Round 5

Data to be added Tuesday 24 April 2012

Scores after round 4 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp 
Tips correct: 7 (6,139 out of 70,823 for the week) and cumulative:
28 winners and improved to 11,855 out of 70,823 tipsters Streak:  tipped 2 of 2 certs correctly (current streak = 9)

50/50 tips: incorrect for the round (Eagles looked likely to win by over a goal until a Cyril cameo), so now at 3 out of 4 = 75% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

 Last Man Standing result: alive (Crows did it easily!)


Early thought for round 5:

OH NO!! You may have to enter all your tips before game 1 (ANZAC Day)
So, to help you cope,
the purple writing at bottom is the Monday night analysis.

On Tuesday night, we will have the teams for ANZAC Day.  On that night, the grid will be filled in and these will be the final tips for the round.  Comments in black may be added below.

However, on Thursday night, additional comments will be added after the teams for games 2 – 9 are announced.   The tips and margins in the grid will not change.  Extra comments will merely be added for those who are able to tip games 2 – 9 after ANZAC Day.


Game                         Tip    By  Variance                Outsider is

COLL v ESS COLL 9 EXTREME Dons are a chance
FREO V CARL CARL  11  EXTREME Dockers a definite chance
GWS V WBD WBD  29  EXTREME  Giants only a tiny chance
NMFC V SUNS NMFC  69  HIGH  Suns no hope 
MELB V STK STK  42  MEDIUM  Dees no hope 
BRIS V GEEL GEEL  20  HIGH  Lions a small chance 
HAW V SYD HAW  35  EXTREME  Swans a tiny chance 
RICH V WCE WCE  HIGH  Tigers are a HUUUUGE chance 
ADEL V PORT ADEL  13  HIGH  Port is a chance 

For those who can tip after about 7PM Tuesday, you will know the teams.  Essendon rested several VFL players on the weekend: Reimers, Slattery, Davis and Baguley, while Carlisle, Colyer and Dempsey may be some chance to return.  Who goes out will depend a lot upon recovery (for both teams).  Hocking and Hooker suffered shoulder and ankle injuries on Saturday, but Jobe Watson reckons they will be fine.  Hurley is the one certain omission with a hammie.
The Pies had Didak and N. Brown both play on the weekend in the VFL.  Elliott excelled in the VFL, but is unlikely to be called up as that was his first game for some time.  It is noted that none of Jonathon Ceglar, Kirk Ugle & Peter Yagmoor played VFL on the weekend and are not reported as injured.
The game is tough to pick due to the large number of injuries on each side and the short break.  Consequently, it will be an EXTRME variance game.  The fatigue factor will give it the feel of the 2010 GF replay (beauty, say Pie fans) in that it will be very hard to peg back any decisive lead.
The Pies should come up fresher because they had a slightly less taxing game on Saturday and the break prior to Saturday was 8 days.  The Dons had a 7 day break which included a flight back from QLD. 
Pies by 8 points, but far from certs.  If I could tip whoever is in front at quarter time, that would be my tip.

Sir James has warned us that there may be more changes to the Hurley out and Carlisle in.  The emergencies are Slattery, Colyer and Davis.  I expect Slattery to be a late inclusion and possibly one more.
Pies bring in Brown and first gamer Ugle (an obvious pick for ANZAC Day because his name rhymes with Bugle) for Paine and Young.
The game is totally dominated by the “Freshness” reading below, which I assign to the Pies by 2 goals.  This gets them over the line (if I have read it correctly).  I reckon any margin over 20 points will be insurmountable, given the fatigue factor.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  COLL + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: Even   

Current Form: ESS + 7

Freshness:  COLL + 12

Team Changes:  ESS + 4

Pyschological:  Even, but who knows

Injuries:  COLL + 2

Total:  Pies by 9 points

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 9 points and they won by 1.  Analysis was okay here.  The right team was tipped (just) and the fatigue factor meant that nobody should have been too confident.  It was a fascinating game from a technical viewpoint.  I set the “bar” at 18 points (from which a trailing team would not come back).  The Pies got to that margin in front briefly, but the Dons scored almost immediately (as if the Pies, technically speaking, didn’t want to break away and win easily).  In the end, the Bombers were outplayed but almost pinched it.  The feeling after the game from a tipping perspective: relief! 



