Round 6, 2012

Round 6, 2012

Scores after round 5 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp 
Tips correct: 8 (~1,000 out of 71,287 for the week and cumulative:
36 winners and improved to a respectable 8,160 out of 71,287 tipsters Streak:  tipped 2 of 2 certs correctly (current streak = 11)

50/50 tips: correct for the round (Tigers got within 3 goals of the Eagles), so now at 4 out of 5 = 80% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

 Last Man Standing result: alive (North won easily enough)


Game                         Tip    By            Variance                Outsider is 

WBD V COLL        COLL  63         EXTREME          DOGS ARE NO HOPE AT ALL

ESS V BRIS             ESS      58         HIGH                    LIONS ARE NO HOPE AT ALL 

GEEL V MELB      GEEL  38         HIGH                    DEES A VERY ROIUGH HOPE ONLY 

GCS V FREO          FREO  22         HIGH                    SUNS SOME ROUGH CHANCE 

STK V HAW            HAW   31         EXTREME          SAINTS SOME ROUGH CHANCE 

SYD V ADEL          SYD     36           HIGH                    CROWS SOME ROUGH HOPE

CARL V GWS         CARL  68         HIGH                    GIANTS ARE NO HOPE AT ALL

PORT V RICH        PORT 15          HIGH                    PORT IS THE BEST OUTSIDER

WCE V NMFC         WCE  25          EXTREME          ROOS A VERY ROUGH CHANCE 

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamentalissues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

Warning: around about this week, some tipsters begin looking at the tipping ladder and begin to think about how to improve a spot on the ladder.   This is NOT the week to be adventurous!  There are 8 hot favourites (the experts pick them all by 4 goals or more) and the only “close” game is Port at home to Richmond where the Tigers are very narrow favourites.
Picking teams that are 4 goals + outsiders is a recipe for going down, as a rule.  I would say that once in about 5 years I would pick such a team and be VERY confident about them winning.  Last year there were 85 teams that were >= 4 goal outsiders and 10 of them won (plus Richmond drew with the Saints, so call it 11 if you like = 13%.  This year it is 2 out of 20 = 10% (with North beating Geelong and the Dons overcoming Carlton). 
So, it you want to win the comp, then avoid tipping the big outsiders (even if you feel that you MUST catch up one this week).  At this time of the year, patience plus picking the close ones correctly is the key to a high finish. 
But there is a great thrill when you tip a roughie and win the weekly prize.   You can do this by entering free on line comps and picking a roughie in one of them (it doesn’t cost you any money).


Pies easily

A study of the Pies in recent LONG breaks after an ANZAC day games shows that they have won all three games (2001, 2002 and 2007), although they underperformed while still winning in 2001.
So they are expected to “come up” okay after the break.
A big advantage for the Pies is having Rodney Eade (who coached the Dogs last year) who will be able to pick apart the Dogs’ game plan.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  COLL + 36 POINTS

Home Ground: Even   

Current Form: COLL + 4

Freshness:  COLL + 6

Team Changes:  Even

Pyschological:  COLL +12

Injuries:  COLL + 5

Total:  Pies by 63 points and CERTS

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 63 points and they won by 21.  Analysis was not too flash here.  The Pies won, but not like certs.  One key was the coaching duels, which I assumed the Pies would win.  But the Dogs won this easily, and Collingwood had to fight their way back into the game.  At least the Pies won it and kept the “certs” run intact.  Maybe the long break for the Pies suited the Dogs early.  And the 6 day break from interstate didn’t help the Dogs late in the game, although they gave up goals through errors in defence.  The late withdrawal of Jolly for the Magpies didn’t help their cause.


Dons comfortably
The Dons’ form coming off ANZAC Day and a long break has been patchy.  They have 2 losses and a win.  The win was an 88 point whopping of the Eagles in 2001.  They lost to Freo in Perth in 2002 and to the Hawks in 2006, but were expected to lose these ones anyway.
With more depth and home ground, the Dons look to be certs

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ESS + 30 POINTS

Home Ground: ESS + 18      

Current Form: ESS + 7

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  ESS + 6

Pyschological:  BRIS + 6

Injuries:  ESS + 3

Total:  Pies by 58 points and CERTS

Post Match Review:  Dons were tipped by 58 points and they won by 67.  Analysis was perfect.  They were correctly named as certs and had it won very early on.  Unsure why they were not more favoured (they were 5 goal favourites). 

