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Round 7

Data to be added Thursday 10 May 2012 

Round 7, 2012

Scores after round 6 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp 
Tips correct: 7 and cumulative: 43 winners and dropped down the ladder to 12,063 out of 71,587 tipsters

Footytips.com.au Streak:  tipped 3 of 3 certs correctly (current streak = 14 with not one miss)

50/50 tips: correct for the round (Dons won by over 33 points), so now at 5 out of 6 = 83% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

 Last Man Standing result: alive (Blues won easily enough)


Early thoughts for R7:  Round 7 is a good chance to catch up on the leaders without risking too much.  There are 3 or 4 games which the experts consider tricky.  The upset for R6 was the Swans losing at home to the Crows.  How this result is viewed has a big impact on the vital Tigers / Swans and Crows / Cats games this week. 
One “close” game is the Dons / Eagles and I reckon the Bombers are almost over the line.  Make sure you pick them!

 

Game                        Tip    By       Variance                   Outsider is 

MELB V HAW       HAW   45         MEDIUM             DEES ARE NO HOPE AT ALL

GWS V SUNS          SUNS   13         EXTREME          GIANTS ARE A DEFINITE CHANCE

ADEL V GEEL       ADEL  1            HIGH                    CROWS A BIG CHANCE

RICH V SYD             SYD    1            EXTREME          THERE IS NO OUTSIDER HERE

ESS V WCE              ESS   45            HIGH                    EAGLES ARE NO HOPE AT ALL

BRIS V COLL        COLL  36          HIGH                    LIONS A VERY ROUGH CHANCE

NMFC V WBD       NMFC  14          HIGH                    DOGS ARE SOME CHANCE

FREO V PORT       FREO 49          EXTREME          PORT ARE NO HOPE AT ALL

STK V CARL          CARL 43          HIGH                    SAINTS ARE NO HOPE AT ALL

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

Psychological:  includes teams about to peak or drop in form, players coming into form after injury, technical analysis observations, whether a team is really UP for the game or, alternatively, horribly flat; and other things not covered by the other categories.

1. MELB V HAW
Hawks easily

While the Dees’ form has improved from dreadful to competitive in recent weeks, Hawthorn has been pretty consistent (except for a shocker against the Swans).  The injury lists of both clubs are coming down, but the Hawks are a far better team and won’t lose this one.  They are certs.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  HAW + 48 POINTS

Home Ground: Even   

Current Form: HAW + 10

Freshness:  MELB + 6

Team Changes:  MELB + 6

Pyschological:  Even

Injuries:  MELB + 1

Total:  Hawks by 45 points and CERTS

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 45 points and they won by 66.  Analysis was okay here, but it wasn’t all that hard to name the Hawks as certs. 

2. GWS V SUNS
A tough one to pick! Suns without confidence
This is the first genuine chance for the Giants to have a victory.  Of course, the Suns will be desperate to break their duck as well.  The Suns website says that Ablett, Rischitelli, Swallow and Brennan will all need to “get through training unscathed before we fly out to Canberra”.   So get news on who makes the flight on Friday of you can.  Based on 2 or 3 minimum of these playing, the Suns should win.  The 6 changes for the Giants is about 1 change too many.   In a way, it’s the game of the round.  For those who just want to pick the team playing the Giants as the certs of the round, this week is a good week to do something different.


Maths (in points)

Ability:  SUNS + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: GWS + 12    

Current Form: Even

Freshness:  SUNS + 3

Team Changes:  SUNS + 6 (but watch the Friday news for possible changes)

Pyschological:  Even (but hard to pick)

Injuries:  GWS + 2 

Total:  Suns by 13 points

Post Match Review:  Suns were tipped by 13 points but the Giants won by 27.  Analysis was just fair.  The wrong team was picked (that’s never good), but you were warned that this was an EXTREME variance game.  The Suns had injuries to Swallow (though he went in under an injury cloud anyway) and Dixon, while Ablett ran out of gas in the end.  You were warned not to tip the Suns as certs!

