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Round 23

 

Data to be added Thursday 24 Aug 2012 EST (prior to team announcements due to unavoidable cirtcumstances)

Round 23, 2012

Scores after round 22 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 5 and cumulative: 141 winners (including bonus 2 points) and dropped back from 11,214 to 12,303 out of 73,225 tipsters.

Footytips.com.au Streak:  tipped 2 of 3 certs correctly (Blues were the culprits). 
The streak has now been wiped and back to 1 after the Cats won on Sunday.

50/50 tips: correct for the round (Tigers won by over 2 goals ), so now at 13 out of 22 = 59% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Sportingbet’s free Accumulator comp (This is like the Herald Sun 2011 weighted tipping):  A disastrous 3.65 points for the round and dropped back from 879 to 1,279 out of 11,857 tipsters (almost wiping out last week’s gains!).

Early thoughts for R23:  This is a good round if you are leading your footy tipping comp.  Easy winners galore here:

Crows over Suns, Roos over Giants, Pies over Dons, Dockers over Dees, Tigers over Port and Lions over Dogs

Likely wins to the Hawks and Cats.

The one hard game (lacking in incentive now) is Blues vs Saints

 

 

Game                 Tip    By     Variance       Outsider is

HAW V WCE HAW 38 EXTREME Eagles a very rough chance
GEEL V SYD GEEL 17 HIGH Swans a rough chance
ADEL V SUNS ADEL 87 HIGH Suns no hope
GWS V NMFC

NMFC 54 HIGH Giants no chance
ESS V COLL COLL 48 HIGH Dons no hope
FREO V MELB FREO 58 EXTREME Dees no chance
CARL V STK STK 6* EXTREME Tip subject to change < 6.00AM Friday
RICH V PORT RICH 62 HIGH Port no hope
BRIS V WBD BRIS 49 HIGH Dogs no hope

 

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

 

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

Psychological: includes teams about to peak or drop in form, players coming into form after injury, technical analysis observations, whether a team is really UP for the game or, alternatively, horribly flat; and other things not covered by the other categories.

Accumulator: is the same as the old Herald Sun weighted tip.  You pick a winner and the comp (Sportingbet, in this case) gives you the bookies odds for tipping the winner.  EG: in round 10 ESS v MELB, you would have got a score of 1.04 for tipping the Bombers and 12.00 for tipping the Dees.

 


1.  HAW V WCE

The Hawks to finish on top

Both teams are coming off 2 x 6 day breaks.  This makes the variance EXTREME.  Maybe the Eagles (with 2 trips east in that period) will fare the worse. As such, the possibility of a big Hawks win is slightly more likely than the Eagles significantly outperforming expectations.

The contrasting strengths and weaknesses also add to the variance – the Eagles rucks and tall forwards vs the Hawks strong midfield and forwards.

From a form and injury line viewpoint, the Hawks seem to be on track for a premiership.  Franklin, Mitchell and Gibson will all be improved by last week’s run.

There is a temptation to pick them as certs, but the EXTREME variance call will prevent them being tipped as such.

Expected important changes

WCE:

In: Lynch

Out: Rosa (injured)

Forecast:  Cool, showers, breezy

Maths (in points)

Ability: HAW + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: HAW + 24

Current Form:  Even

Freshness:  Even (but hard to pick as both are coming off 2 x 6 day breaks)

Team Changes:  Even

Pyschological:   HAW + 5

Injuries:   WCE + 3

Total: Hawks by 38 points

Accumulator tip: HAW ~ 1.26

 

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 38 points and they won by 25.  Analysis was good enough.  Actually, the experts got closer – predicting a 4 goal win.  But, since the variance was extremer, that is okay.  The fact that both were coming off 2 x 6 day breaks meant that there was always a risk on how the teams started and finished.  The Eagles were blown away early (down by 34 at QT), but finished well and kicked 5:3 to 3:1 in 4Q.   Although “Che” Guerra went down late and left the Hawks a man down.  Kennedy didn’t achieve much 2nd up from a long spell, but copped a foot injury.

