Round 7, 2013


Round 7, 2013

Scores after round for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 8 (not that great as many got 9) for a total of 40 and a drop from 20,554 to 27,346 out of 65,748 tipsters

Accumulator: 6.74 (ordinary) and ranking dropped from 3,918 to 4,882 out of 11,786 tipsters

Last Man Standing Comp: Alive (with Dons winning) Streak:  tipped 2 of 2 certs correctly– streak now 5

50/50 tips: 1 out of 3 correct for the round:
The Suns got pumped (incorrect)
Dees had to lose by less than 10 goals and lost out on a kick after the siren (just missed)
Eagles won well (correct)
So now at 7 out of 14 = 50% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Early thoughts for R7:  this is a tough week to pick winners! At this early stage it’s Hawks over Swans and Cats over the Dons.  The Dockers / Pies and Dees / Suns games are tough. Roos look the best certs, while the Giants and Lions will be huge outsiders with some tiny chance each.  Quite keen on Port and Carlton.

Apologies for lack of table format

Round 7, 2013

Games                  Tip / By    Variance       Outsider is:        
1 GEEL V ESS         GEEL 11       EXTREME   a definite chance

2 PORT V RICH     PORT 42       HIGH             no hope at all

3 BRIS V WCE        WCE  1          EXTREME   a huge chance

4 WBD V NMFC     NMFC 35      HIGH             no hope at all

5 HAW V SYD         HAW  30        HIGH             a tiny chance

6 FREO V COLL    FREO 11       EXTREME   no real outsider here

7 GWS V ADEL       ADEL 24       EXTREME   a tiny chance

8 MELB V GCS       MELB 1         EXTREME   no real outsider here

9 STK V CARL        CARL 22       HIGH             a tiny chance

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions



The Cats to roll on – probably

The AFL website has a story in which Mark Thompson suggested that the off field news may have adversely affected their start against the Giants.  One thing is for sure – they cannot afford to repeat this against the Cats this week.

Thompson went on to say that this week (leading up to the Cats game) is another week where staying focussed will be a major challenge.

Geelong’s win last week was their 2nd high (they outperformed expectations by 28 points vs the Swans and then were, again, 28 points better than expected last week over Richmond).  Top team usually hold their form in early season after such a chart formation.

While on charts, the Bombers were 54 points better than expected against the Pies, then 51 points worse than anticipated vs the Giants last week (but still won comfortably).  The 3rd week in such cases for top teams usually results in a slight underperformance.  An example of this is the Pies in 2010.  In R20, they belted Essendon by 98 points.  Then they fell over the line vs the Crows at the MCG (on a day when they were expected to win by about 10 goals).  The following week, they were warm favourites vs the Hawks and were overrun late.

Both teams have shown signs that a loss is nigh.  The Cats were on a half day holiday against the Dogs, then they only blew the Tigers out of the water when Richmond had injuries.

The Dons have been great, but spluttered against the Giants (albeit with some stars missing).  They would have been more highly fancied this week had they been ruthless in the 4Q, rather than just cruising to the line.  GWS had quite a few regulars out as well that day.

Normally a large number of team chances would be a negative.  But in Essendon’s case, this will not be a concern (so long as the “ins” are all fit), because this group has played together for most of the year.

The Cats are still missing Chappy and the “ins” are a first gamer Thurlow and Shroder, who played 1 game last year.  They may play like 100 game veterans, but it is curious to see that they got in ahead of Caddy and Josh Hunt, for example.

The above factors make the game an EXTREME variance game.  As such (and with the Geelong team changes), the Dons will narrowly be the tip in the Accumulator; but the technical lead says “Geelong”.

Maths (in points)

Ability: GEEL + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:     EVEN

Current Form:   GEEL + 3

Team Changes:  ESS + 13

Psychological:    GEEL + 17

Freshness:    ESS + 3

Injuries:        GEEL + 1

Total:     Cats by 11 points
Accumulator tip:  ESS ~ 2.32 (narrowly).