 

3. ADEL V GEEL
Crows just, but a very tough game
The most successful one line tipping tip in the past 5 years is: Tip the Cats.
But they have not been in top form this year so far.  The Crows’ Brenton Sanderson and Darren Milburn know the Cats’ players and game plan as much as anyone.  This will be of some help.
The key to this game and the Tigers / Swans game is how to interpret last week’s Swans / Crows game.  Are the Crows that good, or just on a bit of a roll?  Or are the Swans that bad?  Did the Swans have a downer after beating the Hawks?
In rounds 6 – 12, the Crows face all 2011 finalists plus Freo in Perth.  We will know a lot more about the Crows after these games.
The Cats were happy to rest Selwood and Lonergan last week, but Bartel is in doubt.  This would be the deciding factor.  If Bartel was a cert, then the Cats would be the tip.  With the doubt, the tip is Crows by a point.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  GEEL + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: ADEL + 18  

Current Form: Even

Freshness:  GEEL + 3

Team Changes:  GEEL + 7

Pyschological:  ADEL + 7

Injuries:  GEEL + 2
Total: Crows by a point
 

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 1 point and they won by 66.  As soon as Bartel (see above) and Scarlett were late withdrawals, the Crows should have been firm favourites.  The margin was a surprise, although the Cats copped an injury or 2 more than the Crows in the game and this didn’t help.  At least the right team was tipped 

4. RICH V SYD
Tough game to pick; Swans just
See comments in above game re Swans and also Penny’s technical analysis here in the website:
http://longggey.com/heart-blame/penny-dredfell/tigers-2012-st-k-1997
The technical analysis which suggests that the Tigers might win is not strong, as Penny notes in her article.
The Swans may have lost the game last week due to LRT having a heel injury.  They lose him (and Goodes) and his place is taken by the much maligned White.  LRT was the back-up ruckman last week and so a fit White (even though not as good a player) will help them in the ruck.  The Crows absolutely smashed the Swans in the ruck last week.
The Tigers have lost their back-up ruckman Tyrone Vickery to injury and go into the game with only Ivan “the mullet” Maric.  But Angus Graham is an emergency.  Are they waiting on the weather before deciding if they need a 2nd ruckman? 
The better news for the Swans in the ruck is reason that the Swans are tipped this week.
The Tigers face three more 2011 finalists in rounds 8 – 10, so this is a critical one.
The uncertainties for both teams makes this an EXTREME variance game.

 

Maths (in points)

Ability:  SYD + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: RICH + 15

Current Form: Even

Freshness:  SYD + 2

Team Changes:  Even

Pyschological:  SYD + 6 (but hard to pick)
Injuries:  RICH + 4
Total:  Swans by a point
 

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 1 point but the Tigers won by 29.  This is a “sorry” case.  Sorry!!  The analysis was poor.
 I went against the Tigers because they weren’t the team to hurt the Swans in the big man dept.  But the Swans are running low on bog men who are fit.  They are missing Mumford, Goodes and LRT – and their replacements are barely up to it.  Too much faith was put in White and Reid.  Surely Reid must be rested this week.  Meanwhile, Maric does it alone (well, with a chop out from Miller).

 

5. ESS V WCE
Dons by lots
As per last week’s preview, the Eagles are playing like they are due for a loss.  Last weekend, the Roos were not quite good enough to do it in the west.  On top of that, the injuries and suspensions are starting to catch up with them.  In fact, in almost every area (see below), the Dons stats are in the positive this week.   The press has been hot on players ducking into tackles this week, with the Eagles receiving the more frees from this than any other team.  The upshot is that either the Bombers with be acutely aware of this when tackling and / or the umps will be more lenient on the tackler this week.
The Bombers are still undervalued by the experts.  And this appears to be the one the experts have assessed wrongly.  Bombers by plenty in this one.
 

Maths (in points)

Ability:  Even

Home Ground: ESS + 24      

Current Form: ESS + 4

Freshness:  ESS + 3

Team Changes:  ESS + 1

Pyschological:  ESS + 6
Injuries:  ESS + 7
Total:  Dons by 45 points and the CERTS of the week
 

Post Match Review:  Dons were tipped by 45 points and they won by 61.  Analysis was perfect, especially considering most expected a close game.  The reasons listed above for the big margin were all correct; plus the Eagles losing Priddis didn’t help. 