 


2.  GEEL V SYD

The Cats, but not certs

The Swans had top spot sewn up early in the 2nd quarter last week, but now face the possibility of an away final next week.

You may remember that the Swans won in R23 (penultimate round in 2011) to break a home ground winning run by the Cats approaching infinity.  It should be noted that the Cats were coming off the bye and seemed a little flat that day.  The Cats’ “bye” round this year appeared to be the struggling win last weekend against the Dogs (when they underperformed by about 6 goals).  There are 2 likely follow-ups from the Cats’ average showing last weekend.

A: that is mimics last year when the hit top form thereafter.  In this scenario, they would be expected to have a comfortable win over Sydney

B: they have been up for a long time and their inability to finish off the Dogs suggest a downer is due.  If this is true, then the Swans would be slight favourites to win.

Option “A” would be more likely at this stage, especially with Selwood back.  It means that the Cats are the clear tip, but not certs.

Bolton is likely to play, but there may be some doubt if he can perform at 100%.  Maybe if there were a few weeks to the finals, he could have been given another week.  The may be a question mark over the Swans, having lost at home to the Pies and Hawks recently.

Expected important changes

GEEL:

In: Scarlett, Taylor Hunt, Selwood

Out: Varcoe & Smedts (both injured)

SYD:

In: Bolton

Out: Varcoe & Smedts (both injured)

Forecast: Cool, light wind (most pleasant day at the Cattery all year!)

Maths (in points)

Ability: SYD + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: GEEL + 15

Current Form:  SYD + 1

Freshness:  GEEL + 3

Team Changes:  GEEL + 6

Pyschological:   SYD + 3

Injuries:   GEEL + 3

Total: Cats by 17 points

Accumulator tip: GEEL ~ 1.68

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 17 points and they won by 34.  Analysis was better than the experts here.  They picked a 1 goal win to the Cats.  In the Cats’ favour was the late withdrawal of Smith for the Swans and the low output by LRT, who was picked despite injuring an ankle late R22.  His low output suggests that maybe he shouldn’t have played.  And Vardy did better for the Cats than most expected.

 


3.  ADEL V SUNS

The Crows by heaps

The Crows lost unexpectedly to the Lions recently, but this is nothing to concern fans – in the short term, at least.

They are tracking pretty well and will have no trouble beating the Suns.  Porplyzia looked scratchy last week and probably needed the run.

The Crows’ injury list is tinier than Tiny Tim, while the Suns pulled off a miracle win with a casualty list longer than that of General Custer at his last stand.

The Crows are the certs of the week.  Even if they rest players (DT+SC players, beware), they will win this by streets.

Expected important changes

ADEL:

In: Sloane

Forecast: Sunny, mild, light winds

Maths (in points)

Ability: ADEL + 36 POINTS

Home Ground: ADEL + 18

Current Form:  ADEL + 11

Freshness:  ADEL + 3

Team Changes:  ADEL + 2

Pyschological:   ADEL + 2

Injuries:   ADEL + 15

Total: Crows by 87 points and certs of the week

Accumulator tip: ADEL ~ 1.01

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 87 points and they won by 91.  Analysis was perfect!!  The experts tipped them by about 10/11 goals. They went wrong by giving the Suns too much credit for the win the previous week.  In reality, they were greatly restricted by injuries and were significantly overrated for this game.  Crows correctly labelled as certs.

 


4.  GWS V NMFC

The Roos to rebound

The Roos were terrible last weekend against a Pavlich-less (if such a word exists) Freo team.

The previous week, they overcame an injury-plagued Collingwood the previous week.