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 11 points and they won by 28.  Analysis was reasonably okay, but there was some pain in that the line-ball decision on the Accumulator was incorrect.  And although the Accumulator was incorrect, the Dons won most of the stats (except for accuracy in goal-shooting)
The EXTREME variance call was considered correct due to the extreme swings in the score AND in the control of the ball.  Trouble for the Dons is that they kicked a big bag of points in 3Q when dominating for a period; and ended up losing the quarter.  The Cats were also helped by their newish “ins” doing well.  All of the Dons’ inclusion were serviceable.



Port to roll on

The Tigers would have pencilled this in as a win when the 2013 draw first came out.  Now Port, at 5 and 1, are favourites.

A glance at the ladder would lead one to pick Port at home for sure.  But the Tigers have had tougher opponents.  In fact, when one looks at the upcoming fixture, this is a “must win” game for Port in their bid to play finals.

This match and the away game to the Dogs appear to be their most winnable games prior to their R11 bye (the others are an away game to the Blues and a home game against the Cats).

The experts expect Richmond to make it and Port to just miss out.

The big concern for the Tigers is the injuries to Grimes, Cotchin, Vickery and Petterd.  And the small doubts on Maric and King.  Stephenson’s inclusion is probably to cover Vickery, but it does make one wonder about Maric’s fitness.

When a team like Port begins with a string of wins and then has a loss, a bad loss if a bad sign.  Last week’s loss was a “good loss” in that they outperformed expectations (narrowly) and also came late at the Roos when all looked lost.

The Tigers have just hit their second significant underperformance for the year.  For a middle of the table team like Richmond at this time of the year, it generally results in a team underperforming the next week by a small margin.  And any underperformance here will mean a loss.

There is a chance that Richmond could come out firing with a “backs against the wall” attitude, but this is rated as an unlikely scenario.

Mark Williams (long ago) and Troy Chaplin are both ex Port, but things are a bit different this year.

The bad injury news for Richmond has just caused the Port tip to be as certs.  Certainly the experts seem to have Port underrated STILL.

Maths (in points)

Ability: RICH + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:     PORT + 18

Current Form:   PORT + 2

Team Changes:  PORT + 12

Psychological:    PORT + 11

Freshness:    RICH + 3

Injuries:        PORT + 8

Total:     Port by 42 points and CERTS
Accumulator tip:  PORT ~ 1.55.

Post Match Review:  Port was tipped by 42 points and but the Tigers won by 41.  Analysis was horribly astray. SORRY!!!!!!! Port was never in the hunt after being blown away late in 1Q.  The technical analysis will have to be further reviewed.  They played like the loss last weekend in Tassie sapped them of all confidence.  Those to have AS (Absolute Shockers) were Neade (okay, he is young and can be forgiven) and Hartlett.  The late withdrawal of Cassisi didn’t help as the replacement Daniel Stewart didn’t fire.

The Tigers were fantastic and had to deal with the loss of Knights 2Q and Tuck injured in 3Q and struggling thereafter.  Their big win may indicate that finals are on the radar.  Their form trend will be watched with interest.



The Eagles, but not at all convinced

The Eagles fans are hoping that they are “back in town”.  In reality, they are at Mandurah and heading in the right direction.

The return of Nicnat (even as a sub) was a bonus last week.  But now they lose Masten and Kerr, while still missing Embley, Butler and Waters.

Sooner or later, the Lions will hit some sort of form.  So far, they have underperformed expectations for each of the first 6 weeks.  This will feel like an eternity to Brisbane fans.  Looking at other recent runs from R1, we have the Crows in 2010 who were in the negative R1-6 and then outperformed by 34 points in R7.  That same year, Richmond underperformed for the first 7 weeks (a record of sorts) and then did better than expected finally in R8 when they narrowly lost to the Hawks.  In 2012, the Saints have 5 underperformances to begin the year (with a bye in the middle) before going 13 points better than expected in R7.  Last season, both Melbourne and Collingwood were worse than expected for R1-4.  Then Collingwood exceeded expectations by 2 points in R5, while the Dees were 20 points better than expected.  So the lions are “due” to outperform, but they can still do this and lose (as the Eagles are approx 5 goal favourites).

The Eagles lost their match last year to the Lions when they were warm favourites.  They are at risk of repeating history again.

