can perform to a high level first up (although Kerr did well last week in the WAFL).  And we still await Nicnat, Rosa, MacKenzie, Nicoski and Wellingham!

The intensity of the Dees early on will give a good indication as to how the game may pan out.

Maths (in points)

Ability: WCE + 30 points

Home Ground: MELB + 21

Current Form: WCE + 13

Team Changes: WCE + 13

Psychological: MELB + 1

Freshness: EVEN

Injuries: MELB + 5

Total: Eagles by 29 points
Accumulator tip: MELB ~ 12.00 (would need something to go wrong with the Eagles, but the big number makes it worth the risk)

Post Match Review:  The Eagles were tipped by 29 points and they won by 94.  Analysis was not that great here and all those who had the Eagles as the biggest certs of all time were proven correct.  The expected Dees “fightback” after the events of the week lasted for only a half.  And the “Yuri An” drop-off by the Dees was dramatic; so they will now been downgraded.

As mentioned above, the Dees really needed inclusions Kerr, Le Cras or both to underperform in order to have a realistic chance.   They both did well, with Kerr subbed out after doing well.  Frawley’s SC score of 23 was probably his lowest for years.  The brave (or silly) Accumulator tip looked like it was a chance until early in 3Q.



Saints out of necessity

From R3 onwards, winless teams begin to get desperate.  This will help the Saints (with some chance of playing finals) more than the Giants (with some chance of finishing 16th or17th) right now.  The Saints were better last week vs Tigers (and maybe the Tigers are better than the general public thinks), while the Giants were blown away late by Port.

The big (and soon to get bigger) problem for the Giants is that they are on the road for the 2nd week in a row (because their “home” game is in Canberra).  This fact greatly reduces the Giants chances of winning.

A win to the Saints here would put them back in the hunt and give them a confidence boost with home games against the Dons and Swans in R4 & 5.

Maths (in points)

Ability: STK + 18 points

Home Ground: GWS + 6

Current Form: STK + 1

Team Changes: GWS + 2

Psychological: STK + 12

Freshness: STK + 9

Injuries: GWS + 1

Total: Saints by 31 points and CERTS
Accumulator tip: STK ~ 1.22

Post Match Review:  The Saints were tipped by 31 points and they won by 72.  Analysis was okay.  Both tips correct.  Maybe the ability of the Saints to totally blitz a lowly opponent was underestimated.  Also, the young Giants “2nd week on the road” factor may have been bigger than was assessed pre-game.


Cats without huge confidence

Last week’s Blues / Pies game was a BIG GAME for Carlton and Mick.  After being overrun late, there may be some query on how the Blues will front up this week.  Perhaps they may be angry and overachieve – or flat and do poorly.

The Cats should be feeling confident about their comeback wins this year, but pondering why they have started so slowly. 

Question without notice: how do you assess a 4 point win after being down by 41 points?  A: assess it as a 4 point win; that is, the end result is the most important.  In the long run, assessing games by the end margin will make more sense.  There are some technical issues to consider at times regarding game trends.  These will be pointed out as they occur.

A negative for Geelong is that this is their 2nd 6 day break in a row.  A positive is the omission of Brown, who was ordinary last week and is not the sort of player needed vs the Carlton forwards.

Both teams are a tad unsettled – Geelong with a few injuries here and there, while the Blues have made 4 changes while they try to nail down their best 22.  The return of Heath Scotland from injury should help

Maths (in points)

Ability: GEEL + 12 points

Home Ground: GEEL + 6

Current Form: GEEL + 8

Team Changes: CARL + 3

Psychological: GEEL + 1

Freshness: CARL + 6

Injuries: CARL + 2

Total: GEEL by 16 points
Accumulator tip: GEEL ~ 1.55

Post Match Review:  The Cats were tipped by 16 points and they won by 72.  Analysis was exactly right and both tips correct, although the scoring fluctuations were marked during the game.

In the final analysis, the Cats were too good (as expected), but the Blues were able to fight back late – probably due to the 2 x 6 day breaks for the Cats.  

Then there was the question of the early exits of Kreuzer and Varcoe.  Maybe this hurt Carlton more.  The Blues’ “ins” did well and “made up” for the early exit of Kreuzer.


