Tigers 2012 St K 1997
Tigers 2012 following Saints 1997 – by Penny Dredfell
As mentioned in the preview of round 6, the Tigers are following a similar pattern in 2012 to the Saints in 1997.
The Saints finished 10th in 1996 and weren’t expected to be finalists in 1997. They were 1 and 4 in R6 when they met the 1 and 4 Dees. They were slight favourites and whipped Melbourne by 86 points in that match and then won rounds 7, 8 and 9. The Saints finished on top in 1997 and made the grand final.
Neil Balme was the Melbourne coach in 1997 and was removed midseason. Port’s Matthew Primus is now under pressure.
Now before Tiger fans go buying grand final tickets, 1997 was a weird year. The top 4 in 1997 (Saints, Cats, Dogs and Crows) finished 10th, 7th, 15th and 12th in 1996. The top 4 from 1996 (Swans, Roos, Lions and Eagles) ended up 6th, 7th, 8th and 5th in 1997.
Having said that, only the Eagles (from the top 4 in 2011) are currently in the top 4 right now.
The technical reading of the Tigers suggests that the Port win may be the springboard to bigger and better things in 2012. In order for the technicals to hold, they would need to beat the Swans this week (R7).
As it is now, they would be favourites in the following games for the rest of the year:
R11 Freo home
R12 Giants away
R15 Dees
R16 Suns home
R19 Lions away
R20 Dogs home
R23 Port home
And they would be given some chance to win:
R10 Saints
R17 Roos
A win in all these and the Swans this week would give them 12 wins and a chance at finals.
They do get the Swans without Mumford and Goodes, but the Tigers aren’t really the team that can take advantage of the lack of ruck stocks.
Richmond beat the Swans easily at the MCG last year and also won narrowly at the G in 2010. Does the history of this give the Tigers a better chance? No, in this case. In 2011, the Swans played Richmond when the Swans were on the road for the second week running.
In summary, the technical analysis isn’t strong enough to be overly confident of the Tigers beating the Swans. But if they do, they are likely to be finals contenders.