Round 3

Data to be added Thursday 12 April 2012 


Scores after round 2 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp 
Tips correct: 8 (6,217 out of 69,232 for the week) and cumulative:
14 winners and improved to 16,977
out of 67,232 tipsters Streak:  tipped 3 of 3 certs correctly (current streak = 5)

50/50 tips: correct for the round (Eagles won easily to cover the line), so now at 2 out of 2 = 100% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)


Last Man Standing result: alive (Eagles did it easily!)

Early thought for round 3: The proper write-up AFTER teams announced may be late this week (or not done at all).

So here is the interim data.  This will be superseded by the REAL write-up when and if it happens.

Carlton by 7 points; variance extreme and Pies a big chance
by 36 points over Dees and certs
(an outsider) by 3 points over the Swans.  Swans a big chance and would be my tip if Mumford plays
by 24 points over Lions, but not certs.  Variance extreme and Mark Harvey will have some inside info on Dockers players.
by 30 points over the Suns.  Not quite certs.  The Suns should get back some experienced players this week, including Bock.
by 18 points, but not certs.  Dogs some hope.
by 59 points and certs.  Will win, but may rest some players.
by 39 points over the Crows.  Trying to work out whether or not to label them as certs.  Crows looked last week like they had been up for a long time.
Cats by 8 points over Roos.  The Cats can underperform the week after a Hawks game.  Roos very underrated, but they also need to clear the hurdle of getting a big scalp.

Best cert:  Eagles then Tigers  


Best Outsider:  Port clearly; then Roos, Pies; very rough chances to Lions and Suns 


Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  Suns to win or get within 55 points of Essendon 



  Game                         Tip    By  Variance                Outsider is




Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions



Blues are sharper at present 


Things are falling nicely for the Blues and they get back Jamison &

Duigan after 2 games in the VFL each.  The Pies also regain Maxwell and Wellingham, but both may possibly need the run.  The tip here is for the Blues because they have had fewer pre-season interruptions than Collingwood.  But, because this is like a high stakes poker game, the variance is extreme and one shouldn’t feel too confident in picking a winner.

Blues by 7


Maths (in points)

Ability:  COLL + 12 points

Home Ground: Even   

Current Form: CARL + 7

Psychological: Even

Freshness:  CARL + 9 points

Injuries:  CARL + 3 points

Total:  Blues by 7 points

Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 7 points and they won by 60.  Analysis was reasonable.  The positives were that the variance was marked as extreme – meaning that whoever got on top might romp away.  As it turned out, the Pies lost 2 players early and the lack of rotations coupled with the shorter rest gave the Blues a huge advantage.

The negative was that the Pies’ lack of match conditioning was probably underestimated and the Blues should have been tipped by more.



Tigers will win

Sooner or later, the Dees will come good – at least enough to outperform expectations – even if not to win.  But this will not be the week. 

They look better (on paper) with Martin, Morton, Davey & Tapscott in the team.  Tapscott is a tad underdone.

The Tigers have been competitive against top four competitors in rounds 1 & 2.  With a much shorter injury list, they should win well.  The Dees will look better when both Moloney and Sylvia are fit and firing together.

Tigers by 38 points and certs.  They may very well win BIGGG


Maths (in points)

Ability:  RICH + 18

Home Ground: Even   

Current Form: RICH + 14

Freshness:  RICH + 6

Team Changes:  MELB + 4

Pyschological:  MELB + 2

Injuries:  RICH + 6

Total:  Tigers by 38 points


Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 38 points and they won by 59.  Analysis was pretty good in this instance.  Richmond correctly tipped as certs and there was a hint that they may win big (which they did)




Toughest game of the round – maybe Port

This tip is made on the assumption that Mumford may not be quite right.  If he is 100% fit, then the tip would probably be the Swans narrowly.  But he had to both train well Thursday AND pull up okay Friday before making the flight to Adelaide.
Port is still underrated and now get back Gray.   The problem is: how much have Port improved?  To a 12 – 15 team?   An 8 – 11 team?  We will soon know.

