Round 8, 2013

Round 8, 2013

Scores after round for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct:  and an improvement from 27,346 to 25,994 out of 65,940 tipsters.

Accumulator: a VERY POOR 6.72 and ranking dropped from 4,882 to 5,793 out of 11,788 tipsters.

Last Man Standing Comp: Alive (with Roos winning easily).    8 brave souls tipped GWS to beat the Crows as their cert of the week. Streak:  tipped 1 of 2 certs correctly– streak came crashing back to earth when Port lost. SORRY!!! Back to zero, then up to 1 when the Roos won.

50/50 tips: 2 out of 2 incorrect for the round.
Port was never in the hunt.
The Lions were always going to get within 23 points until the final 50 metre penalty and kick of the game.
So now at 7 out of 16 = a poor 44% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Early thoughts for R8: Hawks, Tigers and Dons look like obvious certs.  No big news there.  Also very keen on the Eagles. More news as the week progresses.

*  Please note that no AFL players were involved in any “reserves matches” (WAFL, SANFL, NEAFL, VFL) last weekend, because state vs state matches were being played.

Apologies for lack of table format

Round 8, 2013

Games                  Tip / By    Variance       Outsider is:        
1 WCE V NMFC     WCE 20         HIGH             SOME CHANCE

2 ESS V BRIS           ESS 50           HIGH             NO HOPE

3 HAW V GWS        HAW 88        EXTREME   NO HOPE

4 SUNS V WBD       SUNS 14        HIGH             SOME CHANCE

5 COLL V GEEL     GEEL 30       HIGH             A TINY CHANCE

6 SYD V FREO        SYD 39          HIGH             NO HOPE


8 RICH V MELB     RICH 47        HIGH             NO HOPE

9 ADEL V STK        ADEL 25       HIGH             A TINY CHANCE

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions





The Eagles, without total confidence

After hearing someone singing “This old man came rolling home” recently:

Vital game, Friday night

Both teams now doing all right

And with Nic Nat, Majak playing for their teams

Looks like a promoter’s dream

The fundamental analysis is all one way traffic in this game.  The Eagles are so far ahead in rating and home ground advantage that they should almost be certs.

The technical analysis, however, rings alarm bells about the Eagles.  It doesn’t suggest that they will lose, but it puts a big dampener on the Eagles winning big.  The technical analysis is known as “2 up 2 down”.  The rules of 2u2d refer to how well the team performs against expectation. 
Week 1 (in this case, round 4) needs to be an underperfomance as a rule – the Eagles were -43

Week 2 needs to be better than week 1 (they were -7, which is better than -43)

Week 3 has to be a positive and at least 12 points higher than W2 – the eagles scored +14

Week 4 meeds to be lower than W3 and higher than W1 – and it was at +4

Week 5 should then, according to the technical analysis, lower than W4.  This works 70% of the time.  Given the fact that W4 is +4, the expected range for W5 is from +3 and below.  With the Eagles as a 20 point favourite, the 2 up 2 down can work and they can still win.

What the tech. does for us in this instance is to still tip the Eagles, but not as certs (as would have otherwise been done).

The 96 point win over the Roos will be remembered, but is not expected to affect the R8 result one way or another.

Expect Swallow to be a late withdrawal with a sore knee.

Maths (in points)

Ability: WCE + 18 POINTS

Home Ground:     WCE + 24

Current Form:   WCE + 1

Team Changes:  WCE + 6

Psychological:    NMFC + 27

Freshness:    NMFC + 6

Injuries:        WCE + 4

Total:     Eagles by 20 points
Accumulator tip:  WCE ~ 1.38.

Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by 20 points and they won by 2.  Analysis was pretty good and the technical analysis was more accurate than the fundamental. The Eagles were -18 and a bit lucky to win.  Maybe the “correct” call would have been North ~3.15 in the Accumulator.  Maybe the Roos should have won, but the Eagles had a few injuries on the night.

North in front, digging in

Looking like they had the win

But with Nic Nat starring, doing it alone

The Eagles came rolling home.




The Dons comfortably

The Lions’ game last week vs the Eagles was better in many ways than a 4 goal loss.  But they did give away 2 goals with silly mistakes.

Is this the sign of a turnaround?  Or just a minor blip?  The answer given here will be: UNKNOWN, but even the positive answer would not be enough to get the Lions over the line.  There is also a slight worry that getting blown away late, after looking possible winners, may deflate them.

They do tend to go to J Brown too much; and if they are doing this, then they need the smalls at his feet to pick up the crumbs.

The Bombers need to recover quickly from their first loss for 2013. They have tougher games coming up in R9-11, so a little slump now would be costly. 

Similar to the Lions, there is a chance that their first loss may deflate them slightly.  But, again, it would probably not be enough to cause a loss.