This is another tough one to call.  The Dockers were terrific last weekend while the Blues flunked their test against the Bombers. 
Definite out for the Blues is Carazzo.  Laidler and Yarran copped injuries last week but are expected to be selected (I have some small doubts on them) while Armfield (handy at Subi) will be tested to see if he can return to the team.  Walker played his first VFL game on the weekend and is likely to be given another run there.
Freo are confident Fyfe will play.  If so, he may replace Neale as the only change.  Grover might be the other possible inclusion.
The Blues are favoured to atone here.  Last weekend, Carlton basked in the glory of a big Friday night win.  This time, it was the Dockers’ turn.  The Blues have been good on the road and they are tipped by 14 points.  Not certs in an EXTREME VARIANCE game.

“Ruckman Aaron Sandilands tweaked his knee and it bled down into his calf” according to
A likely replacement Jon Griffin injured an adductor in the WAFL last weekend.  Looks like they will go with Clarke (underrated) and Bradley.  Not too bad a ruck combination, but they will really miss Sandilands if he cannot get up for it.  I am tipping him as highly unlikely to play.
The Blues will get back Walker and have lost Laidler +Carazzo for sure with doubts on Yarran and Curnow.  Possible replacements after Walker would be Armfield, Ellard and Collins. 

With Sandilands definitely out now, but Fyfe back in (but can he play a full game), Freo are slightly worse off.  And there is a risk on the fitness of ruck replacement Griffin with Bradlet named as an emergency.  The Blues have definitely lost Yarran.  I would, if I could change, stick with a similar margin or slightly more to the Blues


Maths (in points)

Ability:  CARL + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: FREO + 24  

Current Form: CARL + 2

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  Even

Pyschological:  CARL + 12 (the shock of the Dons loss)

Injuries:  FREO + 3

Total:  Blues by 11 points


Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 11 points and they won by 9.  Analysis was pretty good here, although getting so close was more luck than anything, given the extreme variance rating and the wild fluctuations in the game.  But, although Freo had a chance to win, the Blues were the correct tip.  The game finished very late Melbourne time and the Blues struggled late in 4Q.

The big question here, from a technical analysis viewpoint, is: How good are the Dogs.  If they are rated as a half decent team out of form (and partially played back into form last weekend with an unimpressive victory over the Dees), then expect them to romp it in against the Giants.
If, however, they are a bad team who only won because they were playing a worse team, then the Giants have some chance.  I lean ever so slightly towards option A.
The experts have the Dogs huge favourites and they may be right, but I am not sure enough to even call them dead certs.
The Giants should get back promising tall Cameron.  The Dogs have Lake coming back from suspension.
This game is at the Giants’ other home ground – Manuka Oval in Canberra.  The Dogs have probably played there more than any Vic team.
Dogs by 27 points, EXTREME VARIANCE and not certs.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  WBD + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: GWS + 12    

Current Form: WBD + 9

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  Even

Pyschological:  WBD + 12 (see above as to how good the Dogs are)

Injuries:  GWS + 4
Total:  Dogs by 29 points

Post Match Review:  Dogs were tipped by 29 points and they won by 42.  Analysis was okay here, given that many were tipping 10 goals plus; and then the Giants lost Cornes before the game.  Given the Cornes out, I would have tipped the Dogs as certs.  Julia Gillard was at the match and heard somebody say “Sink the Slipper”.


You want a cert?  Here is a cert!  The Roos were disappointed with their effort vs Swans last weekend after knocking off the reigning premiers the previous week.  Against the Swans, they went in too top-heavy (considering the conditions) and had to sub out Goldstein (to the dismay of many DT/SC players) for team balance.  They will be on the ball well and truly this time.  They lose Thomas to suspension (BUT his appeal was successful and is now available
), but otherwise have a virtual full list from which to pick.  Garlett would be the logical replacement.
And with the Suns losing Ablett and Harbrow; and Swallow in doubt as well, the Suns have virtually no chance.
Roos by 69 points and certs of the round

Maths (in points)

Ability:  NMFC + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: NMFC + 18

Current Form: NMFC + 16

Freshness:  SUNS + 6

Team Changes:  NMFC + 14

Pyschological:  SUNS + 1

Injuries:  NMFC + 4
Total:  Roos by 69 points

Post Match Review:  Roos were tipped by 69 points and they won by 34.  Analysis was just fair in this instance.  The Suns also lost Rischitelli before the game.  Maybe the Roos took it too easily.  The Suns’ Swallow was doubtful midweek, but starred.  Despite the Roos being flat, they were still correctly named as certs.


