Round 6, 2013

Round 6, 2013

Scores after round 5 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 8 (good) and an improvement from 26,323 to 20,554 out of 65,536 tipsters (for the statisticians, 65,536 = 2 to the power of 16)

Accumulator: 11.36 (great!!) and ranking improved from 5,283 to 3,918 out of 11,782 tipsters

Last Man Standing Comp: Alive (with Dockers falling over the line). Streak:  tipped 4 of 4 certs correctly (Suns winning easily and lived dangerously with Swans, Dockers and Hawks squeaking in). The streak is now 7.

50/50 tips: 1 out of 3 correct for the round (Dockers didn’t win by enough, Dogs got close enough, and Hawks didn’t win by enough), so now at 6 out of 11 = 55% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Early thoughts for R6: The Dons are the absolute certs of the week, but watch for some players to be possibly rested. Also keen on the Pies, Swan, Blues and Eagles.  The other games (North v Port, Crows v Hawks, Tigers v Cats and Suns v Dockers) are intriguing with the chance of some upsets occurring in the middle of the round.

Apologies for lack of table format

Round 6, 2013

Games                  Tip / By    Variance       Outsider is:        
1 COLL V STK        COLL 29       HIGH             a tiny chance

2 ESS V GWS           ESS 90           HIGH             No hope

3 NMFC V PORT   NMFC 16      EXTREME   Some hope

4 ADEL V HAW      HAW  18        EXTREME   Some hope

5 RICH V GEEL     GEEL 23       HIGH             Some hope

6 SUNS V FREO      SUNS 16        EXTREME   tipped to win

7 SYD V BRIS          SYD 40          HIGH             a tiny chance

8 CARL V MELB    CARL 33       HIGH             a tiny chance

9 WCE V WBD        WCE 96         MEDIUM      No hope

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions



The Pies to hit back hard

Both teams played on ANZAC Day.  The Saints have to return from NZ.  This has never been done by a team before, but the 8 day break means that this will be of little consequence.  Of more significance is that the Saints seemed to be really “UP” for the NZ game and there is a possibility that they may be on a downer this weekend.  Scott Watters has been really “geeing” them up during the week, as if it is needed.  Good news for them is that the game is at Etihad – where they do better than at the MCG.

The Pies were tipped to have a downer last week and kindly obliged.  Following the technical chart, top teams usually bounce back well from the 5th week shocker.  The two examples we have in recent times were the Cats who outperformed expectations by 58 points in the 6th week and Carlton in 2011 (a borderline top team) who were 19 points better than expected in week 6.

But, before one gets too excited about the Pies – the fundamentals are poor.  Firstly, Ben Johnson (tipped to play on ANZAC Day) is still not back. They also lose Hudson (although ably replaced by Jolly and Witts) on top of Toovey.

The inclusion of Witts will be a big thrill for Pie fans, but may indicate that Jolly is still not 100%.

Finally, 5 changes is bordering on too many to feel comfortable about the tip.

Having said all that, the technical chart lead will push us in favour of the Pies just enough to tip them in the Accumulator, but not as a cert.

Maths (in points)

Ability: COLL + 24 POINTS

Home Ground:     STK + 6

Current Form:   STK + 1

Team Changes:  STK + 9

Psychological:    COLL + 20

Freshness:    COLL + 6

Injuries:        STK + 5

Total:     Pies by 29 points
Accumulator tip:  COLL ~ 1.18 (but Saints at ~5.00 is tempting!)

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 29 points and they won by 26.  Analysis was reasonably good.  The Saints had Lenny Hayes injured in the warm-up and this didn’t help.  The technical lead about the Pies outperforming expectations didn’t really happen (well, they finally won by about 3 points more than expected, but with the loss of Hayes and the 3Q exit of Gilbert, it wasn’t a Pie effort to get really excited about).  In the end, the Pies would be happy to get out with a win, given the players out.   The Saints just aren’t quite up to top 8 standard at present as they go through a type of rebuild.




Certs of the week

Just in case it wasn’t easy enough for you to tip the Dons, GWS have announced 7 changes to the line-up tis week.  This includes O’hAilpin and Davis injured + Thornton dropped.  Gilham is the only experienced “in”.  And to add to the problems, this is their 5th week on the road in a row!!!!!

To be obliging, the Dons have rested Winderlich and Heppell.

No more comment needed, except to watch for any last minute omissions if you play DT/SC.