There are 2 possible reasons for the sudden downturn in form:

C (“A” has already been used above!): The Blues’ loss the previous night secured the Roos in the finals and they may have relaxed as a result, especially as the Blues were hot favourites

D: like a share that breaks through a barrier for the first time, it can go onwards and upwards (best example of this is Geelong in 2007 at 3 and 3 beating the reigning premiers in the Eagles by 6 goals and then going on a long winning run en route to a premiership) OR suddenly retreat below its new level of success (as if suddenly airsick).

Option “C” is more likely.  Whatever the case, they are BIG certs and don’t fear a repeat of the Blues Titanic-like disaster this week for North.  The real question is how they will do in the finals.

For North, there is absolutely no benefit in losing or winning small.  Their best outcome is a big win with the Cats losing.  Then they may snare 6th and a Melbourne final vs Dockers or Cats.  A loss or a moderate winning margin could send them to Perth.  So, with the Dockers game beginning after the Roos match, North are likely to have the foot flat to the floor on the autobahn to see how big they can win by.

The likely return of Cornes and Scully will strengthen the Giants and expect them to be in the contest for the first half, before dropping off.

Expected important changes

GWS:

In: Cornes, Scully

Out: McDonald (injured and likely to retire to coaching)

NMFC:

In: Wells and Grima to be tested but not risked

Forecast: Sunny, breezy, mild, small chance of rain

Maths (in points)

Ability: NMFC + 54 POINTS

Home Ground: GWS + 12

Current Form:  NMFC + 18

Freshness:  GWS + 3

Team Changes:  GWS + 6

Pyschological:  Even

Injuries:   NMFC + 3

Total: Roos by 54 points and certs

Accumulator tip: NMFC ~ 1.01

Post Match Review:  Roos were tipped by 54 points and they won by 38.  Analysis was very good.  This time, the experts underrated the new kids on the block.  The reason they went awry here was that the Giants’ team was a better one with team changes and the home ground advantage appears to have been ignored.  And Scully, Palmer + Folau all did well upon return.

 


5.  ESS V COLL

The Pies to win their way (probably to a double chance)

The Dons can’t wait for the season to finish.  Their injury run has been horrendous (and self-inflicted?  The club will review this in due course) and there are likely to be several sore players taking the field this weekend.

The Pies great travel record hit a snag last week BUT it was their 3rd road trip in 5 weeks, plus the Eagles were due for a big one.

The Friday night humiliation theory suggests that the Bombers will outperform expectations this weekend.  But the “can’t wait until it’s over” theory goes the other way.

On this basis, it is expected that the Pies will win easily and they are labelled as certs.  Goldsack and Swan will have benefitted from the run last weekend.

Expected important changes

ESS:

In: Howlett, Myers

Out: Davey, Lovett-Murray, tests for Hurley and Crameri

COLL:

In: Maxwell, Krakouer, Jolly

Wellingham subject to a test, but likely to play

Forecast: Cool, light breeze, a shower or two probably gone by game time

Maths (in points)

Ability: COLL + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: Even

Current Form:  COLL + 13

Freshness:  ESS + 6

Team Changes:  COLL + 6

Pyschological:   COLL + 14

Injuries:   COLL + 3

Total: Pies by 48 points

Accumulator tip: COLL ~ 1.17

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 48 points and they won by 32.  Analysis was okay, but the Pies were too highly fancied.  Zaharakis eventually came good, as did Cloke.  The SC numbers hugely favoured the Pies and the won by 4:8 – they should have won by more.  But maybe the Pies, knowing that they would win, took it slightly easy, given the likelihood of a Friday night final.

 


6.  FREO V MELB

The Dockers should be too good

All the teams competing for spots with the Dockers will have finished playing by the time the Dockers begin their game.  If the Cats lose, then the best thing for Freo is to win by as much as possible – to finish 6th with a home final.  The required winning margins will depend on the Cats and Roos results.

If the Csts win, then the Dockers will finish 7th or 8th.  The 8th spot will probably give them a home elimination final against the Eagles.  7th will give them a Melbourne elimination final against whoever finishes 6th:  Cats or Roos (and this will be known before Freo game time).  See

http://longggey.com/2012-team-previews/final-ladder-estimate

for a summary of the possibilities.