Please note that Dempsey was fit to resume, but is playing VFL due to disciplinary reasons.

Maths (in points)

Ability: ESS + 18 POINTS

Home Ground:   ESS + 18

Current Form:   ESS + 8

Team Changes:  ESS + 5

Psychological:    ESS + 1

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:       EVEN

Total:     Dons by 50 points and CERTS
Accumulator tip:  ESS ~ 1.04.

Post Match Review:  Dons were tipped by 50 points but the Lions won by 10.  Analysis was poor, although virtually everyone pencilled in the Dons are absolute certs.  It is noted that the Dons were 63 points worse than expected and their R7 opponent (Geelong) were 26 points below expectations.

So it seems that there was a letdown from that R7 Friday night game.

Also, the Lion revival (as indicated by better numbers against the Eagles last night.

The Dons “shocker” brings back memories of previous years when they were dreadful in the mid-season time frame.  The other thing to note is that Hurley went off early with concussion and Stanton produced only 51 SC points; so he was WAAAAY off his best.  Another “in” in Merrett struggled.  “Lacked intensity” said Hird.  As always, when a CERT loses, the word is SORRY!!





The Hawks are certs of the week

This tip is not rocket surgery.  It is top rated vs bottom rated on a ground unfamiliar to the Giants.

Guerra is still not back for the Hawks.

There is still no O’hAilpin, Davis and Cornes to add to the experience.  Brogan went off with a back injury last week and may be in doubt.  The “ins” for the Giants would appear to be those who are on the fringe of club retention.  And the dropping of Treloar – well, you could’ve knocked me down with half a brick!!!

The Hawks are about 16 goal favourites and this looks roughly correct.  For those expecting the Hawks to totally blow GWS out of the water, the team selections tend to favour this idea.  But remember that the Hawks have just come off playing the other finalists from last year (all 7 of them in their first 7 games).  Now they play the two expansion clubs, then Melbourne leading into the bye.

So the likelihood exists for a letdown this week, knowing that they will still win.  And beware of late changes to the Hawks team.  There are no rumours around, but anyone who is a bit sore may get rested.

These factors make this an EXTREME variance game, without any likelihood of a Giants win.

Maths (in points)

Ability: HAW + 54 POINTS

Home Ground:     HAW + 12

Current Form:   HAW + 25

Team Changes:  HAW + 11

Psychological:    GWS + 22

Freshness:    HAW + 9

Injuries:        GWS + 1

Total:     Hawks by 88 points and CERTS OF THE WEEK
Accumulator tip:  HAW ~ 1.0100

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 88 points and they won by 83.  Analysis was almost perfect.  The positives were that the Hawks were obviously the CERTS OF THE WEEK and that the temptation to pick them by a huge margin (like 140 or similar) was resisted.  They were always going to be a bit flatter than in the GF “replay” last weekend.





The Suns without great excitement

Guy McKenna would be happy with the Suns’ first ever win in Victoria.  The question for us tipsters (in possibly the toughest game of the round) is how they will respond to this.  A positive response would strongly point to a win here, whilst a letdown from the celebrations puts the Dogs in with a real chance.

For the Suns, there is still no Dixon and K Hunt; and May may be a risk after being red vested and looking injured last week.  They finished well against the Dees last week despite lacking rotations late in the game.  That may be a plus for the Suns or a minus for Melbourne.

For the Dogs, Williams and Wood are still out (with Williams an emergency – good enough for the best 22, but underdone).  There is also a concern that they were very good early, but were blown off the park late in the Roos game (after being competitive).  And this, for a lowly team, often leads to a poor performance the following week.

Maths (in points)

Ability: EVEN

Home Ground:  SUNS + 18

Current Form:   SUNS + 7

Team Changes:  WBD + 8

Psychological:    WBD + 2

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:        SUNS + 1

Total:     Suns by 14 points
Accumulator tip:  SUNS ~ 1.69.

Post Match Review:  Suns were tipped by 14 points and they won by 32.  Analysis was good enough.  The question we had was to “rate” the Suns’ win.  The answer was to believe it.  Also, Jones had a shocker for the Dogs and was subbed off.  In the pat 6 weeks, he has had 3 SC scores between 75 and 100, but another 3 under 30.  If he doesn’t fire, their marking options up forward are limited.  Jesse Lonergan was very good and Gazza was just good on the day.  The Suns are on the up.





The Cats to keep purring

Just when you thought the worst was over for the Pies, they lose Clarke, Shaw and Thomas.  Johnson was supposed to be back for ANZAC Day, and has just re-appeared in the VFL team.  Goldsack is still out as well.  There was some doubt on Q Lynch after last week’s game; and the inclusion of Witts may be because of doubt on Lynch. 

