Round 5, 2014 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to AFL Round 5, 2014

By Penny Dredfell

Added 14 April 2014

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: ouch!
The analysis was positive for the Blues and Tigers.  Both were really terrible in R4.  It needs to be said that technical analysis is an inexact science.  The Blues seem to be playing without any confidence at all.

The Tigers were always a chance to overrun the Pies late (due to the extra rest discussed last week), but they were blown away early and the “freshness” often disappears when the margin gets too big.

It is noted that the Q clash team of R3 (Suns & Lions) underperformed expectations by 75 and 79 points respectively in R4.  Interesting!

This week, the focus will be on the “Friday Night Shocker” (FNS).  When a team loses on a Friday night and significantly underperforms (enough to get the media talking about them all Saturday morning until game 2 begins – and this is why it works), then they tend to outperform expectations the following week.

Take Fremantle as an example.  They played the R3 Friday night against the Hawks.  The Hawks were narrow favourites, but won by 58 points.  Last weekend, the Dockers romped away from the Dons to win by 53 points, despite the game being considered a 50 /50 game.  While the Dons had obvious problems on the day (which helped to blow out the margin), it is postulated that the FNS assisted the Dockers to outperform expectations.

On Friday night R4, the Tigers were expected to get within a goal or 2 of the Pies, but lost by 38 points.  The “feel” of the game was that it was significantly worse than a 6 goal loss.

The FNS theory should enable them to outperform expectations this weekend.  Add to the mixture the fact that they get a 6 day break compared to Brisbane’s 5 day break, plus the high injury toll of the Lions (their injury + suspension quotient is the worst in the league at 26), and you end up with the Tigers having a big win.

In fact, those who need to pick a cert should favour Richmond – even ahead of Essendon and the Crows.

PS: I did promise to explain why it would have been good for the Blues to win narrowly last week.  That explanation will have to wait for another week.