Maths (in points)

Ability: ESS + 30 POINTS

Home Ground:   ESS + 18

Current Form:   ESS + 28

Team Changes:  ESS + 3

Psychological:    GWS + 3

Freshness:    ESS + 18

Injuries:        GWS + 4

Total:     Dons by 90 points and CERTS of the week
Accumulator tip:  ESS ~ 1.01

Post Match Review:  Dons were tipped by 90 points and they won by 39.  Analysis was just fair; but the Dons were still rightly tipped as certs – despite taking until well after half time to hit the lead.  Maybe the 10 day break and the fact that they were playing the bottom team lulled them into a false sense of security.  This is the most likely explanation.  The Giants game was sandwiched between big matches against Collingwood and Geelong.  Well done to the Giants to do so well at the end of their long list of road trips. .01




The Roos without confidence

It should be noted that Ken Hinkley is staying in Adelaide this weekend due to a virus; he is expected to only miss one week. This “omission” is rated as neutral in terms of analysis.

A curio is that the team “1 and 4” is favourite to beat the unbeaten “5 and 0” side.  It is tempting to go with Port while they are seemingly on a huge roll.

Prior to R5, they were beginning to show signs of heading for a loss.  This appeared to be the case when they fell 41 points behind the Eagles last week, but fought back magnificently to snatch an exciting win.  It should be noted that the Eagles lost key midfielder Priddis early and their sub was activated in 1Q.  Port’s sub Robbie Gray starred when he came on.  Also, Port had the wind in 1Q and 3Q; then it swung around to a mainly cross wind at 3QT.  So the Eagles were stiff, although they also missed some easy shots to put the game beyond doubt.

The come from behind win can be seen as a big boost; or it may be the last gasp before the inevitable downer.  It is hard to find a similar pattern to Port’s, but the Cats in 2011 won their first 6 games and then came from behind to beat the Pies in an upset the following week in a hugely emotional game.  The week after, the Cats won narrowly, but unimpressively (with a bit of luck), by 2 points over the Blues.  The Cats underperformed by 18 points that night.

Any underperformance by Port will automatically give the win to the Roos here.

But the Roos have a case of “DANGER VOUS” in that they lost a game they should have / could have won against a top side last week and now go to Hobart.  Earlier in the year, they threw away a big lead over the Cats to narrowly lose; then they were towelled up by Sydney the following week at Blundstone.  Port is lower ranked than the Swans, but there is a possibility that North may be flat after another such loss.

They cannot afford to drop this one if they intend to keep in touch with the finals.

With the EXTREME VARIANCE, the Roos will be tipped, but Port will be the Accumulator tip

Maths (in points)

Ability: NMFC+ 6 POINTS

Home Ground:     NMFC + 9

Current Form:   NMFC + 2 (despite the win loss records)

Team Changes:   EVEN

Psychological:    NMFC + 1

Freshness:     EVEN

Injuries:       PORT + 2

Total:     Roos by 16 points
Accumulator tip:  PORT ~ 3.2.

Post Match Review:  Roos were tipped by 16 points and they won by 10.  Analysis was pretty good in this case; although it was slightly surprising that Port came back so well when they looked totally down and out.  Port fans may have noticed the free kick count of 38 to 15 in favour of North.  The Accumulator tip was wrong but justified in terms of value.




The Hawks in a danger game

At a quick glance, one sees the loss of Walker on top of Tippett means that the Crows have no hope.  Everyone is asking “where will the goals come from?”  Well, if nobody knows, then how do the Hawks plan to counter the plan?  You see, the Crows will be far less predictable and one-dimensional now.

Of course, the Hawks are much higher rated and deserve to be favourites.  But they also lose a key forward in Cyril this week.

The only other concern about the Hawks is whether they have been “up” for too long.  Probably not, but their win last week was one of a team struggling to get up each week.  They were aware of their 7 game run against the 2012 finalists, so we all expected them to be on top of things until they play the minnows in R8 & 9 (when they can have a bit of a rest).

This is another EXTREME VRIANCE game and another where the outsider will be tipped in the Accumulator, for value.

Maths (in points)

Ability: HAW + 30 POINTS

Home Ground:     ADEL + 18

Current Form:   HAW + 7

Team Changes:   EVEN

Psychological:    ADEL + 6

Freshness:     EVEN

Injuries:        HAW + 5

Total:     Hawks by 18 points
Accumulator tip:  ADEL ~ 4.25.

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 18 points and they won by 11.  Analysis was quite good. Again, however, the Accumulator tip was incorrect but justified in terms of value.  Please note that each team had a late withdrawal, and that tended to even things out.  The Hawks, as mentioned above, are playing like a team that has been up for a long time..




The Cats to roll on

The Tigers went SOOOOO close last week in Perth, against the forecast in this website.  That form would give them a chance against the unbeaten Cats.  Another thing in their favour is that the Cats may be on a downer.  After their first 4 wins, they were really tested late by the Dogs last weekend.

