Round 9

Data to be added Thursday 24 May, 2012

Round 9, 2012

Scores after round 8 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp 
Tips correct: 6 and cumulative: 54 winners and dropped back to 14,295 out of 72,078 tipsters (not flash!) Streak:  tipped 5 of 5 certs correctly, after crashing out in week 7, so the new streak is 5

50/50 tips: correct for the round (Lions won by over 33 points), so now at 7 out of 8 = 87% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

 Last Man Standing result: alive (Lions won easily)


Early thoughts for R9:  The Dogs and Lions caught the Suns and Giants at a good time.  Expect them to underperform expectations this week (Dogs vs Cats and Lions vs Roos).  The Swans are a huge chance to beat the Saints at Etihad as the Saints are coming off 2 x 6 day breaks and a trip to Perth; and they lose Stanley while McEvoy is still out! 



Game                  Tip    By     Variance        Outsider is

WBD V GEEL        GEEL 23          HIGH                    DOGS ARE A SMALL CHANCE 

RICH V HAW         HAW 35            HIGH                    TIGERS DON’T HAVE MUCH HOPE

SUNS V PORT       SUNS 12            EXTREME          SUNS ARE A HUGE CHANCE

STK V SYD               SYD  6              HIGH                    NO REAL OUTSIDER HERE

GWS V ESS              ESS 40              HIGH                    GIANTS NO HOPE

ADEL V COLL        ADEL 19         HIGH                    PIES A SMALL HOPE

NMFC V BRIS        NMFC 49          HIGH                    LIONS ARE NO HOPE

CARL V MELB       CARL 30         HIGH                    DEES A TINY HOPE

WCE V FREO          WCE 15           HIGH                    FREO SOME CHANCE



Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend 

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

Psychological:  includes teams about to peak or drop in form, players coming into form after injury, technical analysis observations, whether a team is really UP for the game or, alternatively, horribly flat; and other things not covered by the other categories.


Cats to bounce back

The Dogs have 2 x 6 day breaks with a trip last week to Darwin.  This makes it really tough for the Dogs and almost puts the game out of reach.  Also, the Dogs played the Suns last week when the Suns were on the road for the 2nd week in a row.  On a positive for them, Brendan McCartney will know the Geelong players well.  And maybe Cooney has been primed up for this game, although there is always a query on him this year (regrettably).  Cats by 23 points, but not quite certs, because there is a small chance they could be flat after losing the GF replay.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  GEEL + 30 POINTS (but both teams ratings are being reviewed)

Home Ground: Even   

Current Form: WBD + 1

Freshness:  GEEL + 12

Team Changes:  WBD + 9

Pyschological:  WBD + 6

Injuries:  WBD + 3

Total:  Cats by 23 points

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 24 points and they won by 21.  Analysis was terrific in this instance.  The correct team was selected but there were enough reservations about them to avoid calling them certs.



Hawks comfortably

Ironically, the last Tiger win over the Hawks was in 2008, the Hawks premiership year.  The Hawks are capable of going on a big winning run, with games against North, Port away and the Lions at home to come prior to the bye.  The danger for them is that they may begin to drop off in intensity.  This is unlikely just yet – maybe in 2 or 3 weeks.  Hodge has had more complaints than a geriatric hypochondriac, but the Hawks won’t need him this week.

The Tigers have been up for a while and last week was a big occasion game.  The danger for them is that they may be flat after just failing against the Dons.  The likelihood of this, plus the Hawks higher rating, makes the Hawks certs

Maths (in points)

Ability:  HAW + 30 POINTS

Home Ground: Even   

Current Form: HAW + 3

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  RICH + 1

Pyschological:  HAW + 5

Injuries:  RICH + 2

Total:  Hawks by 35 points and certs
Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 35 points but the Tigers won by 62.  The analysis was a million miles off here.  The worst thing (on this website) is to name a cert that loses.  SORRY!!  The one risk (mentioned above) on the Hawks was that they may relax, given their friendly looking draw.  That happened big time and Richmond made them pay.  The Hawks were lazy, selfish and undisciplined.  The Tigers appear to be on the verge of a breakthrough.  Vickery may be turning the corner and the long-awaited Griffiths looks a prospect.


Hard game to pick, Suns in an upset
Port won on virtually the last kick of the game last week (well, with under a minute to go) and teams that win in such a way tend to do poorly the following week (a letdown type effect).  On top of that, the Suns are back home after being on the road for 2 weeks in a row.  Two weeks ago, they ran out of steam vs the Giants in Canberra when Dixon and Swallow went off injured during the game.
A positive for the Suns is the experience of Mcqualter and the form of Horsley (both mature aged players).  Also, Rischitelli should be better off for 2 recent games back from injury.
Port “handed” the Suns their first ever win when they blew a huge lead to lose in Adelaide last year.  This may provide incentive for revenge, but it is over a year ago and at a different ground.  As an example of the “kick after the siren to win” theory, Westhoff had a shot for Port to win in the above Suns game in 2011 and missed.  The Suns celebrated like they had won a flag.  They then went to Etihad the following week (2nd week on the road as well) and were 15 goals to zip down at quarter time.
Port’s win over the Roos last week was terrific but Port is very hard to assess.  Are they “back”, or was this merely a blip?  As such, the game will be rated an EXTREME variance. 