Cats by less than last time!
This is the Dees’ best team for the year, despite the dropping of Watts.  Moloney had had a couple of weeks back and Sylvia will be improved by the run.  The question to be asked about the Dees / Saints game last week is:  was this a “turn the corner” game for Melbourne or was it an intense effort that they will not be able to reproduce. 
The only way the Cats could lose this one would be to have caught colds in the downpour last weekend in Brisbane.  We haven’t heard anything, but this concern means they won’t be tipped as certs

Maths (in points)

Ability:  GEEL + 36 POINTS

Home Ground: GEEL + 6    

Current Form: GEEL + 10

Freshness:  MELB + 6

Team Changes:  MELB + 3

Pyschological:  MELB + 7

Injuries:  GEEL + 2
Total:  Cats by 38 points

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 38 points and they won by 43.  Analysis was okay, but not as good as it looked.  Subsequent to the analysis, Selwood and Lonergan pulled out for the Cats.  Then they lost Bartel to an ankle injury and won easing down.  Should have been labelled as certs, in retrospect.

Freo without great confidence
The Suns are without Ablett, Rischitelli, Harbrow and Matera.  As such, you wouldn’t give them a sniff.  But Freo have lost Sandilands and Fyfe in recent weeks.   This is a danger game for Freo because they have had an honourable loss on a Friday night and now have an “easy win” game coming up.  The experts tip the Dockers by 40 points.  The tip here is a closer game, provided that the Suns don’t drop away too much due to lack of depth.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  FREO + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: SUNS + 24

Current Form: FREO + 9

Freshness:  FREO + 6

Team Changes:  SUNS + 1

Pyschological:  SUNS + 1

Injuries:  FREO + 15
Total:  Dockers by 22 points

Post Match Review:  Dockers were tipped by 22 points and they won by 7.  Analysis was quite good here, in view of the fact that Freo were hot, hot favourites.  This was correctly named as more of a danger game than most thought.  Maybe the Suns could have won had Bock not gone off injured, although the Dockers lost Hill early as well.


Hawks probably, but a bit concerned about them
The Hawks were the subject of a post-match review last week.   They were probably travel weary last week, with 2 trips in a row on the road (and coming back from Perth), plus having Hodge and Puopolo underdone.  But why complain about the draw? I would have been more confident had they bunkered down for the week and then let their play do the talking in round 6.  I currently have the Hawks as a 5 goal better team than the Saints.  But both teams are under review. 
There are 2 possibilities from a technical analysis viewpoint:
A: The Hawks hit bottom last week and will come out flying this week and smash the Saints (more likely)
B:  The Saints have been just going and the unimpressive win against the Dees last week will lead to an effort 6 – 10 goals above expectations (which would result in a good win.  This is less likely because the Saints have not been in a long form slump.
These 2 possible outcomes make the game an EXTREME variance game.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  HAW + 30 POINTS

Home Ground: Even   

Current Form: HAW + 4

Freshness:  STK + 12

Team Changes:  HAW + 4

Pyschological:  HAW + 6 (but anything could happen – see above!)

Injuries:  STK + 1
Total:  Hawks by 31 points

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 31 points and they won by 35.  Analysis was okay, but the Saints were in big trouble when McEvoy was a late withdrawal (although Kozzie starred in his absence).  The Hawks were temporarily down a rotation or two when Stratton and Hodge copped minor injuries.  Fisher’s red vest a half time was a blow for the Saints.  The correct team was selected and maybe could have been certs had we known about McEvoy.

Swans should win but not quite certs
The jury is still out on the Crows.  They overran Port last week, but Port had a few injury worries during the game and may have run out of fit players in the end.  The Crows are 4 and 1, but their only match against a recognised contender resulted in a thrashing at the hands of Hawthorn.  The Crows have won their last 3 at SCG vs Swans!
The Swans are flying a present at 5 zip, but their win against the Hawks was hard to assess.  Were they really good (probably), or did the Hawks just have a Darren Crocker?  It is this concern that will prevent the Swans from being tipped as certs

Maths (in points)

Ability:  SYD + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: SYD + 18     

Current Form: SYD + 10

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  ADEL + 3

Pyschological:  SYD + 4
Injuries:  SYD + 1
Total:  Swans by 36 points


Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 36 points but the Crows won by 5.  Analysis was waaay off here and the ONLY good news was that the Swans were not tipped as certs.  Maybe they were lulled by the win over the Hawks the previous week.  Maybe the Crows are better than we thought (although they got flogged by Hawthorn a few weeks earlier!).  Judgment will be delayed about the Crows for a while.  The Swans won the inside 50s 67 to 45 but still lost!