Now there are 2 ways to view this:

A. R5 was Geelong’s “week off” where they rested players and still managed a win.  So they will be up again in R6; or

B. They have entered a flat spot and are vulnerable.

Option A is slightly favoured, and assisted by the fact that Enright is playing his 250th game.  Usually milestone games are ignored in pre-game analysis.  The Tigers scored an upset win in SOS’s 300th game for the Blues, as an example.  But the fact that Enright is both a modest player and a big star may inspire the Cats enough to ensure they stay in option A territory.

This is one key to the game.  The other is the tendency of teams in Richmond’s position (out of the 8 the previous year and then start the year with a string of wins – followed by a string of losses) to flounder for a few weeks after a bad loss (as was the Collingwood defeat).   The narrow loss last week to the Dockers may be a sign that they have snapped out of things very well – or it could serve to push them under again.

If the Cats are playing as per option B above, they are likely to fall away late in the game – maybe to squeak a win, or to get overrun.

On a fundamental basis, the Dockers lost Bradley early last week and this unsettled them.  It gave the Tigers an advantage when they brought on Nahas as sub, but he failed to fire.  Jack Riewoldt had his worst game by numbers last week and has been whacked in the press.  Expect him to improve a little.

Maths (in points)

Ability: GEEL + 12 POINTS

Home Ground:     EVEN

Current Form:    EVEN

Team Changes:  GEEL + 1

Psychological:    GEEL + 8

Freshness:     EVEN

Injuries:        GEEL + 2

Total:     Cats by 23 points
Accumulator tip:  GEEL ~ 1.38 (but Tigers at 3.05 is reasonable value).

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 23 points and they won by 44.  Analysis was quite good here, as the experts were tipping a smaller Geelong victory.  The Cats lost Chapman before the game, but this was more than offset by the injuries to Tigers Vickery, Maric and Grimes.  The Tigers actually led by 19 points in 2Q, but lost the lead prior to half time (before they had any great injury problems).  This is a sign that the Cats are playing like a top team.




The Suns in an upset

This is the hardest game of all to select and it is a little surprising that Freo are such clear favourites.

The Dockers have trouble everywhere as far as injuries go.  In the big man department, they are missing Sandilands, Pav, Clarke (back soon) and now they have lost Bradley.  Young tall Tanner Smith is also missing (has been injured, but now named as an emergency) while Jon Griffin “wasn’t sighted at the airport” when the team flew east.  Another non-sighting was Stephen Hill who is out injured.  Unlike Hill, Griffin has been named.  Watch the news on Friday to see if anything breaks prior to putting in your tips.

To add to their woes, Hill is out to add to Fyfe being suspended

On the positive side, Crozier had 34 touches in the WAFL last week.

Another potential downer for Freo comes out of a study on the WA teams after a Tassie game.  Tassie is the hardest trip for them logistically.  While the Eagles and Dockers tend to do okay after coming home from Tassie (averaging 9 points better than expected over all games played, although results vary all over the place).  But the week following (2 weeks after Tassie and when they have to travel again) yields an average underperformance of 15.  Right now, Freo are a 14 point favourite over the Suns!! Interesting!  This factor is loaded up into the Psychological area below.

Before we get too excited about tipping the Suns, it is worth remembering that they played the Giants last week when the Giants were on the road for the 4th consecutive week. This factors as a significant negative in the psychological area.  And the week before was a shocker against the improved Port team.  But Bennell is a big “in” to help the midfield.  Crowley has gone to Gazza in the past and this is again likely.

One plus for the Suns is that they have already had their second “high” (>=20 points above expectations, achieved in R1 v Saints and R5 vs Giants) at round 5.  Lowly ranked teams whose 2nd high comes this early generally tend to hold the positive form.

The challenge for the Suns will be to use their big man dominance (a rare thing mentioned about the Suns) to good enough effect to win.

But all the above factors make the variance extreme!!

Maths (in points)

Ability: FREO + 24 POINTS

Home Ground:     SUNS + 21

Current Form:   SUNS + 1

Team Changes:  SUNS + 9

Psychological:    FREO + 1 (a myriad of plusses and minuses for the teams – see above)

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:        SUNS + 10

Total:     Suns by 16 points
Accumulator tip:  SUNS ~ 2.75.

Post Match Review:  Suns were tipped by 16 points but the Dockers won by 45.  Analysis was a long way off!! OUCH!!!  The Suns had a great chance but were never really in the race.  This was a great win by a severely undermanned Dockers team.  The Suns were not helped by an injury to Dixon, poor numbers by Bennell in his first game back from injury and similar problems for Lynch in his 2nd up game after being great last week on return from injury.




The Swans almost certs

There is a big temptation to name the Swans as absolute certs.  Two factors stop this from being done.  Firstly, the Swans are returning from NZ and on a 10 day break between games (which is too long when it doesn’t contain a bye).  Secondly, the Lions snapped out of poor form with an unimpressive win over a lowly team in Melbourne.  This sometimes precedes a team going 6 – 10 goals better than expected the next week.  This pattern would be more likely had they lost the Suns game, but is still a small possibility.