The Swans have Hannebery, O’Keefe and Shaw gradually running into form.  Losing LRT and Smith is a bit of a blow.


Maths (in points)

Ability:  SYD + 12

Home Ground: PORT + 18  

Current Form: PORT + 1

Psychological: SYD + 6

Freshness:  SYD + 3

Team Changes:  PORT + 6 (assumes doubt on Mumford)

Injuries:  Even

Total:  Port by 4 points


Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 7 points and they won by 60.  Ouch!!!  Mumford played and did very well.  Had I been confident of that, the Swans would have been (and now I see should have been tipped).  The other thing that was slightly underestimated was the psych.  This includes players running into form after injuries or layoffs.  The Swans players I had in this category were Hannebery (21 SC points in R2 and red vested up to 87 SC points in R3),  O;Keefe (54 SC points in R2 up to 121 SC points in R3) and  Parker (54 SC points in R2 up to 108 SC points in R3).



More Detailed Data to come


4 FREO V BRIS     

Freo should win, but not 100% confident


Mark Harvey returns to Perth this weekend as an assistant coach.  Apart from the emotion of it, Harvey will have given the Lions some valuable inside info. 

The Lions looked terrible last week, but were playing on a 5 day break.  They have now had a good rest and get back Brown and Drummond. 

Freo are still a bit hard to line up.  They looked terrific against the Cats, although they almost threw away a 5 goal to zip start.  Then they gave away a big start to the Swans in Sydney and almost ran them down.  The Swans had the mini-bye after their round 1 clash, so it is hard to know how switched on the Swans were. 

I tend to think Freo are slightly overrated for now


Maths (in points)

Ability:  FREO + 6

Home Ground: FREO + 24  

Current Form: FREO + 10

Psychological: BRIS + 1

Freshness:  BRIS + 6

Team Changes:  BRIS + 9

Injuries:  Even

Total:  Freo by 24 points


Post Match Review:  Freo was tipped by 24 points and they won by 29.  Analysis was almost perfect for this game.  Both teams copped a significant early injury.  It was unlikely that the Dockers were going to win big as most of the experts predicted.  And the Lions having the extra time to mull over the Easter Thursday loss provided extra incentive for them.


5 GCS V ESS           

Dons almost certs, but a small risk

You should never be overly keen on a side which has 5 enforced changes.  And this on top of 2 forced changes the week before.  This is Essendon’s lot in life (although Hocking does return this week).

Meanwhile, Bock returns from exile for the Suns.  And Fraser adds some experience as well.    Expect the Suns to be competitive, but probably without getting close to a win.  They will use this match to prime themselves for the R5 Lions’ contest.

On that note, it will be difficult for the Dons not to be thinking ahead to R4 & 5 games vs Blues and Pies

Dons by 30 points, but not certs.


Post Match Review:  Dons were tipped by 30 points and they won by 17.  Analysis was perfect.  And even though they won, they were correctly named as “not certs”.  Anyone who labelled them so got plenty of anxious moments watching the game.  Again, the experts underestimated the effect of 5 forced changes to the Bombers, combined with the return of Bock and Fraser.  Also, humidity was very high.  This seemed to help get the Suns back into the game (to an extent), although they ran out of puff in the end due to lack of body strength.  Congrats to Dustin Fletcher for playing his 350th.



Don’t like the game, but Saints

The form of these two teams is difficult to line up.  The Saints were shock losers in R1 and then thrashed a depleted Suns team.  

The Dogs were smashed late by the Eagles and then very competitive against the Crows in Adelaide.  It is possible that the Crows are entering a flat spot after being “up” for a fair while.  As such, the Dogs form may not have been as good as it looked.  And Hargrave may face a fitness test.

With both teams having new coaches and much uncertainty about their 2012 credentials, this is a game to avoid if you can. 

The Saints have fewer injuries and are slightly higher rated.  They will be the tip, but we will learn a lot about these teams by watching them on Sunday.  Saints by 18 points.