Collingwood just has too many players injured, suspended or underdone to be at their top at present.  Their injury + outs rating is now 25 (allowing 4 for superstars out down to 1 for fringe players out and assigning portions for players underdone).  This is the worst rating in the AFL at present.  Ball’s return helps, especially as he is an inside midfielder.  Williams has great promise and it is good to see him getting a game.

The Pies need to, somehow, pinch at least one of the next 2 games to get to 5 and 4.  From R10 onwards, they have a series of winnable games and they need to get players back and fit in this time period.  If so, a flag is still on the horizon.

The Cats will not be tipped as certs, however, because they have several problems of their own (but wins have diverted attention from them).  They are still missing Chapman and now lose Kelly and T Hunt (replaced by J Hunt).

When a team outperforms expectations twice in a row by a margin of 20 – 50 in week 1 and then 0 – 20 in week 2, they tend to just outperform expectations in week 3.  The Cats are currently sitting on +28 for R6 and +20 for R7.  The average “outperformance” in week 3 is 11 points, which would translate to a comfortable Geelong victory.

Cats almost certs, but not quite.

Maths (in points)

Ability: EVEN

Home Ground:  EVEN

Current Form:   GEEL + 6

Team Changes:  GEEL + 5

Psychological:    GEEL + 5

Freshness:    GEEL + 6

Injuries:       GEEL + 8

Total:     Cats by 30 points
Accumulator tip:  GEEL ~ 1.33.

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 30 points but the Pies won by 6.  Analysis was not the greatest.  The Pies were OVER the threshold in terms of injuries / outs and the Cats were close to the edge.  The loss of Steve Johnson pushed Geelong over the limit and made them vulnerable.  Plus the Cats were a bit off their game as was evidenced by the Bartel clanger to deliver the first goal to the Pies.  Then they lost Smedts in 2Q and underdone sub Josh Hunt came in earlier than desired.

Nonetheless, the Pies were very good and there ability to fight back under pressure was excellent.  This suggests that the psychological rating should have been a plus to the Pies.  And Andrew Krakouer finally hit form!



The Swans to atone

The GF rematch was looking a blow-out very early on last week and the Swans never really got back into the hunt.

Mumford has been named, but must be a doubt.  If he fails to come up, then White would come straight back in; and he did okay last week. 

The Dockers played is spurts last week against the Pies.  They did well to cover the early loss of Griffin.   They looked like getting overrun late, back kicked the last 5 goals after the Pies ran out of steam (and had limited rotations plus a couple of underdone players).  So the Pies game is probably a false reading in terms of form.

The most likely thing to happen now is for the Dockers to underperform due to their lack of big men.  They are now missing Sandilands, Pavlich, Griffin and Bradley.  Clarke is the big man coming in, but is underdone and would normally have been given a run in the WAFL first.  He hasn’t played since March.

The rude shock of being soundly beaten by the Hawks will, most likely, be a positive for the Swans this week.  They will be named as certs (with our winning run being only 1 now, it is easy to be a little bold).

Maths (in points)

Ability: EVEN

Home Ground:  SYD + 24

Current Form:   FREO + 1

Team Changes:  FREO + 3

Psychological:    SYD + 13

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:        SYD + 6

Total:     Swans by 39 points and CERTS
Accumulator tip:  SYD ~ 1.35.

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 39 points and the result was a draw.  Analysis was poor!!  The Swans were supposed to be “up” for this one.  The reason for them stopping when they had the game in control is a bit of a mystery.
Clarke for Freo was fantastic in his first game for 2 months.  The Dockers’ effort was even better, given that they were a rotation down later in the game after Walters limped off.
The ease with which the Dockers went forward in 4Q suggests that the Swans were having a downer.





The Blues without any confidence!

Still no GIBBS!!!! What is going on down there? He was taken off “as a precaution only” at half time in R5.  And Carrazzo has also been given another week.  Jamison has been named, but might be a risk to play after shoulder troubles last week.   At least Waite returns.

In this column last week, DANGER VOUS was mentioned in relation to the Blues.  And, sure enough, they lost to the Saints on a Monday night R7 again.  In R8, 2012, the Blues were then at home to the Crows, favoured to win, but got absolutely slaughtered.   This year, it is the Blues as favourites against ANOTHER S. A. team in Port.

It’s all just a bit too coincidental; and it’s enough to steer well clear of labelling the Blues as certs.

Port seemed to be “tricked” in the ruck last weekend.  They went in one ruck down against a team with an injured Maric.  But it didn’t work and now Lobbe comes back (well, onto the 7 man bench at this stage).   Logan is in their best 22 and has finally made it back from a knee problem.  Cassisi is a good in.

The trouble with Port is to know whether their bubble has totally burst (in which case a loss is certain), whether they can recover somewhat, or maybe they can hit back hard.  The latter would give them a chance.  And the thought of the Blues being suddenly vulnerable may spur them on. 

