Round 9, 2013

Round 9, 2013

Scores after round for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 7 (with 1 for tipping the Swans) and improved from 25,994 to 26,323 out of 65,235 tipsters

Accumulator: 7.11 and ranking improved 5,793 to 5,331 out of 11,791 tipsters

Last Man Standing Comp: Alive (with the Hawks winning easily) Streak:  tipped 2 of 4 certs correctly (with the Dons getting rolled and the Swans drawing) – streak now 2 (with the Swans draw neither killing off the streak, nor being labelled a win).  So the Streak is now at 2 comprising Hawthorn and Richmond.

50/50 tips: incorrect for the round (the Swans had to win by 20 points of more 7 out of 17 = 41% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Early thoughts for R9:  The Eagles, Hawks and Dockers all look like certs at this stage.  The Cats are likely to bounce back.  The Pies and Roos will probably be tipped.  The Tigers / Dons Dreamtime game is intriguing, while the Dogs and Lions appear to be the best of the outsiders.

Apologies for lack of table format

Round 9, 2013

Games                  Tip / By    Variance       Outsider is:        
1 COLL V SYD        COLL 13       HIGH             Some chance

2 PORT V GEEL     GEEL 27       HIGH             A tiny chance

3 GWS V WCE        WCE 22         EXTREME   A tiny chance

4 STK V WBD          STK 6             EXTREME   A big chance

5 RICH V ESS          ESS 27           HIGH             Some chance

6 BRIS V CARL      CARL 4         EXTREME   A big chance

7 HAW V SUNS       HAW 54        HIGH             No hope

8 NMFC V ADEL    NMFC 29      HIGH             No hope

9 FREO V MELB    FREO 79       HIGH             No hope

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions


The Pies probably

Collingwood was terrific last week when a significant underdog and showed some champion qualities in beating the Cats.  And since the Swans’ record at the MCG is not great (although they won one vital game there last year), the Pies will definitely be tipped.

The enthusiasm will not be all that high, however.  The Pies played the Cats when they appeared to be on a downer after the Cars / Dons game.  And the Swans looked similarly down last week after the GF replay.  So maybe the Pies’ win last week was not as good as it looked and the Swans can bounce back 2 weeks after playing the Hawks.  This factor will be assessed at ~2 goals, but it still leaves the Pies as the clear pick.

Two players who were expected back were Mattner and Heath (Collingwood) Shaw.  Neither has been named.  There may be some query on the fitness of Mumford.

Pies before the bye:  SYD, BRIS away, MELB, WBD (so win this and they could be well placed to be 9 and 3)
Swans before their bye: COLL,  ESS at home, ADEL away (so no soda games for them)

Maths (in points)

Ability: COLL + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:    COLL + 18

Current Form:  COLL + 3

Team Changes:  EVEN

Psychological:    SYD + 16

Freshness:  SYD + 3

Injuries:  COLL + 5

Total:     Pies by 13 points
Accumulator tip:  COLL ~ 1.57 (but Swans at ~2.48 is tempting).

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 13 points but the Swans won by 47.  Analysis was not good enough.  At the very least, the Swans should have been the Accumulator tip.  The error was caused by insufficient weighting given to the bounce back theory for Swans 2 weeks after the GF replay (and the fact that the Cats were on a downer after the clash of “the unbeatens” the week prior).  Buckley described his team as “sluggish”.  They looked terrible at times.  Swan is way off his best.




The Cats should rebound

Both these teams have had a reasonable winning run in 2013.  The Cats’ run came to an end last week, while Port hasn’t won since a miracle comeback at home to the Eagles.

Generally, when teams win 4 in a row or more and then lose one, they can struggle a bit the week after the loss.  However, top teams (such as the Cats) tend not to drop their bundle a great deal.  As such, the most likely outcome would be a battling win to Geelong.

Smedts was considered to be no chance after the injury last week, but has been named.  Watch to see if he gets on the plane on Friday.  Same for Steve Johnson, who would be more likely to play.