Neeld said the Demons would use the game as another opportunity to develop the style of play being implemented.  Sounds like 2013 development is more important than going all out for an improbable victory.  And a victory will probably harm the Dees as far as draft picks go.

For those wanting to tip margins in this game, it is suggested that you wait until just before game time (if possible) and be aware of the effect that Freo winning or losing by certain margins would have on their finals’ campaign.

The trouble is – winning within a narrow margin (even, say 1- 50 points, if it turns out that way) is difficult.  Do you go flat out and then ease off?  Or start slowly and then put the foot on the gas (as Carlton did last week)?  Things can go wrong.  What if the other team suddenly capitulates?  Or gets a run on?

The advice, after all that, is to stay away from margin tipping in this game.  The permutations are potentially complex and the effect of an entire season’s fate changing last minute for Freo is difficult to judge.

Even so, the Dockers will be labelled as certs due to them being ahead in almost every category.

Pav is listed as a test; he is expected to play and, as an added complexity, he may need to score a few to pass Tom Hawkins.  Also, we will need to give Jack Riewoldt a target to chase when Richmond plays on Sunday.

Expected important changes

FREO:

In: Pavlich

Out: Bradley (but to be tested)

MELB:

In: Jamar

Out: Green (retired)

Forecast: Clearing shower, mild, light breeze

Maths (in points)

Ability: FREO + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: FREO + 24

Current Form:  FREO + 19

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  FREO + 3

Pyschological: MELB + 7

Injuries:   MELB + 5

Total: Dockers by 58 points

Accumulator tip: FREO ~ 1.02

Post Match Review:  Dockers were tipped by 58 points and they won by 61.  Analysis was spot on, but the permeations (as Tony Jones once said when he meant PERMUTATIONS) meant that the Dockers had to lose or win by < 2 goals to finish 8th and play the Eagles in F1.  It all got too hard and they “went all out”.  And so, the normal analysis went close to the mark.  Although Jamar was probably a bit underdone.  To balance that, the Dockers lost McPharlin.

 


7.  CARL V STK

The Blues in a minor upset, but tough to pick

The Saints are a bit hard to assess.  They were pretty good against the Giants, but prior to that had been just average vs Cats and Dees after almost beating Collingwood.

The Blues had their presser on Thursday and gave Brett Ratten one more game.  The players (from an outside viewpoint) seem to like Brett Ratten.  And they may fire up after being challenged by the Pres (play well or else I’ll sing STAND BY YOUR MAN again!).

But the variance is ultra-extreme here.  They could go out and play like a premiership team – or it could end in tears of pain.  This is a tough one to pick for those up the top of tipping comps.  One to avoid if you can!!!

Expected important changes

CARL:

In: Robinson

Out: McInnes (injured)

STK:  Blake and Armitage are in the 18, with  Kozzie and Gram in the 25

Maths (in points)

Ability: CARL + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: Even

Current Form:  STK + 1

Freshness: Even

Team Changes: CARL + 1

Pyschological:  CARL + 1

Injuries:   CARL + 7

Total: Blues by 14 points changed 1.30AM Friday

Accumulator tip: CARL ~ 2.25 no change

Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 14 points but the Saints won by 15.  Analysis was…. The end result was painfully wrong (cost us 9 winners + 2 bonus points!!!).  But the analysis above was correct.  Trouble is, Carrazzo and Tuohy withdrew prior to the game. Then they lost Yarran and Judd before half time.  The lack of rotations (not to mention….. {well, it cannot be mentioned}) caused the Blues to run out of steam.  From a technical viewpoint, the Blues till almost pinched it.  At about 2 goals up, the Blues made a bad skill error going forward when looking likely to score.  The Saints whisked the ball down the other end for a goal.  A Carlton goal may have caused them to go onwards and upwards.