Post Match Review:  Saints were tipped by 18 points and they won by 63.  Analysis was a long way off here, but a few small positives can be found:

1.  The experts tipped them by only 12 points

2.  I said this was a game to avoid if possible, because the form lines were so hard to line up

3.  At least the winner was tipped

It now appears that the Crows were on a big downer last week and therefore made the Dogs’ form look better than it was.  The Dogs are really struggling now and face the totally struggling Dees next week!





Eagles are certs

But before you go tipping them by 200 points, they do have 4 players out injured (3 of whom might have played against a higher rated opponent) – Embley (gone for a long time), Glass, Priddis & Rosa.  And, although their replacements will be going flat out to earn a spot, the Eagles’ intensity may not be 100%.

The Giants get back Brogan, while the highly rated Treloar makes his debut after recovering from a hammie.

I cannot see the Eagles losing it, but I also think that they are using this match as a lead-in to their R4 home game vs Hawks.

Call me silly, but Eagles by 55 points.

Post Match Review:  WCE were tipped by 55 points and they won by 81.  Many of the experts were picking a margin of over 100 points.  Well, maybe 55 points was a bit silly.  I’ll almost call it a draw with the optimists.  The Eagles have really slowed down in some of these games.   Maybe I need to revise the rating down some more for the Giants.  No much harm done here and the Eagles were correctly labelled as the certs of the week.





Hawks almost certs

The media (and some Hawk fans) had the script already written:  beat the grand finalists in weeks 1 & 2 and they will have one hand on the 2012 cup.

In reality, its round 3 and the top 3 teams from last year are all 1 and 1 with another 11 wins needed just to make the finals.

The Hawks are still trying to work out how they lost on Monday.  So long as they are not mentally scarred or too sore, they should account for an improved Crows line-up.  Maybe they will be angrier than their coach was last prelim final day – and come out to play inspired footy.

The Hawks are higher rated and have a home ground advantage.

Hawks by 35 points and almost certs


Post Match Review:  WCE were tipped by 35 points and they won by 56.  I am reasonably happy with the analysis here.  Maybe could’ve tipped the Hawks as certs.  The idea that the Crows were on a downer seems to be correct; and the Hawks seemed to be on top of their game.



9.  NMFC v GEEL 

Roos are some chance, but Cats are the tip

The Roos have their best chance to catch a top 4 team (from last year) off guard this weekend.  The Cats had a tough match on Monday while the Roos enjoyed a huge win over the Giants in Hobart.

They get back Ziebell from suspension.  He may either play as sub – or he may be out of petrol towards the end of the game.

This is written late Friday (too late for many) and it has been announced that Stokes and Smedts are out injured and Mitch Brown dropped.

In come Stephenson, Horlin-Smith and Gillies (the new Scarlett, apparently).   Orren missed R2 with a virus, so we may even forgive him his R1 ordinary game. 

A few times recently, the Roos have gone in confident of beating a top team and been beaten by 10 goals plus.  I reckon the Cats, off a 6 day break, will be going flat out early to establish a big lead.  So early will be critical in this game.  And so will the twin towers, Podsiadly and Hawkins.

Not an easy game to tip, but I give the Roos some chance.  Johnson copped a corked thigh last week while Selwood had a well publicised knock to the head.

Cats by 8 points, but not certs.   Roos a big chance, but beware of HIGH VARIANCE – almost anything could happen.


Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 8 points but the Roos won by 17.  Well, I warned you that the Cats were ridiculously over-fancied in this game and that it was a big danger game.  As noted, the first quarter was critical and North never relinquished their early lead.  Some regular Cats stars (Corey, Chapman and Johnson, who had a corkie in R2) produced low numbers for the match


Best cert:  Eagles So easy then Tigers  So easy


Best Outsider:  Port clearly Kicked poorly when a chance and then blown away; then Roos Good win, Pies Never a hope; very rough chances to Lions Tried hard without looking likely and Suns Gave us a great chance, but couldn’t sustain it


Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  Suns to win or get within 55 points of Essendon  Always safe in 2nd half


This is a week when quite a few hot favourites are too hotly fancied.  Overall, not an easy week to pick winners. One hot favourite, the Cats, got rolled.  A few others won by less than anticipated