A bit of experience in Logan and Thomas returns for Port.  The Power will be re-connected at some stage, but it isn’t clear when.  But don’t write them off totally.  Ken Hinkley coaches against his old club for the first time.

Port before the bye: GEEL, WBD away (so pinch this and they could beat the Dogs on a roll)
Cats before the bye: PORT, SUNS at home, GWS away (so they are aiming to be 10 and 1 come their bye)

Maths (in points)

Ability: GEEL + 24 POINTS

Home Ground:     PORT + 15

Current Form:  GEEL + 8

Team Changes:  GEEL + 3

Psychological:    GEEL + 2

Freshness:  GEEL + 3

Injuries:  GEEL + 2

Total:     Cats by 27 points
Accumulator tip:  GEEL ~ 1.14 (but, again, this is lineball and Port at 5.75 is tempting).

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 27 points and they won by 48.  Analysis was good enough.  After the Friday night game, it made sense that the Cats would follow Sydney’s lead and hit back hard 2 weeks after their big game.  And they did.  The other question is if Port is in a “fatal” tailspin or not.  Johnson was considered to be in some doubt, but was the star of the show.





The Eagles, but not absolute certs

With Nic Nat starring, the Eagles squeaked over the line last week.  The history of teams winning with a kick after the siren suggests that they tend to underperform the following week.  The average underperformance for this millennium is -15.  This danger is compounded somewhat by the fact that the team sat back for the weekend in the knowledge that they had a guaranteed 4 points in the bag for R9.

Then they lose Adam Selwood and Waters to add to Wellingham and Schofield.  Embley starred in the WAFL and was expected back, but is an emergency.  All this takes them from certs to doubts.  It doesn’t bring us to a place where the Giants would be tipped outright, but it creates a small amount of doubt.  The battle for the Eagles is a mental one more than anything else.

For GWS, Treloar comes back after being rested.  Setanta makes it back, but only to the emergency spot.   They are expected to win maybe one game.  It is likely to be a home game and this is not on the top of the list, but is some fluky chance.

Giants before the bye:  WCE, CARL away, GEEL home, PORT home (just hoping for a win somehow)

Eagles prior to the bye:  GWS, RICH home, STK away (a chance to win all 3 and be in the 8 at half way)

Maths (in points)

Ability: WCE + 48 POINTS

Home Ground: GWS + 24

Current Form:  WCE + 19

Team Changes:  GWS + 5

Psychological:    GWS + 21

Freshness:  WCE + 6

Injuries:  GWS + 1

Total:     Eagles by 22 points and NOT certs
Accumulator tip:  GWS ~ 17.00 (outlandish, but the Lions got up last week at a similar tasty figure).

Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by 22 points and they won by 100.  Analysis was miles off!!!  The “fluky chance” that the Giants were predicted to have was gone by quarter time.  Losing Brogan prior to the game didn’t help them.  Setanta replaced him and was subbed off at half time.   It was expected that the Giants may improve once the multiple weeks of travelling in weeks 2 – 6; but we were all lulled by the honourable loss last week when the Giants got within 83 points of the Hawks.   Hawthorn was obviously having a down day following their GF replay win.





The Saints, but a big danger game

The Dogs have won 1 out of 19 since mid 2012, so it is hard to tip them with any great confidence.  But the Saints aren’t going much better.  They both have one good win each for the year.  And both were beaten by the Suns up in Brisbane.

To help St Kilda’s cause, Lenny is back, while the Dogs lose Cooney to injury and surprisingly drop Cross (he was the sub in R7, so it makes one wonder if there is an injury of some sort).

A slight technical positive for the Dogs is that they have just hit their second low for the season (“2nd time at 20 or more below expectations) last weekend vs Suns.  The trouble is that the spiked low is very shallow and very borderline (R7 was -16 and R8 -21).  Generally the shock of the 2nd low for lowly teams at this time of year can be a positive.