Apart from that, the Swans look the Goodes – more so because Martin, Maguire and Staker are still out for the Lions, as well as smalls Beams and Rich.  Simon Black was expected back, but hasn’t made it just yet. At least Hanley returns from suspension!

It may be a bit wimpy, but just put down the Swans as winners, but not certs.

Maths (in points)

Ability: SYD + 18 POINTS

Home Ground:    SYD + 18

Current Form:   SYD + 8

Team Changes:  BRIS + 6

Psychological:    EVEN

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:        SYD + 2

Total:     Swans by 40 points
Accumulator tip:  SYD ~ 1.05.

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 40 points and they won by 60.  Analysis was reasonably good, and both tips correct.  A worrying sign is that Cornelius was subbed off a half time without any report of an injury.  Both concerns about naming the Swans as certs turned out to be non-issues.  The Swans put the game away early and showed no ill effects of playing in NZ.  And the Lions were really off early and still show no signs of a resurgence.




The Blues to win by less than the huge margin most are tipping

Key injuries to Melbourne make it hard for them to mount a major assault on the Blues.  The loss of Watts and Jamar make the game almost safe for Carlton.  Once again, we are erring on the side of caution in not tipping the Blues as certs.  But with the Bombers playing GWS, who needs to this week?

Gawn has arrived JIT to replace Jamar while Spencer has been brought in as a back-up to Gawn.

The wait for Waite is over, but he must surely be underdone a little.  Whether this shows on Sunday or the week following is unknown.  Maybe he could be the (unusually tall) sub!

The doubt on labelling the Blues as certs stems from the fact that they are moving into a big lot of winnable games and there is a risk they may get too comfortable for some of them.

However, the Dees have made a habit of capitulating badly this year, and this habit may blow the margin out late if they are not vigilant.

Maths (in points)

Ability: CARL + 18 POINTS

Home Ground:     EVEN

Current Form:   CARL + 12

Team Changes:  CARL + 5

Psychological:    MELB + 3

Freshness:     EVEN

Injuries:        CARL + 1

Total:     Blues by 33 points
Accumulator tip:  CARL ~ 1.05.

Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 33 points and they won by 61.  Analysis was just fair.  The margin tipped was way too small, but the Dees did have some excuses.  They lost Grimes midway thru 1Q for the day.  They also made 6 changes (there were a minimum 3 announced on Thursday night) and this is too many for the sake of stability.  The 6 changes would have pushed the expected margin out by another goal or 2.  In the end, both tips were correct and no great harm done.




The Eagles to fly very high

The return to form of the Eagles began last week – sort of.  A couple of things pointed to things getting better.
One is that they were heavily backed at the bookies and then were overrun late.  That tends to be a sign that the money arrived “one week early”.  And teams in this circumstance generally outperform expectations the following week.

The other is that they lost Priddis early and then lost their expected wind advantage in 4Q last week.  So the loss wasn’t as bad as it seemed.  They had no sub to bring on late (he was on early in 1Q) while Port brought on Gray who almost got leather poisoning once on the field.

The Dogs looked good against the Cats, but Geelong had rested Chapman + Hawkins and were also due for a letdown after their tough week 1 – 4 campaign, which ended with beating the premiers in Sydney.

And the Dogs are still missing Griffen, Gia, Murphy, Williams, Wood and Goodes (all due back soon)

The Eagles are huge certs in this one and don’t look for anything to go wrong for them this time.  Yes, Nic Nat may be underdone; but it won’t be anywhere near enough to cause any trouble.

Maths (in points)

Ability: WCE + 30 POINTS

Home Ground:     WCE + 24

Current Form:   WCE + 7

Team Changes:  WCE + 2

Psychological:    WCE + 25

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:       WCE + 8

Total:     Eagles by 96 points and huge certs
Accumulator tip:  WCE ~ 1.02.

Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by 96 points and they won by 70.  Analysis was reasonable and the Eagles were correctly tipped as absolute certs.  The loss of Waters prior to the game didn’t help them.  Also, the loss of Shuey (on your boot) early in the last reduced their ability to rotate (although Shuey really starred prior to then).  Had those things not occurred, the 96 point margin may have been a chance.  Meanwhile, the Dogs just have too many senior players out.




Best cert: Dons (got there comfortably in the end), then Eagles (never looked like missing)

Best Outsider: Suns are easily the best outsider of the round and are tipped to win (never looked likely)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):   going for 3 games again

Suns to win or to lose by less than 2 goals (never looked likely)

Dees to win or lose by less than 10 goals (was always going to right until a goal after the siren)

Eagles to win by more than 57 points (always looked likely and got there late in the game)

Happy tipping!  This is not a good round to go too bizarre with your tipping (and 9 favourites won!)