The return of Black may help the Lions.  They have a bit too one dimensional with Brown up forward.  When Brown excels, they have won (twice and not impressively).  But when he struggles, they have looked terrible.  That is why the inclusion of Lisle is important.  IT will give them a second target inside 50.

In retrospect, the R1 loss should have rung alarm bells that the NAB Cup win was a false dawn.

The Lions are genuinely expected to FINALLY outperform expectations this weekend.  The big question is: will it be enough to win?

Maths (in points)

Ability: WCE + 24 POINTS

Home Ground:     BRIS + 24

Current Form:   WCE + 9

Team Changes:  BRIS + 11

Psychological:    WCE + 1

Freshness:   EVEN

Injuries:        BRIS + 2

Total:     Eagles by 1 point
Accumulator tip:  BRIS ~ 4.25.

Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by a point and they won by 26.  Analysis was probably better than it looked, although the Lions have only themselves to blame.  They gave away 3 goals through ridiculous errors or indiscipline.  The game always felt like a 1 – 2 goal result, but blew out late.  The Supercoach scores were Lions 1735 to Eagles 1566!   It was a little surprising that Simon Black was the sub; and the Eagles’ sub was ex Lion Dalziell.  Both subs excelled when they came on.  The Accumulator tip was incorrect, but still worth the risk on value.



The Roos look home!

The Dogs look a lot better (on paper) with Giansiracusa, Griffen and Murphy named.  But they have been out foe 2, 2 & 3 weeks respectively.  So there may be a doubt that all will perform to their capacity first up.  Even with the return of these players, the Dogs still have a much longer injury list than the Roos.

Speaking about weeks out of the game, Harvey returns from suspension this week.

With the lower rating for the Dogs, the trip back from Perth on a 6 day break and the longer injury list, the Roos look the safest certs of the week.

Maths (in points)

Ability: NMFC + 12 POINTS

Home Ground:     EVEN

Current Form:   NMFC + 11

Team Changes:  WBD + 2

Psychological:    NMFC + 6

Freshness:    NMFC + 6

Injuries:        NMFC + 2

Total:     Roos by 35 points and CERTS OF THE WEEK
Accumulator tip:  NMFC ~ 1.06.

Post Match Review:  Roos were tipped by 35 points and they won by 54.  Analysis was pretty good and the Roos were correctly labelled as certs of the week.  The Dogs’ experienced “ins” were terrific, as was Markovic, who kicked 3.  Their trouble was that Jones had a shocker and some fringe players hardly contributing. 
For the Roos, Harvey’s first game was great and Daw had his best figures by far in his short career.  It appeared that the Dogs tired greatly in 4Q (outscored 9:5 to 4:0) and maybe the 6 day break back from Perth “got them” once the game was lost.  It was a typical high-scoring Roos / Dogs game



The Hawks to “atone”

The Hawks are in week 7 of 7 playing all the other 2012 finalists first up.  After this match, they play 3 lowly teams leading into the bye.  So they can drop off dramatically in intensity after this week and still go to the R11 bye at 9 and 1 (if they beat the Swans).  They have appeared to be “just going” in the past 2 wins over the Roos and Crows.  It is hard to be up for so long and there is a small doubt that they may be flat.  But far more likely is that they have been “saving themselves” for the GF replay.   The fact that the 2012 cup was “the one that got away” will be a motivating factor.  There is a sense in which a win will “redeem” last year’s loss (without the transfer of a flag, of course).  And why so many “”?

The Swans are STILL missing Rhyce Shaw; and are yet to hit top form.  Unlike the Hawks, they have 5 losable games leading up to their R12 bye.  They will definitely be up to “defend their crown”, but they cannot afford to totally collapse after R7 (as the Hawks sort of can).

There is a rumour going around that Buddy was slightly ill last week.  Maybe this is true; maybe not.  But expect improvement from him this week.  And Brad Sewell will also be better for the run last week.

This all leads to a bigger Hawks win than most expect; and they are ALMOST certs.  The only trouble about the “easy” games coming up for the Hawks is that they may tend to slacken off late in 4Q  – especially if they have a nice lead (or they are way behind).