6. BRIS V COLL
Pies look the goods
The Lions lose Hudson and his bears at a bad time (Leuenberger still out and Longer struggling).  This is almost enough to make the Pies certs.  But the Maggies are still missing Thomas and Jolly, although Didak returns. The Pies are very slowly getting their best team together – hopefully (for them) just in time before they play the Cats and Crows (in Adelaide) in rounds 8 & 9.  They other reason that they are not certs is that the Dogs last week had Djerrkura and Jones injured from last week when they performed badly.  So the Pies have been down-rated on their win last week because the Dogs may have been overrun due to these injuries.


Maths (in points)

Ability:  COLL + 36 POINTS

Home Ground: BRIS + 15    

Current Form: COLL + 7

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  COLL + 11

Pyschological:  BRIS + 12
Injuries:  COLL + 1
Total:  Pies by 36 points but not certs

 

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 36 points and they won by 58.  Analysis was reasonably sound here.  Perhaps the Pies could have been labelled certs, but the struggling win against an injured Dogs’ team made me cautious.  No harm done and correct team selected.

7. NMFC V WBD
Roos tipped without huge confidence
This is one of the games the Kangas would have pencilled in as they try to cement a finals spot.  The Roos are the better team and have Goldstein back, but there are a few small things against them.  Firstly, the Eagles were vulnerable last weekend and the Roos couldn’t nail them.  Next, they played the late Sunday game in Perth.  They will still be tipped because they are a higher rated team; but the Dogs’ form is just as good at present. 


Maths (in points)

Ability:  NMFC + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: Even

Current Form: Even

Freshness:  WBD + 2

Team Changes:  NMFC + 6
Pyschological:  WBD + 6
Injuries:  WBD + 2
Total:  Roos by 14 points but this is a danger game


Post Match Review:  Roos were tipped by 14 points but the Dogs won by 18.  Analysis was reasonable.  The Roos looked flat early (after travelling west last weekend).  Perhaps more could have been made of the fact that the Dogs ran out of fit players last week vs Collingwood (see Pies preview above).  The positive is that the Roos were not tipped with any confidence.


8. FREO V PORT
  
Freo should win comfortably
Port had an AS Absolute Shocker last weekend.  There was an article by M Rucci in Adelaide to suggest that the coach is under the pump.  If the Richmond loss was a “sack the coach” loss, then they are likely to get smashed in Perth.   The other possibility is that the boys might rally behind Primus and fire up big time.  While both scenarios are possible (and this makes the game an EXTREME variance game), it is hard to see them doing enough to win in Perth – especially with Sandilands back in the team.  Freo are CERTS.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  FREO + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: FREO + 24

Current Form: FREO + 9

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  FREO + 4
Pyschological:  Even (but hard to pick)
Injuries:  PORT + 1
Total:  Port by 49 points and CERTS

Post Match Review:  Dockers were tipped by 49 points and they won by 40.  Analysis was pretty good here.  The question was: will Port show some fight?  And they did early on, but were not good enough to pull off an upset win.  As such, Freo were correctly tipped as cert and never in doubt from 2Q onwards.

 

9.  STK V CARL
Blues by plenty
The Saints are in trouble without McEvoy and facing the Blues with Kreuzer + Hampson.  Also, Judd and Waite come back well rested. 
Fisher has been named for the Saints are expecting to miss a few weeks with a hammie.  He must be extremely doubtful to play.
The Blues will wake from their slumber last week and win easily.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  CARL + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: Even

Current Form: CARL + 5

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  CARL + 13
Pyschological:  Even

Injuries:  CARL + 1
Total:  Blues by 43 points and CERTS



Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 43 points but the Saints won by 24.  Analysis is never good when a CERT gets rolled.  SORRY!!!!!  Too much emphasis was put on McEvoy being out.  Also, the 9 day break is too long – which often means that one of the teams does not come up.  The Blues were certainly not at their best for this game, but that takes credit away from the Saints, who were terrific.

Best cert:  Bombers (won easily), then Hawks (won easily), Blues (got rolled) and Freo (won easily)

 

Best Outsider:  Crows (won easily), while some chances to Giants (but check team changes in that game) (won well) and Dogs (won well).

 

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  Bombers to win by over 11 points  (never in doubt)

 

Happy tipping!  This week there are some BIG certs and some very tough games to pick.