Given what happened to Carlton last year; and their sudden injury + suspension crisis, this game will be listed as an EXTREME variance game.  Blues are tipped to win, but not with any confidence.  Watch, however, for a bizarre result or wild scoring fluctuations in this game.

Maths (in points)

Ability: CARL + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:  CARL + 18

Current Form:   CARL + 5

Team Changes:  CARL + 1

Psychological:    PORT + 7

Freshness:    PORT + 3

Injuries:        PORT + 3

Total:     Blues by 17 points
Accumulator tip:  PORT ~ 2.95.

Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 17 points and they won by 18.  Analysis was very close in terms of margin, but there is a slight doubt as to whether the variance should have been labelled as extreme (and, by extension, this calls into question the Accumulator tip for Port).   The Blues dominated in terms of SC points, but were a bit inaccurate.  They also appeared to ease off in 4Q after playing on the Monday night, although Port showed a bit of ticker to hang in when the game was 99% gone.





The Tigers again

The Dees are having a rough trot.  Good news, however, in that they snared Daisy Pearce with their number one draft pick {this is actually for a women’s game prior to the Dees / Dogs game on 29 June; get along to see the best female players on the planet}.

Watts didn’t pass the fitness test, while Trengove got through, but could be underdone.  Jamar may also be underdone; of interest is that Gawn is in the 18, while Spencer is in the 7 man IC squad.  If Jamar doesn’t come up, then Spencer could replace him.

With Sylvia also out suspended, the Dees have too many senior players out to be a real threat here.  Dawes will be improved by the run.

The Tigers are fortunate to be playing the Dees, because they have injury concerns of their own (not as bad as the Dees and they have better depth).   Cotchin is back and may be not quite 100%, but could still rack up the stats vs Melbourne.

Tigers are certs, but not sure about the 12 goal victory everyone is picking.  More like a comfortable 7 – 8 goal victory.

Maths (in points)

Ability: RICH + 24 POINTS

Home Ground:     EVEN

Current Form:   RICH + 19

Team Changes:  MELB + 5

Psychological:    MELB + 2

Freshness:   EVEN

Injuries:        RICH + 11

Total:     Tigers by 47 points and CERTS
Accumulator tip:  RICH ~ 1.02.

Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 47 points and they won by 34.  Analysis was extremely good in this instance.  The experts had Richmond winning by 12 goals.  The improvement in the Dees came from a huge improvement in Aaron Davey and Dawes being a target.  The Tigers were probably a bit flat after a huge win in SA last week.  Despite the Tigers being less highly fancied than the experts, the call on them as CERTS was still justified.





The Crows

The Saints, as mentioned above in the Blues / Port write-up, are following a 2012 trend.  That is, they again beat the Blues in an upset in a R7 Monday night match.  In 2012, the Saints in R8 went to Perth to play the Eagles 6 days later.  They were 3 goal outsiders and got jumped early.  They trailed by 28 points at QT and 47 at the half. 

This time, they have the same 6 day break, but only have to go to Adelaide.  Once again, it will be assessed that it will a challenge for them to come up again after a Monday night match AND TRAVEL as well. 

There is also the fact that the luck went their way in Monday night’s game (but were still good enough to take the win).

Not that we are getting carried away with the Crows just yet.  They performed a Michael Slater last week in that they punished a second rate opposition.  That doesn’t qualify them for a final’s berth.  To illustrate this point, the Saints beat the Suns by 92 points and 95 points last year as well as the Giants by 128; and then finished 9th.

Both teams have winnable games coming up and this match could kick-start a finals’ campaign.  More likely is that both will miss finals this year.

Crows to win, without being too excited about them.

Maths (in points)

Ability: EVEN

Home Ground:  ADEL + 18 POINTS

Current Form:   ADEL + 5

Team Changes:  EVEN

Psychological:    STK + 5

Freshness:    ADEL + 6

Injuries:        ADEL + 1

Total:     Crows by 25 points
Accumulator tip:  ADEL ~ 1.33.

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 25 points and they won by 40.  Analysis was reasonably good here.  The 25 point margin always looked about right, but the Crows got away in 4Q when the Saints had a slight breeze.  Watters denies it, but the Monday night game probably had a slight adverse affect on them late in the match.




Best cert:  Let’s not miss the obvious – the Hawks (won comfortably), followed by the Dons (SORRY!!), Swans (looked winners until late, then drew) and Tigers (won well enough).

Best Outsider: Not a week to be excited about outsiders, but Port may be the best of a bad bunch (tried hard without looking likely).

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  The Swans to win by 20 points or more (looked okay until a late Freo rally ruined things!)

Happy tipping!  This is not a week to be too adventurous, with many favourites looking the goods. (but there were 2 big upsets, while the Roos and Dockers almost made it 4 big upsets!!)