Here is another team that looks a cert.  The Saints looked likely to overrun the Dockers late last weekend, but a few skill errors cost them dearly.  They suffered the “Friday night embarrassment” syndrome.  This will see them come out properly fired up this week.
They lose Kozzie and the likely replacement is Gram.  They are possibly one tall short, but this won’t matter against an injury-depleted Dees.
The Dees regain Grimes from suspension, but have a 6 day break compared to the Saints 8.
The Dees aren’t going well enough to win yet and the Saints are tipped by 45 points and certs.
It now appears that Sylvia is a cert to play and this will be a boost for the Dees.   Saints by 42 points and certs

Maths (in points)

Ability:  STK + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: Even   

Current Form: STK + 14

Freshness:  STK + 6

Team Changes:  MELB + 9

Pyschological:  STK + 12 (will be PRIVATLEY SEETHING about losing to the old coach)

Injuries:  STK + 1
Total:  Saints by 42 points

Post Match Review:  Saints were tipped by 42 points and they won by 18.  Analysis was just average here.  The Saints were expected to be “up and about” this week after losing to the old coach; but they appeared to struggle to gain the ascendency and looked like they weren’t as desperate as the Dees.  And all this with Frawley a late withdrawal for the Dees.  Melbourne are beginning to look better, but now face a tough draw.  Not sure if the Saints should have been tipped as certs.  You don’t want a cert to win the game in the final couple of minutes.


The Cats will be firm favourites here and should win.  But they are JG Just Going at present, so don’t label them as certs.
They will regain Scarlett
but lose Johnson to suspension (but overturned so he can play!)
.  Horlin-Smith and Stringer are possible omissions, while Byrnes and Hogan are chances to return.
The Lions have the advantage of playing 2 in a row at the Gabba.  The question is:  were they really up for the Suns game and due to come down a tad?  Hard to say, but possibly a bit.
The Cats are a clearly higher rated team and may be just beginning to find a bit of form.  Cats by 17 points
(make it 20) but not certs.  Lions a small chance

Maths (in points)

Ability:  GEEL + 30 POINTS

Home Ground: BRIS + 18    

Current Form: GEEL + 2

Freshness:  BRIS + 9

Team Changes:  GEEL + 9

Pyschological:  GEEL + 6
Injuries:  Even (Cats have more injuries, but no much change in recent weeks)
Total:  Cats by 20 points


Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 17 points and they won by 38.  Analysis was reasonable.   When you get a deluge like we had, it is common for the team which starts the better (Geelong in this case) to go right on with the job.  A Black day for Black on his 300th, but he was terrific in 4Q and helped his team cut the margin somewhat.  .  This is a hard result to assess.  The Lions had more inside 50s, more scoring shots and won the contested possessions.  But the Cats had the game in their control all day. 

The Hawks were terrific in defeat in a bizarre game against the Eagles last weekend.  This was on the back of 2 x 6 day breaks.  Birchall is a possible in this week.  The out is likely to be last week’s debutante Hill.  Rioli looked a bit proppy at the end of the game last week and may be in some small doubt.  Hodge has been a “test” for several weeks now and we will watch the news to see what transpires.
The Swans will definitely lose Rohan, but get Goodes back from suspension.  Mumford (infection) will be tested but is no cert.  Ditto for Smith (virus).
The Swans “pounced” on the Roos last weekend and were never going to lose.  Whether they can do the same to the Hawks is questionable.
I am debating whether or not to label the Hawks as certs.  The only worry is a letdown after their 3 big matches R2, 3 & 4 with the 6 day breaks in between.  They get a nice 8 day break now; so, as long as they are mentally switched on, they should win well.
Hawks by 37 points
(make it 35 and not quite certs) and will be considered as possible certs in the summary tomorrow.