Maths (in points)

Ability: HAW + 12 POINTS

Home Ground:     HAW + 15

Current Form:   HAW + 1

Team Changes:  EVEN

Psychological:    HAW + 3

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:        SYD + 1

Total:     Hawks by 30 points
Accumulator tip:  HAW ~ 1.57.

Post Match Review:  The Hawks were tipped by 30 points and they won by 37.  Analysis was perfect.  In fact, they should have been a nomination for the 50/50 below.  The loss of Mumford didn’t help help the Swans, but they probably would have got close with him anyway.  This was one game where the experts just got it wrong.  And the Hawks did slacken off a bit late in the game – mainly because they didn’t continue to charge ahead.  The Swans won 4Q by 4 points.




The Dockers just, but please avoid this game if you can!!

These teams both have a lot of top quality players missing.
Just when Pie fans thought things were getting better, Ball still doesn’t return; Johnson misses another match after supposedly being a cert to return for ANZAC Day; and now Goldsack goes down!!

The surprise early call-back of Maxwell is a bonus.  He had a wrist injury, s his aerobic capacity should be okay.  But his main asset is his ability to direct traffic in defence.

The Dockers could have had Fyfe for this match had they not rolled the dice and challenged his 1 match suspension a while back.  Griffin is currently the number 1 ruckman and DID NOT TRAIN early in the week.  Keep an eye on news regarding him.  If he were to withdraw, this would probably change the tip to the Pies

Freo have just hit their 2nd high and top teams (as the Dockers are currently rated) usually outperform expectations after such an occurrence at this time of year.

But BEWARE!!! The variance is EXTREME because of the factors above and the very wet weather in Perth this week.  AVOID!!!!!

Maths (in points)

Ability: COLL + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:     FREO + 15

Current Form:   FREO + 2

Team Changes:  COLL + 3

Psychological:    FREO + 5

Freshness:    COLL + 3

Injuries:        FREO + 1

Total:     Dockers by 11 points
Accumulator tip:  FREO ~ 2.18.

Post Match Review:  The Dockers were tipped by 11 points and they won by 27.  Analysis was very good – especially if it helped people from being too confident about the Pies.  Picking the winner and the Accumulator was a bonus.  The best “call” was the EXTREME variance prediction.  This was vindicated by the wild fluctuations in the game.  Re Griffin above: there was no news at all about his injury until he did his knee in 1Q.  So the warning had been given.  But the Dockers had great momentum already by the time he went off.  The Pies looked to be finishing full of running at 3QT, but they were 1 man short on the bench soon after (having lost Clarke early, then Mooney 1/3 way through the last).  They also had Maxwell underdone and he didn’t get a touch in 4Q.  The slightly underdone Krakouer only had it once in 4Q.





The Crows, but hard to get excited

The big question to ask is: was last week’s effort by the Giants a blip?  Or the start of some good form?

Similarly, we are all wondering what level the Crows are going to perform at this year without Taylor Walker.  Someone else can grow a mullet, but they will need to improvise a bit re his other positive qualities.

The Giants bring back Brogan and Whitfield, which is a help.  But still no Setanta!!  A few players who are not too travel weary will help.  But the Crows will still be fresher due to the Giants heavy recent travel schedule.

The Crows’ narrow loss to Hawthorn appears to have been somewhat overrated.  The Crows will be tipped without great enthusiasm. AND THEY ARE NOT CERTS!!!

Maths (in points)

Ability: ADEL + 18 POINTS

Home Ground:     GWS + 18

Current Form:   ADEL + 10

Team Changes:  GWS + 4

Psychological:    ADEL + 8

Freshness:    ADEL + 12

Injuries:        GWS + 2

Total:     Crows by 24 points
Accumulator tip:  GWS ~ 11.00 (long shot with a rough hope).

Post Match Review:  The Crows were tipped by 24 points and they won by 135.  Analysis was WAAAAAAAAAY off!!  The Accumulator tip for GWS was looking good only for about 5 minutes; then the route began.  There was always a danger that the reasonable showing vs Dons last week by the Giants was a false lead.  But few expected that any resultant downer would be that bad.  And now they go to Tassie to play the Hawks!!