Blues are the certs of the week
The blues have rested Kreuzer, Judd and Waite (causing great distress to some DT/SC players).  Their ins are handy, and the Giants have also made multiple changes.  They have lost 3 to injury, but bring back some experience in Brogan, O’hAilpin and Palmer.
Expect the Blues to be on the job enough to win this comfortably.  Not necessarily by 100, in my opinion, but big certs nonetheless

Maths (in points)

Ability:  CAR + 60 POINTS

Home Ground: CAR + 18

Current Form: CAR + 13

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  GWS + 18
Pyschological:  Even
Injuries:  GWS + 5
Total:  Blues by 68 points and CERTS OF THE WEEK

Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 68 points and they won by 67.  Analysis was as good as it can be, although the loss of Brogan early hampered the Giants.  The real battle was always Carlton’s class edge vs their own complacency.  Class prevailed enough for a comfortable win and the Blues were correctly labelled as the certs of the week (not that it was a difficult call).

Port in a minor upset
The Tigers looked in terrific in defeat during rounds 4 & 5 – losing by 10 points to both the Cats and Eagles.  Meanwhile, Port was overrun by the Crows in the Showdown.  And Port’s form after showdown is spasmodic.  They were dreadful last year, but better in the previous few years.
The Tigers’ form looked better last week due to the Eagles using their sub early and then Kennedy hobbling with (now a serious) ankle injury.  And it was in Melbourne. 
Port were in front at ¾ time last week but stopped.  But the form is better than it looked because they subbed out Schulz at half time, then Wingard copped a significant eye injury and Surjan was below par after a Taylor Walker knee to the head. 
The home ground advantage sways it in favour of Port, but I don’t trust either team, so they won’t be certs.  I am still trying to get a correct rating on Port.
Incidentally, the Saints played the Dees in 1997 when both were 1 and 4 (just as Port and the Tigers are now).  The Saints won and went on to play in the grand final.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  RICH + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: PORT + 18

Current Form: RICH + 3

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  PORT + 4
Pyschological:  PORT + 6
Injuries:  RICH + 4
Total:  Port by 15 points

Post Match Review:  Port was tipped by 15 points but the Tigers won by 37.  Analysis was a long way off and OUCH!!!!!  The danger in tipping Port was always going to be how they would come back from the Showdown loss.   “NOT TOO WELL”, was the reply!  IT began at the toss.  Cassisi won it and kicked against the wind with rain on the way.  I wanted to change my tip right there and then.  In 2Q, their intensity was as low and their effort as poor as seen in 2012 by any team.  The interpretation is either:
A – a sign that the coach is in big trouble and now; or

B – they were just shockingly flat after the Showdown
In either case, they won’t be tipped with any conviction in the near future!

Eagles should win
The Eagles keep winning, but the injuries also keep coming.  And the Roos have almost no injuries at all!  The Eagles won this game last year in round 1 by 4 points.
Strong technical analysis suggests that the Eagles are heading for a loss soon.  When a team gets on a decent winning run and then begins to win narrowly when favourites, then expect a loss (usually a small one) when they are warm favourites.   If they survive this week, then the Dons might finish them off in round 7.
Expect Goldstein (in the 7 man bench at present) to play.
Apart from the technical analysis, the Eagles would be strongly fancied.  But the technical lead means they won’t be tipped as certs.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  WCE + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: WCE + 24

Current Form: WCE + 7

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  WCE + 1
Pyschological:  NMFC + 15

Injuries:  NMFC + 4
Total:  Eagles by 25 points

Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by 25 points and they won by 25.  Analysis was centimetre perfect, although the “due for a loss” thought takes some gloss off the tip.  However, the withdrawal of Naitanui may have changed the margin somewhat.  Still surprised that Goldstein didn’t get a game!

Best cert:  Blues  Never in doubt, then Pies A struggle but got there and Dons  Never in doubt


Best Outsider:  Port is the shortest price of the outsiders this week and the best chance by far of the outsiders  They were truly dreadful!.  The Suns may be a fluky chance  Gave a great sight


Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  Bombers to win by over 33 points  Never in doubt


Happy tipping!  See warnings above in red!