Having thought long and hard, I have decided not to label the Hawks as certs.  There is still serious doubt over Birchall and Isaac Smith.  Bruest looks certain to come back in.  Hodge is considered likely to play, but hasn’t pulled on a boot for ages.  If Mumford misses, then the Hawks may be certs, but it is too risky and this has been called an EXTREME variance game.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  HAW + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: HAW + 15

Current Form: HAW + 4

Freshness:  HAW + 3

Team Changes:  SYD + 10
Pyschological:  Even, but hard to pick
Injuries:  SYD + 1
Total:  Hawks by 35 points

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 35 points but the Swans won by 37.  Analysis was waaaay off here.  The only saving grace was that the Hawks were NOT tipped as certs.  The Swans were 25 points down late in 1Q and thereafter outscored the Hawks 15 goals to 5.  This type of result is consistent with a virus affecting teams in the last millennium prior to drink bottle health improvements.  I suspect that either:

A – The Hawks had something like a virus through the club; or
B – The long trip back from a wet, tough Perth game and the trip to Tassie somehow flattened them.
Option C for Hawks fans is something far worse.
This tip ruined a perfect week.  But 9 winners will be tipped this year one week!

At first glance, it looks like another win to the Eagles.  I have my doubts.  The Eagles had the inside running against the Hawks last week (with the Hawks coming off 2 x 6 day breaks vs Eagles 8 + 6) and just fell over the line (it may have been different had they nailed an early goal or 2).  This makes one wonder whether they are due for a downer. 
Meanwhile, the Tigers showed improved form last weekend in losing narrowly to the Cats.  The doubt on the Tigers is whether the narrow loss will be flattening for them.  If it gives them self-belief  (hey, we almost beat the reigning premiers), then they are a big chance.
Another question is how Ivan Maric will compete against Cox and Naitanui (and who may be able to give him help).  Angus Graham was among the best in the VFL last weekend.  A wet Etihad would probably assist Richmond.
At this stage, it’s the Tigers by a goal, but I need more time to think about it.  In any case, the Tigers are the best “outsider” of the round.
Okay, I have chickened and gone the safe option of the Eagles to win by 3 points, but Tigers a HUGE chance.  The key issue is the psychological factors from last week’s game.   Are the Eagle splaying alike a team due for a loss?  Or did they merely struggle with the wet conditions (it has been a long, hot dry summer in Perth).  And will the Tigers gain confidence from their narrow loss to the Cats?  Or be flattened?  I think the latter slightly.  We will see. 

Maths (in points)

Ability:  WCE + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: RICH + 24

Current Form: Even

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  Even
Pyschological:  WCE + 12 (assuming the Eagles’ problem last week was the wet and the Tigers may be a tad flat after the Cats loss)
Injuries:  RICH + 3
Total:  Eagles by 3 points

Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by 3 points and they won by 10.  Analysis was beautiful.  This was truly a danger game and the Tigers were the best outsiders of the week (aside from the Swans, of course).  One could say that the Eagles could have won by more if not for injuries.  Then again, the Tigers could have won with a bit more poise in the final minutes.  The correct tip was made (just).  A great game to watch!


Don’t mistake this for the economic forecast.  That is a slowdown; this is a showdown. The Crows have come crashing back to earth in recent weeks – getting thrashed by the Hawks and then being unimpressive (but clear) winners over the Giants.  They did have injury excuses for their average showing last weekend; and get the benefit of playing 2 weeks in a row at home.  They will lose Vince to injury and maybe Petrenko.  Johncock and Callinan are likely additions to the team.
Port has been competitive enough to be dangerous here.   They have lost Gray for the season.  Redden and Salopek are chances to return.
The Crows by 14 points
(make that 13 points) but not certs.
The issue for the Crows is that injuries are starting to come.  Not many so far, but they began the year with virtually a clean sheet.  Port have made a habit of upset wins in Showdowns in the past.  A game to avoid, if you can!

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ADEL + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: Even

Current Form: PORT + 1

Freshness:  ADEL + 3

Team Changes:  Even
Pyschological:  ADEL + 6

Injuries:  PORT + 7
Total:  Crows by 13 points

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 13 points and they won by 19.  Analysis was good, but there is always a danger of an upset in Showdowns.  The way the scoring occurred in fits and starts testifies to the difficulty in predicting winners and margins in such games.  Happy to get out of it with the correct tip,


Best cert:  Roos   Eventually won like certs, then Saints (going conservative) Struggled, but got over the line in the end


Best Outsider:  Tigers the stand out best value almost did it, then Port form too patchy to win.  Dons went close and Dockers left their run too late also have chances


Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  Nothing stands out as extra safe this week, but Tigers to win or get within 3 goals of the Eagles.  A day unsuited to tall forwards would help the Tigers!!  Silly of me to emtnion weather when the game was at Etihad.  But the Tigers did enough to prevent a 3 goal + win by the Eagles!