Round 9, 2014 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R9, 2014

By Penny Dredfell

Added 14 May 2014

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: hopefully, the analysis last week may have helped you tip the Swans. They won by 19 points and could’ve won by more.


Now for this week: this is the one week in which teams coming out of the bye play teams going into the bye.  The teams that have had the rest have a slight tendency to outperform expectations – on average doing about a goal better than expected.  But the sample is too small to draw any conclusions with any confidence.

So, while the results will be reviewed with interest, no bold predictions will be made.  The teams that are coming off the bye and playing teams about to have the bye are: Richmond (vs Melbourne), the Roos (vs Lions), Cats (vs Dockers) and Suns (vs Saints)

The Dons vs Swans game is worth a look.  The Swans are warm favourites, but there are some concerns about them.  Firstly, they got the Hawks at exactly the right time last weekend.  The Hawks were on the road and having their 3rd consecutive 6 day break.  They also lost Hodge before the game, Rioli during the game and Stratton may have been underdone.  All that suggests that the Swans may be overrated as far as the R9 game is concerned.

Now for the Dons! They have underperformed expectations in all 5 matches since they walloped the Blues in R3 (vs Freo -52, vs Saints -61 and upset loss, vs Pies -13, vs Dogs -14 & vs Lions -16).  It was suspected that the win against the Dogs, which broke a 3 game losing streak, may have been the catalyst to propel them into top form.  But their win over the Lions was underwhelming.  The average performance may have been due to the high humidity, or the fact that the Lions had had 2 games in a row at the Gabba. Or the ASADA news rearing its ugly head again.

The conclusion is either:
A. The Dons are about to hit form big time – which would see them do 6 – 10 goals bette than expected this weekend (= a win); or
B. The Lions match is as good as they can do; given the fact that the Swans beat the Lions by 79 points in Brisbane the previous week, this would give the Dons little hope.


Apologies that the analysis was not hugely helpful – except that it is advised NOT to tip the Swans as certs… and, the Dons may be under-tipped this week.  They probably have a slightly better chance than most expect.