Lions to get on the board

The Lions really hurt us last week when they virtually threw the game away (but credit to the Crows to be good enough to grab their chances).

This time, they should atone.  They get to play in QLD for the 2nd week in a row.

Their form trend reads: horrible, barely acceptable.  There is some chance that they could return to horrible again after last week’s “acceptable loss” (the Dees’ form has taken the pressure right off Brisbane), but it is more likely that they will outperform expectations this week – especially against a relatively lowly ranked opponent.

Mayes is really highly rated by Jonathan Brown, but was delayed by a groin complaint.  After a couple of games in the NEAFL and a BOG last week, he is straight in.  Karnezis is a surprise omission, along with Lester.  The non-return of Maguire is a negative, but they may be able to get away with this against the Suns.

The Suns were reasonable against the Swans, but the Swans are still not in top gear.  Gazza, after collecting 3 votes in R1, was blanketed by Jack last week.  He will be expecting Raines to be hot on his tail this weekend. The return of Broughton has been offset by injuries to Murphy and Prestia.

With the Suns being behind the Lions in development and having more injuries, the Lions should be almost certs.

Maths (in points)

Ability: BRIS + 12 points

Home Ground: SUNS + 3

Current Form: SUNS + 3

Team Changes: BRIS + 3

Psychological: BRIS + 13

Freshness: BRIS + 6

Injuries: BRIS + 2

Total: Lions by 31 points
Accumulator tip: BRIS ~ 1.44

Post Match Review:  The Lions were tipped by 31 points and they won by 2.  Analysis was not good here and the game could have gone either way.  But sometimes, one’s analysis is not flash, but God has mercy on you and it doesn’t cost you big time.  This is the case here.

The return to form of Brown probably got the Lions over the line.  They appear to be a bit unsettled as was evidenced by the omissions of Karnezis and Lester.   This close win may be the turnaround for the Blues.


Tigers, but not certs

Richmond is following a pattern from 2012.  Back then, they had a big win against the Hawks in R9.  Just when the doubters were circling, they backed it up with a fighting win in R10 on a Friday night vs the Saints (and they hadn’t beaten them since the Boer War).  Then, in R11, everyone was finally convinced about Richmond and picked them confidently to down the Dockers at the MCG (they were 5 goal favourites).  But they went down to Freo by12 points.

This weekend, they are similarly favoured to beat the Dogs.  The Dogs are talking up the 200th game of Cross (who said he was happy to play 1 game of AFL footy) as a motivational tool.  This ploy may also alert the Tigers to be alert!

The Tigers should be rated as more mature this year and less likely to underperform this week.  Hopefully for them, they learned their lesson in 2012 and won’t have relaxed too much over their long weekend just gone.

Watch out for Knights (on the 7 man IC bench) who starred for the 2s last week.

As for the Dogs, their form pattern could be tracking either way:

A. A great effort, an ordinary one, then a top effort (this would follow a technical chart pattern, but their loss last week was not large enough)

B.  A great effort, an acceptable loss, followed by a bad loss

With the “ability” of both teams to underperform, this is a game to avoid.

Maths (in points)

Ability: RICH + 12 points

Home Ground: EVEN

Current Form: RICH + 1

Team Changes: RICH + 1

Psychological: RICH + 4

Freshness: EVEN

Injuries: RICH + 2

Total: Tigers by 20 points
Accumulator tip: WBD ~ 3.85

Post Match Review:  The Tigers were tipped by 20 points and they won by 67.  Analysis was just fair here and the Accumulator tip of the Dogs never gave a yelp.

Although the Dogs weren’t helped by losing Wood early and then Dickson later, they were poor today.  Refer above and option B occurred.  This option should probably have been given more weight in the analysis.


The Hawks just

The Pies this week face what the Blues did last week – a good chance diminished by injuries.

The Pies had a big match against the Blues last weekend, but now lose Jolly and Maxwell.  The captain isn’t a huge possession winner, but is vital in terms of his ability to organise the troops.  He will be missed, and the Pies are on the verge of losing a grip on their flag chances due to injuries.