The toughest match of the round to pick

This is a match to avoid, from a tipping viewpoint.  It may be one of the most interesting games of the round though – in terms of what we learn about both teams.

The Dees have upgraded Nathan Jones to co-Captain.  They have just lost both captains to injury.  The player response to Jones as Captain (for at least one week) may have an impact on the game.

The return of Dawes is a plus, but he may work even better when Clark returns – bringing back memories of Neitz and Schwartz.

The Suns just hit their second low in R6.  Lowly ranked teams generally have a slight up after such an occurrence.

The Dees would probably be tipped if we knew their administrative problems were all behind them.

And the Suns would be smiled upon more if we knew that Dixon was definitely fit (after being subbed off last week with an ankle injury)

The easy way out is to pick one team to win and the other in the Accumulator

Maths (in points)

Ability: SUNS + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:    MELB + 18

Current Form:   SUNS + 1

Team Changes:  MELB + 4

Psychological:    SUNS + 12

Freshness:   EVEN

Injuries:        SUNS + 2

Total:     Dees by 1 point
Accumulator tip:  SUNS ~ 1.91.

Post Match Review:  The Dees were tipped by 30 points but the Suns won by 60.  Analysis was a long way off.  At least the Accumulator tip was correct.  The result probably said more about the Dees than the Suns; although credit should be given to Gold Coast for their ability to crunch a team when it was down.  It looks like the Dees problems are still a long way from being fixed.  The effort was a “sack the coach” type performance.  Maybe not this week, given that there is a brand new CEO in place, but things look grim.  Look for any news on them (and there will be lots) during the week which is relevant to analysis and tipping.







The Blues to remain in the eight!

Blues fans will have a feeling of DANGER VOUS.  In R7 last year, they were flying fairly high with an easy Monday night game against the Saints.  They were warm favourites (just like this time) and ended up losing by 4 goals.  The Blues looked slow that night.  And among the Saints’ best were Goddard, Hayes and Ray.  All will miss this week, unless Ray makes the cut when the 7 man bench is trimmed on Friday.

A different outcome is expected this time.  Garlett played his worst full game for the year in R7, 2012.  Yarran missed that match.  Positive output from these 2 will go a long way to getting a win.

St Kilda has had a 10 day break since the Pies game and a further 8 day break before that.  These breaks are really too long and probably won’t help them.

Gwilt is a natural replacement for the injured Gilbert, but Gwilt himself had only had 1 run in the 2s since his knee injury.

Kreuzer comes back for the Blues.  They can cover him if he doesn’t come up, but where is Gibbs?  He was taken off “as a precaution” with hamstring soreness 2 weeks ago and still hasn’t been cited!!!

The Blues look fairly safe, but won’t be labelled certs.

Maths (in points)

Ability: CARL + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:     STK + 6

Current Form:   CARL + 6

Team Changes:  CARL + 4

Psychological:    CARL + 13

Freshness:   EVEN

Injuries:        STK + 1

Total:     Blues by 22 points
Accumulator tip:  CARL ~ 1.25.

Post Match Review:  The Blues were tipped by 22 points but the Saints won by 9.  Analysis was a bit off, but there were excuses for the Blues.  Also glad not to tip them as certs.  They lost Carrazzo on the weekend and SHOULD NOT have played Yarran.  And maybe Kreuzer shouldn’t have played (especially with 2 other talls in the team – although they eventually wore down the Saints big men!).

The Saints may have been the Accumulator tip (or close to it) with the loss of Carrazzo.  Also the Blues appeared to play like they only had to turn up to win early.  In the end, and despite lack of rotations, they almost overran the Saints.  The reason for this (surprisingly) may have been the recent long breaks faced by the Saints.  This has been a common trend for teams coming off the bye or facing breaks of 9+ days between games.




Best cert: Roos (pulled away to win well), then Port (awful, when “awesome” was anticipated)

Best Outsider: Lions (great for 3 ½ quarters), then Dons (not quite up to it)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  Port to win by over 15 points (awful, as above)

Brisbane to win or to lose by less than 23 points (this was going to be a success until a few seconds to go – OUCH!!)

Happy tipping!  This is a VERY DIFFICULT week to tip.