Round 6, 2014 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R6, 2014

By Penny Dredfell

Added 21 April 2014

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: for anyone who has to tip ONE ONLY cert for the week, last week’s report was extremely valuable.  It steered the reader away from the Bombers (importantly) and Crows and on to the Tigers.  And, even though the Tigers gave viewers reason to doubt, they eventually drew away to win well.

All teams have to travel.  Occasionally, teams will have to travel by plane 2 weeks in a row.  When that occurs, they are normally assessed at -1 goal in the second week.  So if a team would normally be expected to draw a match in week 2 of their “travels”, they should be assessed as losing the week 2 match by a goal when making predictions.

There is one team, however, who has to travel in weeks 4, 5, 6, 7 & 8.  The Giants played a R4 “home game” in Canberra.  This is only a short flight – but a flight, nonetheless.  Then R5 took them to Adelaide. They travel to the Gold Coast for R6.  Let’s pause here to consider their chances of a win over the Suns this coming week.

The experts have this pegged as a 28 point win to the Suns.  At this expected margin, they are on the brink of being called certs. Given the fact that Mumford will be missing and Shaw is a test, maybe 6 goals is a more realistic assessment of the game – 3rd week of travel not factored in.

Now add the travel factor to the equation.  While the travel factor is a -1 goal in week 2 of travel, it increases for week 3.  It is -2 goals at least for week 3. With this fully factored in, you now have the estimated margin blowing out to 8 goals.  This makes the Suns the biggest certs of the week.

While this won’t help many tipsters, just remember the fate of all those who picked the wrong “cert” last week in Essendon (see review above).

Another interesting thing to investigate is when a team pulls out a heroic win – despite significant injuries.  They are lauded in the media for winning against the odds.  But it sometimes tends to drain them the following week.  The more meritorious the win, the more likely they are to underperform the following week.

The classic example of this is Hawthorn in 1990 when they lost Brereton and Dunstall to serious injuries in R9 vs Melbourne (that year Melbourne were a decent team and eventually beat the Hawks in an elimination final).  The Hawks were 14 points down at QT (with Brereton and Dunstall both off injured), but drew away to win by 44 points.  It was possibly their greatest win of the year.   But the next week, the Hawks played Fitzroy (who struggled that year) and Fitzroy won in a huge upset by 14 points.

The Blues play the Eagles at the Docklands this week.  The experts are having trouble splitting them.  But, on the basis of the historical lesson, the Eagles deserve to be tipped by over 2 goals.  This is not enough to make them certs, but the Blues would probably need the luck to go their way to win.