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Sydney 2010

Sydney (updated 24 Mar 2010) 

Time poor summary

8 wins last year. Hard to analyse, but about the same this year.  Approx 9 wins and 11th.

See possible R1 team selections at the bottom of this page.

 

More detailed Analysis

Won first NAB Cup match for several years

For years, the Swans began the season slowly (losing EVERY NAB Cup game), struggled through the first 6 or so rounds and were written off.  Then they would inevitably come good just to make the experts look silly.  So how does one (as prince Charles would say) rate them this year; in a year when Paul Roos has acknowledged he is stepping down as coach?  And then, just to make it tougher, they win a NAB Cup game and almost beat the Saints in round 2!

 

The Swans have had a more intense than normal pre season – possibly because 2009 was the only full year under Roos when the Swans did not play finals.  So an early exit paves the way for an early start the next year.  The players seem to respect the coach greatly and will want to play for him.  This should ensure a reasonable start to 2010 (which is a mixture of tough and winnable games), but not enough to challenge for the top 8. And if they drop off the pace, it may come down to big farewell games in rounds 21 (last home game – against the Dogs) and round 22 in Brisbane.

 

The end of last year saw many player movements.  The biggest loss was the involuntary one of Jolly, but other trades to occur were Buchanan to Brisbane, Hall to the Dogs while Barry, O’Loughlin and Crouch retired. Luke (NOG) Ablett was one of the delisted.  They then picked up Bradshaw on the cheap, and snared Josh P Kennedy (from Hawthorn), McGlynn, Mumford (the young replacement for Jolly) and Seaby (an older ruck option).

 

The average age of the top players is high and suggests that not much natural improvement will come from the list.  This is highlighted by a plethora of mainly minor injuries to fringe / improving players: Bird, Meredith, Johnston, Vespremi (not listed as injured but has not played a NAB Cup nor challenge match yet) while others had interrupted pre seasons.

 

A positive is the form of Gary Rohan who is in the mix for round 1 and Malceski is moving freer this year (he was not at his best after returning from the radical knee surgery last year).  Also welcomed back is Kennelly and seems to have fitted in well again.

 

Players to buy:  Seaby is relatively cheap and doing well early.  Mumford had an injury in the pre season so Seaby is tipped to have the better year; Malceski seems a bargain pick as well; Kennelly

Don’t expect too much from: Rhyce Shaw (interrupted pre season and second year at his new club)

9 wins + / – 3 wins and 11th.

Possible Round 1 team:

Certs

Bevan, Paul

Bolton, Craig

Bolton, Jude

Goodes, Adam

Grundy, Heath

Jack, Kieren
Kennelly, Tadhg

Kirk, Brett

McGlynn, Ben

McVeigh, Jarrad

Malceski, Nick

Mattner, Martin

O’Keefe, Ryan   *

Richards, Ted

Roberts-Thomson, Lewis

White, Jesse

Shaw, Rhyce  *
Seaby, Mark

 

* = injuries pre season

 

 

Likely

Barlow, Ed

Jetta, Lewis

Moore, Jarred
Mumford, Shane   *B

* = injuries pre season

 

Fringe

Kennedy, Josh P.

Rohan, Gary

Smith, Nick

 

Missing Injured

Bird, Craig

Bradshaw, Daniel (test, knee)

Veszpremi, Patrick (mystery injury – missed entire NAB series)