Also, the Saints are coming off 2 x 6 day breaks (having played on a Monday night 2 weeks ago)

With the possibility of a Dog upsurge from the technical charts, the Saints will be tipped still, but the Dogs in the Accumulator with enticing numbers.

Saints before the bye: WBD, NMFC, WCE at home (need to win all 3 to be back in the hunt; and a chance in all of them perhaps)

Dogs prior to the bye:  STK, PORT at home (both winnable)

Maths (in points)

Ability: STK + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:  EVEN

Current Form:  STK + 6

Team Changes:  STK + 8

Psychological:    WBD + 3

Freshness:  WBD + 6

Injuries:  WBD + 5

Total:     Saints by 6 points
Accumulator tip:  WBD ~ 4.50.

Post Match Review:  Saints were tipped by 6 points but the Dogs won by 9.  Analysis was very good.  The Saints were hot 5 goal favourites and they were only going to cover this margin had the Dogs capitulated.  The loss of Cooney due to injury was overrated and cause the Saints to be a very risky hot favourite!!

When Armitage pulled out before the game, it would have been assessed as a 50/50 game.  The Dogs were (correctly) tipped in the Accumulator at a juicy return of 4.5 points.   The combination of 2 x 6 day breaks for the Saints, the 2nd low for the Dogs (see above) and the good form of inclusions Addison and Hrovat got the Dogs over the line.





The Dons to hit form

Students of history will recall that the Dons have fallen to bits mid-season a bit in recent times.  When the Dons hit the skids in 2012 (began R10), their injury rating ranged from 15 to 22.   In 2011, they slumped in R11-14 and began with an injury rating of 20.  Right now, their injury rating is a healthy 6 (with lower numbers meaning fewer injuries & unavailable players) .

So the current mini-slump of 2 games is not really related to personnel. 
Theories abound re the ASADA deal.  Here is the most likely explanation.  The ASADA thing is a stress, but not a huge one.  The club was on a downer after the big game vs Cats and assumed that they would post a win over the Lions without being at their 100% best (not that one plans such things; it is just impossible to totally peak each week).

Note that for the Cats / Dons and Hawks / Swans games in R7, all 4 teams underperformed expectations the following week (Cats by 26 points and lost, Dons by 63 and lost, Hawks by 12 and won, then Swans by 17 and drew).

This biggest upset loss of the season will sting them into action and any thoughts of interviews draining them will be forgotten.

Hurley may be subject to a test, but Gumbleton can do a reasonable job in filling in

Now this could be all wrong, and therefore the Dons won’t be tipped with total confidence.  But expect them to be primed; and for Stanton to be better for the run last week.  One suspects they were planning to sub him off around 3QT with the game well won!!

Tigers before the bye: ESS, WCE away (so hoping to win at least 1)

Bombers prior to the bye:  RICH, SYD away, CARL, SUNS at home (a few challenges, but need to win >= 2 of the next 3 to be well placed)

Maths (in points)

Ability: ESS + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: EVEN

Current Form:  RICH + 7

Team Changes:  ESS + 1

Psychological:   ESS + 12

Freshness:  ESS + 6

Injuries:  ESS + 9

Total:     Dons by 27 points
Accumulator tip:  ESS ~ 1.77.

Post Match Review:  Bombers were tipped by 27 points and they won by 29.  Analysis was beautiful!!

This game was opposite to the previous one (Saints / Dogs).  In this case, the concerns on the Dons were overblown.  Too many experts assumed a 2 game losing streak (including an ABSOLUTE SHOCKER last week) was going to continue.  Again, it was another case of a team in a HUGE game in R7 playing poorly in R8 and hitting back hard in R9.

The loss of Ellis prior to the game (presumably due to leather poisoning) for Richmond was partially offset by the loss of Hurley for the Dons at half time.





The Blues, but a big danger game

Carlton fans were sure that rounds 5 – 10 posed no dangers.  But the easy part of the fixture can come back to bite you hard if you if your attitude drops or, as happened to the Blues, you have a bit of bad luck. 