News coming out of the Clarkson press conference AFTER the Eagles match was needed BEFORE the game – that was that the Hawks’ Hill was subbed out in R1 due to injury.  That news, along with Shiels early knock, made the Hawks loss to the Cats look a bit better.

Still no Lake for the Hawks (who was recruited to play on the likes of Cloke), but the 2012 Hawthorn back line is doing better.  Dale Thomas returns for the Pies, but may be slightly underdone.

The fact that the Hawks return from Perth is a slight positive for Collingwood.

This may be a GF preview!

Maths (in points)

Ability: HAW + 6 points

Home Ground: EVEN

Current Form: HAW + 6

Team Changes: HAW + 1

Psychological: HAW + 2

Freshness: COLL + 6

Injuries: HAW + 4

Total: Hawks by 13 points
Accumulator tip: HAW ~ 1.63

Post Match Review:  The Hawks were tipped by 13 points and they won by 55.  Analysis was just slightly better than most of the experts.

Perhaps the Pies had a big letdown after the Blues’ game.  There was also a small danger in the Hawks being flat after returning from the west on a 6 day break, but they were terrific.

Dale Thomas was well below his best.  And the bottom end of the Pies’ talent pool in this game was worse than the lower end of the Hawks’ team.

And Luke Hodge was better than expected in his second game back off a 6 day break.



Port in an upset

It is difficult to asses both teams and this is an EXTREME VARIANCE game.

Firstly the Crows.  They were overrun by the Dons in R1, then it looked like happening again in Brisbane, but they suddenly found something.  Was their win a genuine return to its best 2012 form? Or (as is suspected) a momentary blip?

Port has a new coach and heaps of “new” players – Monfries, Neade, O’Shea, Pittard, Stevenson, Wines, Heath and Mitchell.  That is 8 players who are really new or hardly played at all last year.  Amazingly, they have gelled together well so far (credit must go to Hinkley and his coaching team for this), but the opposition has been poor.  The question here is: when will the bubble burst?  And will it make a mess when it does.

Adding to the intrigue is the ability of Port to get up as underdogs in the Showdowns.  And they got to play in Adelaide the previous week, while the Crows had to travel north.

These teams were rated equal at the beginning of the season.  The following should almost NEVER be done, because it gives ridiculous results, but taking a line through Essendon:

The Dons beat the Dees by 148 points and Port by 79.

That puts the Dons 69 points up on Port.

But then, removing the home ground advantage, it is only 51 points.

The Dons beat the Crows by 35 points, or 53 points if you remove the home ground factor.  The end result is the Port is 2 points better than Adelaide.

So, not much in it but, going out on a limb, it’s Port

Maths (in points)

Ability: EVEN

Home Ground: EVEN

Current Form: PORT + 5

Team Changes: PORT + 1

Psychological: EVEN

Freshness: PORT + 3

Injuries: ADEL + 2

Total: Port by 7 points
Accumulator tip: PORT ~ 2.75

Post Match Review:  Port was tipped by 7 points and they won by 9.  Analysis was wonderful – it is every time an outsider is selected and they salute.  In this case, it was a 15 point outsider.

Getting to within 2 points was more luck than good management, however – due to the huge fluctuations in the game.

Anyway, the Crows were too highly favoured and Port underrated.  It appears that Port is running out games well (coming from 31 points down) and their “new boys” continue to stand up.  There were doubts about Port after playing the Dees and the Giants, but they will now be getting some kudos.

The other factor which disadvantaged the Crows was the knock to Dangerfield from Wines.  As well as the boost it gave to Port, Dangerfield also had to spend a bit of time off the field to get running repairs.


Best cert: The Saints and leave it at that – not a good week to pick certs! (never in doubt)

Best Outsider:  Port clearly (got there in the end), then maybe Roos and Pies with a few teams having rough chances (neither team looked likely in the second half)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Let’s be extravagant:
Dees to win or get within 58 points of the Eagles (Dees were dreadful late)
Brisbane to beat the Suns by more than 19 points (wrong tip – see review of Lions’ game)
Port to win or lose by less than 13 points (never in doubt in 4Q)

Happy tipping!  This is a very difficult week and expect some upsets (there were 2 – Dons and Port)