The golden rule is:  sometimes your analysis will be right, but you’ll get punished for it.  The theory that the Blue boys would play for Ratten was correct.  They just ran out of troops; especially experienced ones.

But maybe the predicted margin was too great because the “ins” for the Saints (Gram and Armitage) were underrated – and both did well.

 


8.  RICH V PORT

Tigers to finish 11-11

Port was pretty good last week until Lobbe began to struggle with injury.  That was their last chance for a win.  They were up for that one and will, undoubtedly, be flat this time.

Conversely, the Tigers are finishing on a high.  Not too much needed on this one – Tigers easily and certs

Expected important changes

RICH:

In: Griffiths

Out: White (injured)

PORT:

In: Hartlett (back from suspension), Redden (if Lobbe fails to get up)

Out:  Lobbe (test)

Forecast: Cool, mostly sunny, breezy

Maths (in points)

Ability: RICH + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: RICH + 18

Current Form:  RICH + 17

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  RICH + 2

Pyschological:   RICH + 12

Injuries:   PORT + 5 (in terrible shape, but getting slightly better, whereas the Tigers have put a few away for the season)

Total: Tigers by 62 points

Accumulator tip: RICH ~ 1.10

Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 62 points and they drew with Port.  Analysis was not good.  This is the second time that the Tigers have had a Friday night win and then underperformed the following week.  So the psychological should have been in Port’s favour.  However, it was assumed that Port would be on a downer after the previous week’s narrow home loss.

A big factor was also the 2 early injuries to Richmond – leaving them one man down.  But, even before that, they seemed to struggle to Port away early when they had them down.  To quote Patti from Reservoir, the effort was “SOOOOOOOOOOOOO RICHMOND”.  Port should use Rodan as the SUPERsub every week!!  Oh, and inclusions Redden + Hartlett both excelled for Port.

 


9.  BRIS V WBD

The Lions to continue winning run

The Dogs were pretty good last week and, for a change, didn’t get blown away late in the game.  But both teams had injuries and the Cats may have had more injury dramas that day.  And the Cats were on a partial rest that day.

The Lions had a struggle to beat Port last week, but will cover the tired Dogs.

A positive for the Dogs was that Cooney returned his best numbers since R5.

Expected important changes

BRIS

Nothing significant

WBD:

In: Lake

Out: Giansiracusa (Wayne Jackson’s favourite player)

Forecast: Warm, light breeze, rain unlikely, humidity not an issue

Maths (in points)

Ability: BRIS + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: BRIS + 18

Current Form:  BRIS + 11

Freshness: Even

Team Changes: Even

Pyschological:   BRIS + 12

Injuries:   WBD + 4

Total: Lions by 49 points

Accumulator tip: BRIS ~ 1.18

Post Match Review:  Lions were tipped by 49 points and they won by 67.  Analysis was excellent, given that the experts had the Lions as 5 – 6 goal winners.  The mistake made by the experts was overrating the Dogs’ effort against Geelong.  It is noted that the Cats outperformed expectations this week and the Dogs underperformed.  So the Cats vs Dogs score last week was a false lead.  Lake came in for the Dogs after being doubtful – and struggled.

 


Best cert: Crows, then Roos, Freo, Pies, Tigers and Lions (all won comfortably, except for the Tigers who drew – a draw is good enough in most comps)

Best Outsider: Perhaps the Blues (gallant), Swans have some chance (not close) and the Eagles are a rough outside chance (blown away early)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): The Crows to win by over 11 goals (did it easily!)

Happy tipping!  This is a good weekend for favourite tipsters.  Most favourites look the goods.  If you are in 2nd place, may be good to go conservative and hold onto second.  Just pick the Blues / Saints one right.  If you ABSOLUTELY MUST pick another roughie, then maybe the Swans; then maybe, maybe, maybe the Eagles.  But you are more likely than not to get burned with the Swans and Eagles.