And now the Lions are back in form – well, probably.  The Lions may have even been tipped this week, had Merrett and Maguire been picked.  In their absence, rookie ruckman Sam Michael at 199cm comes in.  Maybe Staker can go back for one week.

The Blues finally welcome back Gibbs (to the relief of the patient fantasy football players) and it is suspected that he will play this time.

The technical leads on Brisbane make this game an EXTREME VARIANCE call.   When a team has a run of losses at >= 4 losses, then they have a small win, they tend to outperform expectations the following week.   But!!!! The Lions were +63 points above expectations last week.   And when teams break a long run of losses with a win AND they outperform expectations to a large degree, then they tend to underperform the following week.   So it is unclear as to how to interpret the win last week.   Then again, the Staker goal was almost like an “after the siren goal to win” as it was kicked to put them 10 points up with less than 30 seconds left.  Without really knowing, the call is that the technical lead may be slightly negative for the Lions, but beware the extreme variance!!

The Blues are also coming off 2 x 6 day breaks and have to travel north.  This won’t help, but the good news is that they play at night and the humidity is forecast to be a bearable 60%.

A game to avoid if you can!

Lions before the bye:  CARL, COLL at home (hoping to snare at least one big scalp)

Blues prior to the bye: BRIS, GWS at home, ESS, HAW (so they are desperate to win the next two to go into Dons and Hawks with momentum)

Maths (in points)

Ability: CARL + 12 POINTS

Home Ground:     BRIS + 18

Current Form:  EVEN

Team Changes:  CARL + 6

Psychological:    CARL + 11

Freshness:  BRIS + 6

Injuries:  BRIS + 1

Total:     Blues by 4 points
Accumulator tip: BRIS ~ 2.75.

Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 4 points and they won by 13.  Analysis was reasonably good and the EXTREME variance call was justified by the wild swings in momentum.   And after the game we are still none the wiser whether the Lions were on an “upper” or a downer after their last win.





The Hawks are certs

No need to spend too much time on this one.  The only danger for Hawthorn is the lull factor, with another “easy” game to come vs Dees and then the bye.  But it is not likely that they will slacken off enough to lose this one – especially as their problem in 2012 was that they were chasing tail all year after being slow out of the blocks.  Now they have a chance to get to the bye at 10 and 1 and they should achieve that comfortably.

Hawks before the bye:  SUNS, MELB (looks easy)

Suns prior to the bye:  HAW, GEEL away, NMFC at home, ESS away (would hope to win at least 1, but a tough draw)

Maths (in points)

Ability: HAW + 36 POINTS

Home Ground:     HAW + 18

Current Form:  HAW + 5

Team Changes:  SUNS + 2

Psychological:    SUNS + 1

Freshness:  EVEN

Injuries:  SUNS + 2

Total:     Hawks by 54 points and CERTS
Accumulator tip:  HAW ~ 1.01.

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 54 points and they won by 26.  Analysis was reasonably good (a bit less than the experts’ tip of 11 goals).  The Hawks were probably correctly labelled as certs, despite giving fans a scare until mid 3Q.  But the Suns lost Lonergan before half time, then Brennan and May copped injuries during the match.  Remember the above discussions about Swans, Cats and Dons rebounding strongly after big games R7 and then playing poorly R8?  Well, it didn’t really apply to the Hawks because they are cruising down to the bye with games against lowly or expansion teams.  They play the Dees next week and then the bye.





Roos still hopping mad

The Roos looked liked winners for 99.9% of the match last week.   And while Kanga fans will remember the umpires from Friday night, the fact is that they also (as Brad Scott pointed out) had chance to close the match out.  Everyone remembers the Nic Nat mark and goal, but special mention should be made of the 4Q kick from Drew Petrie into 50 to nobody (it seemed) until Brent Harvey ran into the empty space to mark – and then goal.  What wonderful awareness!!