Maths (in points)

Ability:  PORT + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: SUNS + 18   

Current Form: PORT + 4

Freshness:  PORT + 6

Team Changes: PORT  + 1

Pyschological:  SUNS + 12

Injuries:  PORT + 1
Total: Suns by 12 points
Post Match Review:  Suns were tipped by 12 points but Port won by 48.  The analysis was way off; and it really hurts when you tip a slight outsider and they capitulate like the Suns did.  The only saving grace is that the game was (correctly) labelled an EXTREME variance game.  Port, like Richmond, has convinced me now.  Not as much as Richmond, but Port has showed that they are not in the bottom 4.  For the Suns, Ablett had his lowest scores for the year.  Ditto, Zac Smith.  Mature aged and high priced recruits Fraser and Brennan cannot even get a game.  They play Melbourne in round 19!


Swans just
Milestone games are not usually mentioned due to their statistical irrelevance, but the Lenny Hayes 250th just might be worth something.  It keeps the Saints in with a chance.  The Swans are favoured because the Saints have had the dreaded trip to Perth last week with 2 x 6 day breaks.  Pike was a good “in” for the Swans last week and a good performance form him will go a long way to a Sydney win against a depleted Saints ruck line-up.  This is a very tricky game and the experts are divided on it.  The last time they met, the Swans put the Saints out of the finals race last year.  Swans by a goal

Maths (in points)

Ability:  SYD + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: STK + 15

Current Form: Even

Freshness:  SYD + 14

Team Changes: STK + 2

Pyschological:  STK + 6
Injuries:  SYD + 3
Total:  Swans by 6 points
Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 6 points but the Saints won by 28.  The analysis yielded a 3rd loser in a row (OUCH!!).  The Saints has no right to win this one in many ways.  They lacked the ruck stocks and had had 2 x 6 day breaks coming back from Perth.  But Jason (no Brownlow votes) Blake really stood up as a fill-in ruck.  Basically, they did in for Lenny (one of the most loved players ever) on his 250th.  


Dons without too much trouble
The contest has interest because of Sheedy’s connection with Essendon.  He appears to have rested some players last week in preparation for his first rematch against his old side (and Mark Williams also had an Essendon connection!).  Essendon’s website recorded this game as the “bye” briefly in the past week.  Fodder for the Giants pre-match address, no doubt!
The experts are tipping a margin around the 80 point mark and, while that may be a bit too high, the Bombers should come away with a win.  The rematch with the old coach will mean a lot to Essendon as well.  Maybe a chance to tie down the windsock!!  Essendon’s threatened mass restings did not really eventuate (to the delight of many DT+SC players).  The game will be interesting to watch, but the Dons won’t drop this one – even though they have been “up” for a long time. 

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ESS + 54 POINTS

Home Ground: GWS + 18    

Current Form: ESS + 19

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  GWS + 15

Pyschological:  GWS + 6
Injuries:  ESS + 6
Total:  Dons by 40 points
Post Match Review:  Dons were tipped by 40 points and they won by 66.  Analysis was just average but no harm done.  I thought that the Bombers may be just a little flat and that the Giants could push them a bit more than they did.  Kicking about 8 or 9 points prior to their first goal basically killed the contest.  At least the right tip was made and the Dons correctly tipped as certs.


Crows are on a roll – and will probably win
The Crows are flying at present and, on form, look to be certs.  The Pies have “snuck under the radar” with 5 wins on the trot including narrow ones over the Dons and Cats.  The tussle is spoilt, somewhat, by the absence of Swan and Reid.  And the Pies are bringing in 2 first gamers (Williams – promoted from the rookie list this week, and Elliott) when they should be bringing back Johnson, Ball or some other experienced player. This ensures that the Crows will be favourites.  The Magpies will be still given some chance, however, because:
A.  They have 2 days extra rest
B.   They don’t travel often, but travel well
C.   Buckley was Sanderson’s mentor, of sorts, in earlier times
Crow back-up players are starring in the SANFL and queuing up to make the team.  Only Douglas get sin this week; and Jenkins appears to be keeping McKernan out.

Crows by 17 points but not certs.   But if they get a break, they may well win big.  Rain is forecast, and often the team that gets off to a good start goes right on with it.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  COLL + 12 POINTS (but watching both teams re ability)

Home Ground: ADEL + 15  

Current Form: ADEL + 6

Freshness:  COLL + 6

Team Changes: ADEL  + 13

Pyschological:  COLL + 6
Injuries:  ADEL + 9
Total:  Crows by 19 points

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 19 points but the Pies won by 26.  Analysis was, again, a long way off.  The temptation to label the Crows certs was there.  Collingwood had “no right” to win this given the players they had missing.  It was probably their best win of the year.  Crows coach Sanderson said his team had been “up for a long time”, but they weren’t showing signs of tiredness the previous week.   Maybe the 6 vs 8 day break on the heavy ground had a bigger effect than anticipated (I allowed 1 goal advantage to the Pies for this fact).  And maybe the Crows began reading their own fan mail too smugly.  In any case, we only gave the Pies a chance due to their excellent travelling record.

Roos will win this one
The Roos may look back at rounds 7 & 8 and rue the losses that may cost them a finals berth.  Given their poor form recently + the Lions big win last week, this may appear to be another danger game.   But relax, North fans, this one is in the bag.
The Lions big win last week was helped by the Giants being on the road 2 weeks in a row and on a downer after celebrating their maiden home & away win.  They also rested several good players.  Furthermore, the match was the Lions’ 2nd consecutive home game.  Brisbane’s form prior to last week was ordinary.
Brisbane still do not have Hudson coming back and Longer will struggle against Goldstein (McIntosh is still injured)

The Roos may have been 8 goal favourites had it been played last week.  Now they are only 4 goal favourites but should win this easily. 

Maths (in points)

Ability:  NMFC + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: NMFC + 18

Current Form:  NMFC + 1

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  NMFC + 1
Pyschological:  NMFC + 15
Injuries:  BRIS + 4
Total:  Roos by 49 points and certs of the week
Post Match Review:  Roos were tipped by 49 points and they won by 16.  Analysis was looking good at half time, but the Roos dropped away dramatically in the second half.  This can happen to a firm favourite, but usually happens when they are on good terms with themselves (on a winning run or having just rolled a top team).  In this case, they were humiliated last week by Port’s comeback.  The coach says he isn’t worried, but the technical charts have alarm bells ringing – saying “sell, sell!!!”  Having said that, they were correctly designated certs and were never in danger of losing.

Blues to atone
The Blues must be relieved that they aren’t playing a top side this weekend.  They must win this one to resurrect their confidence (which the coach said had eroded in recent weeks).  The fans are still waiting for Waite.
Melbourne has dropped Davey and Sylvia; and that sums up how they are going.   These 2 should be among the top few in the club, but can’t get near it at present.
The most similar predicament to Carlton is the Saints in 2010.  They were the reigning possibly should have been premiers and hot favourites to beat Carlton on a Monday night game.  They played a struggling Essendon team the Sunday following and, again, underperformed and lost.   The week after, they finally got a 7 day break (just like the Blues this week) and went west to play the 2010 spooners Eagles.  They struggled early but drew away to win by 6 goals.  Expect something similar from the Blues.  And, if they follow the Saints form line, they will play a big role in the finals! 
But they won’t be picked as certs because they are too highly fancied.  If you are desperate to pick an extra cert, then make it the Blues.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  CARL + 42 POINTS

Home Ground: Even

Current Form: CARL + 6

Freshness:  MELB + 3

Team Changes:  MELB + 12
Pyschological:  Even
Injuries:  MELB + 3
Total:  Blues by 30 points

Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 30 points and they won by 58.  Analysis was looking perfect at 3QT.  But the Dees, so competitive for three quarters, simply gave up late in the game.  Still, no harm done, but maybe the Blues could have been called certs.  Surely McLean stays in the team now for Carlton.  PS: saw the worst boundary umpiring decision since Wayne Harmes 1979 today. The handball to Moloney at the forward 50 in the third quarter was clearly never out.  AFL, please confirm!


Eagles probably
The Eagles are gradually getting their team back together (Priddis returns) and are likely winners here, despite their form being just so-so.  But the concern is that Sumich had gone form the Eagles to Freo this year and will provide good insight for Lyon. 
Freo are just going at present.  McPhee has been named but the coach said he will face a fitness test on Friday. 
Freo have lifted in times past for derbies and they have Sumich, so the Eagles will be tipped without huge confidence.  Eagles by 15 points

Maths (in points)

Ability:  WCE + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: Even

Current Form: WCE + 2

Freshness:  WCE + 6

Team Changes: WCE + 3
Pyschological:  FREO + 12

Injuries:  FREO + 2
Total:  Eagles by 15 points
Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 30 points and they won by 58.  Analysis was just average here and the Sumich factor was probably too highly rated and perhaps the ability gap between the 2 teams is more than 3 goals.  At least the correct team was selected.



Best cert:  Roos (won) , then Dons  (won) and Hawks  (were really dreadful)


Best Outsider:  Suns clearly (terrible in the 3rd quarter and disappointing); Freo are some hope (disappointing)


Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  Roos by over 26 points   (looked a cert all day ut they faded badly AGAIN!)


Happy tipping!  This is another week when picking the favourites will generally stand you in good stead (but see Suns / Port game)