The major concern for them is how they will rebound from that cruel loss.  The history of teams being beaten by a kick after the siren suggests they tend to slightly outperform expectations the following week.   And when they do underperform, it is not by much in most cases.  This is good news for the Roos.  In fact, the most similar result in recent history was the Saints losing to Freo on a Friday night late in the 2005 season (when Longmuir kicked a sausage for the Dockers).  The following week, the Saints romped home by 139 points over a Lions team playing their final game for the year.   While Brisbane shut up shop early that night, it is a clear sign that the trip back from such a Friday night loss may help a team.

The Crows looked good last week late, but then again, the Saints had played Monday night.  They stopped late Monday night and also ran out of gas last Sunday (with the shorter break).  Maybe the Crows are back to really good form, but they are not totally convincing.

Let’s be adventurous and go for the Roos as certs.  If you are sitting on a huge run of certs, maybe you could forego this one as a cert.

Roos before the bye:  ADEL, STK, SUNS away (a chance to win all 3)

Crows prior to the bye:  NMFC, FREO at home, SYD at home, RICH away (finals on the line in next 4 weeks!!)

Maths (in points)

Ability: NMFC + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:     NMFC + 15

Current Form:   EVEN

Team Changes:   EVEN

Psychological:    NMFC + 10

Freshness:  EVEN

Injuries:  ADEL + 2

Total:     Roos by 29 points and CERTS
Accumulator tip:  NMFC ~ 1.46.

Post Match Review:  Roos were tipped by points but the Crows won by a point.  Analysis was correct until half way through the final quarter; then turned out to be dreadful.  SORRY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Having said sorry, please allow space for a little rant. The sub, Wright, almost single-handedly lost them the game:

1. He runs clear inside 50 late in the game and, instead of kicking a goal, he goes for a dubious pass to (a manned up) Thomas way out past the point post.

2.  Again, he breaks free and misses a relatively easy snap a few minutes later

3.  The Roos are 2 goals up with 2 ½ minutes to go and they have the ball deep forward.  Wright gives a lazy tackle and the Crows clear the ball.

Then, with 50 seconds to go, Petrie is given a free in defensive 50.  Atley, who had marked it, hands to ball back to Petrie.   All Atley had to do was to run to the vacant area to Petrie’s left and receive a chip kick.  The Roos showed no interest in any hard running to get an easy mark and chew up seconds on the clock.

Finally, although the Crows were “handed the win on a plate”, they were good enough to take it.  What about Kerridge!!  And also how about the fairy tale Petrenko goal in indigenous round?  He also kicked the previous behind to make the win possible.





The Dockers are certs of the week

We will save the best certs to last here.  The Dockers should win this easily.   The Dees were brave last week against a weakened Tiger outfit, but they are still a fair way off the pace.  

Dockers before the bye:  MELB, ADEL away (should win first one and have a good crack at the Crows thereafter)

Dees prior to the bye:  FREO, HAW, COLL (hard to see them winning any)

Maths (in points)

Ability:  FREO + 36 POINTS

Home Ground:     FREO + 24

Current Form:  FREO + 19

Team Changes:  MELB + 2

Psychological:    MELB + 2

Freshness:  EVEN

Injuries:  FREO + 4

Total:     Dockers by 79 points and CERTS OF THE WEEK
Accumulator tip:   ~ 1.01.

Post Match Review:  Dockers were tipped by 79 points and they won by 90.  Analysis was virtually spot on.  And they were the CERTS of the week.




Best cert: Freo (they won), then Hawks (they won) & Roos (they threw it away!!)

Best Outsider: Brisbane, then Dogs (they won!!) and Giants have a fluky chance (never a hope)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  Giants to win OR lose by less than 67 points (wrong – blown away early)

Dogs to win or lose by less than 27 points (always looked safe and the Dogs actually won outright)

Dons to win by more than 7 points (no problems here)

Roos to win by more than 17 points (looking good until the last few minutes)


Happy tipping!  This week looks harder than it is.  Expect an upset or two, as well as some big win by some of the favourites!